Happy AnniversaryOne year ago this week, our very own Peter Patrick began writing a column on new DVD releases. Largely based in and around Oscar winners, the column has slowly evolved to what you read today. My special thanks go to Peter for all his hard work and consistent dedication to helping me improve this site for readers. Feel free to visit the DVD page and go back and take a look at all Peter has written for us. Congratulations on One Year at oscarguy.com! -Wesley Lovell (May 6, 2008) |
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Key Dates Announced for 81st Academy Awards
I know I've been a long time in updating, but there hasn't been a lot going on. When I get some other things in order, I will try to make an effort to post like a blog, but time is a bit confined presently. Today's announcement comes directly from the Academy. They have announced the dates for this year's Academy Awards.
Mon. Dec. 1, 2008: Official Screen CreditsFri. Dec. 26, 2008: Nominations ballots mailed
Mon. Jan. 12, 2009: Nominations polls close 5 p.m. PST
Thu. Jan. 22, 2009: Nominations announced 5:30 a.m. PST, Samuel Goldwyn Theater
Wed. Jan. 28, 2009: Final ballots mailed
Mon. Feb. 2, 2009: Nominees Luncheon
Sat. Feb. 7, 2009: Scientific and Technical Achievement Awards presentation
Tue. Feb. 17, 2009: Final polls close 5 p.m. PST
Sun. Feb. 22, 2009: 81st Annual Academy Awards presentation.
-Wesley Lovell (April 15, 2008)
Acceptance Speeches
Thanks to the Academy providing transcripts of all on-stage and backstage acceptance speeches, I have compiled all of these and placed them in a new section on the 80th Oscars page. If they continue doing this, you will now have a brand new feature of this site to look forward to every year.
And here's what I'm currently working on. Besides trying to get a handle on this year's new films and what could be hot, I'm also working on a system to rank Oscar winners according to the various factors we often attribute to potential Oscar nominees and winners. This will take some time as I have to compare past years' performance and so forth, but when it's done, it may shine a light on the more statistical aspects of the Oscars. In addition, I'm also trying to finalize my section on Oscar nominees individually so that we can have a new set of statistics (this will also allow me to fill those statistics sections I've had up for some time).
-Wesley Lovell (February 29, 2008)
Post-Oscar Wrap Up
It's been three days since the 80th Academy Awards were presented at the Kodak Theater at Hollywood and Highland. My post-Oscar analysis is now posted under the 80th Oscars link to the right. The article goes over the best and worst of the ceremony and the winners.
You may also notice that the links to the right have decreased in number. With most information about the 80th Oscars already posted, I thought it necessary to reduce the congestion of links and have only one for the 80th Oscars. Nothing but the 80th Oscar links were removed, so you'll still have the same access you always have.
I'm still working through ideas of how to keep the site fresh other than our traditional weekly updates and may be starting a weekly 81st Oscars forecast post looking at the latest releases, what their Oscar chances are and glimpsing ahed into Oscar's future. There are other ideas rolling around in my head, so I'll let you know as soon as I know something more. Until then, just enjoy the results of a long, yet short Oscar season and get caught up on all the 2007 films you haven't had a chance yet to see.
-Wesley Lovell (February 27, 2008)
The 80th Annual Academy Awards
The Awards have all been handed out and the 80th Ceremony is finished. There were very few surprises, a few nice moments and some poor choices, but all in all, everything went better than could be expected on a two week notice (with the Writers strike just ending about that long ago). For a full list of the winners, click the 80th Oscars link to the right. I will be working on my impressions of the ceremony and the awards this week and as soon as it's ready, I will be posting it here.
-Wesley Lovell (February 24, 2008)
Independent Spirit Awards, Sound Editors Guild and the 80th Annual Academy Awards
This is the magic day that everyone has been waiting breathlessly for. Ok, maybe not breathlessly since most of the races seem hopelessly locked, but we get excited simply because it is the one day of the year where the best in film (always debatable) is recognized. It's a medium all Oscar enthusiasts love. And our love gives us the unique opportunity once a year to complain and bicker over what the Academy did and did not do right.
Tonight, I will be updating the winners LIVE. Every time one is announced, the following link will be updated. You can just sit on the page if you like or you can join us in the Unofficial Academy Awards Discussion Board and chat about the winners as they are announced. It's always a fun thing to watch people complain or rejoice about the choices being made.
To help prime you a touch for tonight's ceremonies, the Independent Spirit Awards and Sound Editors Guild each announced winners yesterday. Those winners have been posted in the Precursors section to the right. In addition, the latest tributes are up in the Tributes section, our first update since the page went live at the beginning of the month.
So, stick around for the festivities of the 80th Annual Academy Awards tonight on ABC.
-Wesley Lovell (February 24, 2008)
The Final Article, Costume Designers Guild and Final Predictions
It's been a long season. It's also been a short one. The truncated awards year has made things sweep by quickly, but when I look at all the frustration and irritation some of the results have generated, it seems like a much longer time. However, in just 4 short days, everything will be over.
Today, I bring to a close my annual predictions article. Looking at the top six categories, you'll find several locks, a few potential surprises and a lot of hope for a shocking outcome. But, in the interest of being fair, my final article, found in the 80th Oscars section, goes into detail on each film and performance and the chances they have of triumphing on Oscar night.
I have also posted my final predictions (well, as final as they can be. I can't imagine making a change this late in the game). I'm not 100% confident on everything, but I'm 95% sure I have good, solid choices. The Costume Designers Guild has also announced its winners and those have been posted in the Precursors section and the Tallies in the 80th Oscars area have also been updated.
-Wesley Lovell (February 21, 2008)
Ceremony Information and The 80th Academy Awards: The Second-Tier Categories
Today, my second article arrives on the internet focusing on the non-Best Picture Best Film categories (Foreign Language Film, Animated Film and Documentary Feature) as well as the two music categories and the two writing categories. It continues my look into the race and what the most likely outcomes are and a bit of what it means.
I'll have the final article up tomorrow, so stay tuned. But if you're looking for a distraction in the meantime, you can check out the Ceremony page on the 80th Oscars page (which is, coincidentally, where the article above appears). It has all the scheduled presenters, details about the ceremony itself, the song performances and the nominations presentation. Good luck and keep those predictions going. We're not out of the woods yet.
-Wesley Lovell (February 20, 2008)
The 80th Academy Awards: The Technical Categories
The first in my three-article series looking at the year's Academy Awards is now up in the 80th Oscars section. I take a look at the eight tech categories that make up the backbone of any Oscar sweep. They are a lonesome bunch this year, like in recent years, with no juggernaut to attach themselves to. The article looks at each nominee in varying amounts of detail and covers my personal thoughts on how the year's closets contenders may fair on Oscar night.
The second article should be up tomorrow and, with luck, I'll have the final one posted Thursday, giving you a full weekday to digest my picks before placing your money down on most prediction pools.
-Wesley Lovell (February 19, 2008)
American Cinema Editors and Poll Closure
The American Cinema Editors weighs in on the Oscar race and says that The Bourne Ultimatum is the best edited drama of the year. The bestowed their Comedy/Musical prize on Sweeney Todd and their documentary trophy went to Sicko.
It's finally coming to a close. This Tuesday, the Costume Designers announce their winners, but it will be too late to influence the Academy's decision. Those decisions must be handed in on Tuesday as the Academy Awards Polls close for the 80th Awards.
-Wesley Lovell (February 18, 2008)
Upcoming Updates, Art Directors and Cinema Audio Society Announce Winners
The Art Directors Guild and the Cinema Audio Society have cemented the love for No Country for Old Men with awards from both groups. The ADG picked it for Contemporary Art Direction giving its Period award to There Will Be Blood and its Fantasy honor to The Golden Compass. This evening we should also have the results of the American Cinema Editors Awards.
With the sudden announcement of all presenters and performers last Thursday, I have not had a chance to update that page. I will get to it this week, but the more important update will be my traditional pre-Oscar article series covering an examination of each category and the possibilities for each. These will be posted Monday, Wednesday and Friday (should I get the Monday one done in time). Also, my final predictions will go up with the release of the final article in the series and will include my predictions for the odds of each film winning the award. We can all hope for a surprise, but I don't think we're going to get much of that this year.
-Wesley Lovell (February 17, 2008)
The British Academy Awards Announced
Yesterday, the British Academy of Film & Television Arts announced its awards for 2007. At the top of the list was Atonement which topped their nomination list, but came away with only two trophies. For a full list of winners and the addition to the tallies section, visit the Precursors and 80th Oscars page respectively.
-Wesley Lovell (February 11, 2008)
Writers Guild of America, Online Film & Television Association and the Annie Awards
The Writers Guild of America confirmed what we already knew last night: Juno as the frontrunner for Original Screenplay and No Country for Old Men as the frontrunner for virtually everything else. The only semi-surprise was the award for Documentary writing that went to Taxi to the Dark Side.
The 12th Annual Online Film & Television Association winners were revealed just this morning. There Will Be Blood topped the list, one of the few it has managed to win since the season began. The org hasn't been much of a Best Picture forecaster in the last few years (picking films like Children of Men and Brokeback Mountain, but several other categories look like solid predictions.
The Annie Awards went for a near clean-sweep by Oscar frontrunner Ratatouille, taking home 9 prizes, missing only one category in which it was nominated, which it lost to Surf's Up. The film also managed to capture wins for Short Subject and Video Games.
The winners can be found on the Precursors Page and to see where the new tallies for all films stand, check out the 80th Oscars Page.
-Wesley Lovell (February 10, 2008)
Producers Guild Winners, Vancouver Critics Nominations
The Producers Guild of America decided they wouldn't throw a wrench into this year's festivities and crowned No Country for Old Men Best Picture. The group that has a tendency to surprise everyone went with the long-time critical fave, pushing it into a locked position for the Best Picture award. We can hope for a shock on Oscar Night, but don't expect one.
The Vancouver Film Critics Circle also announced nominations. They have international awards that closely resemble most of the American critics plus separate categories for Canadian films. The only quesiton is where is Away from Her in their list?
-Wesley Lovell (February 2, 2008)
Top Ten of 2007, Producers Guild of America and Re-Organization
In addition to today's typical Previews update, I've finally finished work on my Top Ten of 2007. There are still films I haven't seen, so the full list for 2007 could change, but as the year's second month has already begun, it's important for me to get my thoughts on paper. You can find my article on the 2007 Reviews page just under the picture on the right.
The Producers Guild of America will announce its Best Picture, Best Animated Feature and Best Documentary awards tonight. I will try to update this page as soon as they are announced, but you can always find the data quickly by logging into the Unofficial Academy Awards Discussion Board (UAADB) to find out. Just click on Discussion above to start working your way there.
As you can see, there's a bit of an alteration today with our site. The Quick Glance Updates have been shifted so they don't obstruct all of the newest posts. Feel free to use the contact page to send me your thoughts. This isn't necessarily the final configuration or even the final graphics, so expect more changes in the next few weeks as I put the finishing touches on them.
-Wesley Lovell (February 2, 2008)
Screen Actors Guild Awards
The SAG Awards were presented tonight and most of the critics' faves picked up trophies with the exception of Supporting Actress where sentimental favorite Ruby Dee walked off with the big prize. I'll be updating my predictions based on these wins some time Monday or Tuesday at the latest. Then, we'll have to wait for the PGA awards on Saturday to firm up a number of other predictions. For a full list of winners, check out the 80th Oscars page above.
-Wesley Lovell (January 27, 2008)
Online Film & Television Association Film Nominations
The 12th Annual Online Film & Television Association Film Awards nominations have been announced. Their selections for best of the year diverge from the Academy's on a number of fronts. After beginning its career as a sort of Oscar precursor, the OFTA has consistently selected high calibre winners and nominees the likes of which the Academy has sometimes been afraid to nominate. As is consistent with their choice of Children of Men as Best Picture of 2006, this year's list offers up an eclectic list of films and performances that will compete to win the OFTA's 12th annual prize. The organization may be small, but it is composed of film and awards enthusiasts from around the world. Find out the winners on February 10. Find out the nominees by checking out the link to the OFTA website in the Resources/Other Sites section or by going to the 80th Oscars page and selecting Precursors.
Tonight, the first kudos cast of the year presented by members of the industry. The Screen Actors Guild award winners will be posted here and in the forums live.
-Wesley Lovell (January 27, 2008)
Directors Guild of America & American Society of Cinematographers Awards
Joel & Ethan Coen win the Directors Guild of America.
This just in: Robert Elswit is the winner for There Will Be Blood.
-Wesley Lovell (January 26, 2008)
Directors Guild of America Award
They've started giving out prizes and so far, the only plaque for feature films I've seen is to Paul Thomas Anderson and from the looks of it, it's the silver nominee's plaque. So, we've got three more to eliminate now before we know who wins. Of course, that is if they don't give out silvers to everyone and then announce a gold one at the end. We'll have to wait (and wait and wait and wait) and see.
I've just confirmed (found photos of two pictures of Martin Scorsese with two different types of plaquest last year) that all nominees are presented nominations plaques first, then after all five (or in this case, six) have silver ones, they give out the big gold one.
-Wesley Lovell (January 26, 2008)
Motion Picture Sound Editors and Other Updates
The Motion Picture Sound Editors have announced their 2007 nominations in six categories. You can find those listed in the 80th Oscars section under Precursors. Additionally, I've updated this week's previews, posted some new posters you can buy and even put up three brand new reviews.
Stay tuned later this evening to find out who wins the American Society of Cinematographers and Directors Guild of America awards.
-Wesley Lovell (January 26, 2008)
Prediction Averages and Box Office Results
We have a small update today. I've posted my averages for my predictions, which you can find on the Oscars page as a link to Predictions Success Rate. I've also updated the box office results from over the weekend. If you haven't already found my first set of predictions, visit the 80th Oscars Page and take a look at the Winner Predictions page.
-Wesley Lovell (January 23, 2008)
The Academy Award Nominations
After a long season, the Academy Awards Nominations were announced and as always, there were a few surprises. Check out the full list at the 80th Oscars link above.
I've posted commentary on the 80th Oscars page under Nominations Commentary. Just click the 80th Oscars link above.
-Wesley Lovell (January 22, 2008)
Ineligibility and the Academy Awards
For reasons that make sense to virtually no one, the Academy's music branch has ruled There Will Be Blood, Into the Wild and Enchanted ineligible for Best Original Score. Variety has the full story and explanation. My predictions have now been updated to reflect this change.
-Wesley Lovell (January 21, 2008)
The 24-Hour Rush
The sense of excitement is in the air. The most unpredictable Nominations period in years culminates in less than 24 hours. At 5:30pm Pacific, we will learn who the nominees for the 80th Annual Academy Awards will be. To give myself a few hours to breathe before, I have finalized my nominations predictions for this year. They are up at the Hopefuls Quick Link above. I also updated the Oscar Morning Primer based on those predictions. You can find that on the 80th Oscars page.
I know I'm excited and I hope you are too. Tomorrow morning, I will be posting the nominations immediately following the announcement. They will go up first in the Discussion Board, then be finally updated here. So, tune in tomorrow morning and find out who the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences thinks are the best of 2007.
-Wesley Lovell (January 21, 2008)
Oscar Morning Primer
There's something profound about waking up early and sitting down to watch the live announcement of the Academy Awards nominations. I've been doing it for several years. Let me help you. In the 80th Oscars section above, you'll see a new link called Oscar Morning. There, you will find a primer for following the early-morning announcements. It features a section you can print out and follow along. While I have some personal comments and my current predictions are highlighted, the article is mostly unbiased examinations of the races that will be announced.
For my actual personal take, I have an update to my Nominations Predictions (also called Oscar Hopefuls) in the works and it should be ready by Monday. There, I will try to dissect each race and boil it down to the contenders I think will be nominated plus a few potential shocks we might hear read out on Oscar Morning. Until then, enjoy the primer and start working on your own predictions.
-Wesley Lovell (January 18, 2008)
Costume Designers Guild and Pre-Nomination Information
Sometime between when I last checked their website and now, the Costume Designers Guild have changed their nominations announcement date. However, the nominations are now posted at the 80th Oscars section above. Check out the nominees and note the exclusion of Best Picture contenders No Country for Old Men, There Will Be Blood and more conspicuously American Gangster.
With the nominations in less than 5 days now, I want to let you know what updates you can expect in the coming days. I will be returning to my Oscar Morning article that will prep you for the announcements, which will include a section you can highlight and print out to follow along yourself. And I'll be posting my final predictions. I've been working on them off and on since the PGA announced, but I'll be posting a finalized version sometime soon highlighting my predictions for the films the Academy will nominate. There's also the standard Previews update to look forward to, but youw would have gotten that anyway.
-Wesley Lovell (January 17, 2008)
British Academy Awards Nominations
The British Academy of Film & Television Arts (the British Academy Awards), have announced their nominees for films released in 2007. Their list is quite interesting featuring films that some are considering dead for Oscar consideration. This might be proof that support is wider than expected, but it's hard to know without seeing the Oscar nods in comparison.
-Wesley Lovell (January 16, 2008)
Foreign Film Finalists
Today, the Academy has provided us with a look at the nine semi-finalists for the Academy Award nomination for Best Foreign Language Film. Absent are three critically acclaimed films: 4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days, The Orphanage and Persepolis. Their absence calls into question the Academy's selection process as the tendency of the category is towards more vanilla fare and away from controversial subjects. A revamp may never occur, but at least we know the nine films from which we can choose. I've updated my predictions in the Foreign Film category at the Oscar Hopefuls link above to include only the nine films and my predictions from those nine.
-Wesley Lovell (January 15, 2008)
Producers Guild of American Nominations
The PGA announced its selections for the best produced films of the year. Atonement, an early favorite, has fallen farther and farther behind in terms of Oscar consideration. If it picks up a nod next Tuesday, it will indeed be a surprise. The Diving Bell and the Butterfly is quietly emerging as a strong contender while There Will Be Blood continues its late-release dominance of consideration, having now picked up several major guild nominations.
-Wesley Lovell (January 14, 2008)
Golden Globe Winners
The Golden Globe Winners have been announced and thanks to NBC for dragging it out, I found out too late that CNN gave all the winners and announced them faster. The Precursors page under the 80th Oscars link above is updated as is the Tallies page. All winners are there.
Atonement pulled out a squeaker of a win having picked up only one other award: Original Score. Julian Schnabel picked up a somewhat surprising win for Best Director and Amy Ryan, the Supporting Actress with the most precursors, went down to the ever-present Cate Blanchett who may have benefited from two nominations this year.
-Wesley Lovell (January 13, 2008)
Nominations Poll Closure and 2007 Year in Preview
The Oscar ballots will be due by 5:00 pm today, so any influence other group votes will have is neglible (even those for the guild nominations announced in the past couple of days could be ill-influential. What we're really looking at in the guilds is trends that may have been present in the voting community for the Academy and we've seen a few.
However, today's big news is that my first ever Year in Preview, detailing the Ten Best and Worst Trailers and Posters of 2007 has been posted. You can find it in the Previews section.
-Wesley Lovell (January 12, 2008)
Art Directors Guild, American Cinema Editors & Oscar Hopefuls Update
The Art Directors Guild followed the announcement of the American Cinema Editors Eddie award nominatoins with nominations of their own in Period, Fantasy and Contemporary Art Direction.
I've also posted my latest Oscar nominations predictions. The Hopefuls link above will take you there. I only expect one or two more updates before the nominations are announced.
-Wesley Lovell (January 11, 2008)
American Cinema Editors...for now
As I expect the Art Directors will announce later when I'm not available to update the site, I'm going to go ahead and post the American Cinema Editors nominations. The usual suspects show up here, but the lack of love for former frontrunner Atonement is clear.
-Wesley Lovell (January 11, 2008)
Writers Guild and Cinema Audio Society
Two more of the Biggies posted today. The Writers Guild of America and the Cinema Audio Society (Sound Mixing) announced their nominations. Both are decent predictors with the Audio Society edging out the WGA for the title of More Accurate. Tomorrow, we finish off the week with nomination announcements from the American Cinema Editors and the Art Directors guild. Also be on the look out for my latest predictions...while I'm still waiting on the PGA to announce Monday to put a more cemented list together, this will be nearly the final one I do before Oscar Nominations morning January 22.
I'll also be putting together my Oscar Morning primer that will help you follow the nominations announcement and guess what's big, what's not big and what's going to surprise. It shou.d be out some time next week.
-Wesley Lovell (January 10, 2008)
USC Scripter & Online Film Critics Society
The Online Film Critics Society has seemed to have tried to avoid standing out from the pack, choosing the Precursor Tally leaders in every category but Cinematography and Documentary. The USC Scripter winners will be announced today as well and we'll hopefully see a shake-up because it's rather boring to see the same winners turned out with every new precursor award.
Cormac McCarthy and the Coen Brothers triumphed over two dead competitors and several others to win the USC Scripter prize for Best Adapted Screenplay.
-Wesley Lovell (January 9, 2008)
Directors Guild of America Nominees & Online Film Critics Society Winners News
The Directors Guild of America announced their nominees today amid news that the Golden Globe ceremony scheduled for Sunday was going to be reduced to a winners-announcement press conference. The Online Film Critics Society will announce their winners tomorrow, Wednesday. The close of the nominations balloting process is coming up this Saturday the 12th. Groups announcing in the next three or four days may not have an impact on the nominations, but may give signs as to what to expect.
Also, note that the countdown clock at the top shows us that less than two weeks remains until Oscar nominations are announced. When that occurs, the clock will reset to Oscar Night and we'll then be in the final stretch to the 80th Academy Awards.
-Wesley Lovell (January 8, 2008)
Visual Effects Society Nominees & Broadcast Critics Winners
Each have been updated in the 80th Oscars section. Stay tuned tomorrow for the Directors Guild of America's nominations and the announcement of the Online Film Critics Society Award winners.
-Wesley Lovell (January 7, 2008)
Makeup Finalists, ASC Nominees and Broadcast Critics Awards
Today's a busy day and I still haven't even seen the Visual Effects Society nominations. The Broadcast Critics have not yet announced, but they will be presented live on VH-1, so as soon as I know the winners, I'll post them to the Discussion Board. Then, I'll update them here as soon as I can.
The Academy has announced the last of its Finalists prior to the nominations announcements. The Makeup Branch has announced the 7 films from which the final selections will be for the Makeup nominations.
The American Society of Cinematographers has also announced its nominations for 2007. Check the 80th Oscars page for all the updates.
-Wesley Lovell (January 7, 2008)
Tributes Fix, New Previews and the National Society of Film Critics Announces
Several announcements today. The Tributes section links have been fixed, so you should be able to access it normally. We have new previews up in the Previews section and the National Society of Film Critics, the last of the old guard, make their picks for the best of 2007.
-Wesley Lovell (January 6, 2008)
Tributes Section Opens, Visual Effects Finalists Announced
With the arrival of 2008, Peter has put together a list of luminaries that have departed this life in 2007. These lead off a new area of my site for tributes to those who pass away.
The Academy has also announced the seven films that will compete for the Best Visual Effects nominations. Three films will be selected (at maximum). The films selected are now included in my Hopefuls page accessible from the 80th Oscars tab above. These are the only updates I will make until the PGA and DGA announce this coming week. There were also several announcements this week of some special awards which have been updated on the Winners and Nominees page.
-Wesley Lovell (January 5, 2008)
USC Scripter
The USC Scripter award nomiantions have been announced. Their Best Adapted Screenplay selections aren't always the best precursors, but it's interesting to see what's popular. Check out those nominations at the 80th Oscars box above and also the weekend box office results, which have finally been updated.
-Wesley Lovell (January 3, 2008)
Online Film Critics Society
The OFCS has selected its nominees for 2007. The broad-spectrum list includes Oscar contenders in many categories and a first-time six-nominee Best Supporting Actress field. Not the best predictors, but it's always interesting to see the dichotemy between print and online journalists as well as how the American vs. International divide will play out (the OFCS features a large number of non-North American critics, who don't always get to see the films American critics do.
-Wesley Lovell (January 2, 2008)
New Updates
Along with today's Previews update, the St. Louis Film Critics Nomations and Awards have been posted in the 80th Oscars section above.
-Wesley Lovell (December 29, 2007)
Oscar Hopefuls Update
Now that I've had time to ruminate on the Screen Actors Guild nominations, it's time for an updated set of predictions. The Hopefuls page has been updated to reflect this. I have also put the first winner on the Nominations and Winners page with information I already possess.
-Wesley Lovell (December 24, 2007)
Utah Critics and Regular Update
I have posted the winners of the Utah Critics in the 80th Oscars section above. I've also updated the latest trailers and posters in the Previews section, also listed above. A new set of Oscar Hopefuls should emerge before the end of the year, so keep an eye out for that.
-Wesley Lovell (December 22, 2007)
Screen Actors Guild Nominations
The nominations for the Screen Actors Guild Awards have been announced. Click on the 80th Oscars page above to get the full data.
-Wesley Lovell (December 20, 2007)
Screen Actors Guild Info; Phoenix and Toronto Film Critics
Tomorrow morning, the Screen Actors Guild will announce its nominees for this year's awards. The presentation is supposed to be carried live on TNT around 8:30 Eastern, 5:30 Pacific. That's according to SAG's own site, so I'm assuming it's correct. As usual, I will post the nominees immediately after they are announced. They'll go up first in the forums, but I'll update the Precursors section of the 80th Oscars page linked immediately above with the data.
More critics awards arrive with more love for No Country for Old Men, which picked up prizes from both Phoenix and Toronto Film Critics. Those prizes have already been updated at the previously-mentioned link.
-Wesley Lovell (December 19, 2007)
San Diego and Detroit Film Critics
More Critics groups announce their winners in stealth. This time, we have the Detroit Film Critics Society, which seems to be a new group this year, and the San Diego Film Critics whose choices are far from the unusual they used to be.
-Wesley Lovell (December 19, 2007)
Southeastern and Dallas-Ft. Worth Film Critics
As I expected when I wrote those ill-fated words this morning, my respite is not to be. Two more critics groups announced their winners. Check out the 80th Oscars section above for the latest update.
-Wesley Lovell (December 17, 2007)
Satellite Awards, American Film Institute
Last night, the Satellite Awards (created by the International Press Academy) were announced. The winners have been added to the Precursors page in the 80th Oscars section above. The Tallies page has also been updated. Also announced yesterday were the ten best American-financed films of 2007 produced by the American Film Institute. While Atonement did not qualify, Sweeney Todd did, but unlike last year's musical Oscar failure Dreamgirls, Tim Burton's film didn't make the list, which puts into serious doubt its potential wide appeal to the Academy.
Thursday's announcement of the Screen Actors Guild nominations will be the last such scheduled prize until the beginning of the year when the Online Film Critics Society weighs in. So, you'll have a break (as will I).
-Wesley Lovell (December 17, 2007)
Post-Golden Globe Nominations Hopefuls
Now that the Golden Globe Nods have been announced, it's time for another update to my predictions, which won't get another revamp until after the SAG nominations. Check them out at the Hopefuls link above.
-Wesley Lovell (December 16, 2007)
Golden Globe Nominations
The Golden Globe Award nominations have been announced and they are now posted in full at the 80th Oscars link above. Also announced today were the nominees for the London Film Critics awards.
The Chicago Critics also jumped their own gun, announcing their winners a day before they were originally scheduled to do so.
-Wesley Lovell (December 13, 2007)
Original Song Contenders
The official list of eligible songs for the 80th Oscars is fifty-nine entries long. All of them have been added to my Hopefuls section along with my first predictions in the category.
-Wesley Lovell (December 12, 2007)
Precursor: Broadcast Critics
For those wondering where the nominations disappeared to, they have been put in their proper place under the 80th Oscars section above. Feel free to navigate there to check them out. Please note some corrections have been made since the posting this morning, so there are some changes.
Hopefully this will mean a respite until Thursday. Since they announce live, tune in around 8a eastern, 5p pacific to see what the Hollywood Foreign Press Association believes is deserving of its Golden Globe Awards nomiantions.
-Wesley Lovell (December 11, 2007)
Precursor: San Francisco
The always-stealthy San Francisco Critics data only appeared late last night, so it has been updated. Today's the Broadcast Critics nomiantions. To get the latest posting on this data, check out the forums.
-Wesley Lovell (December 11, 2007)
Precursor: New York and Chicago
The week continues to be busy with the New York Film Critics Circle announcing their winners and the Chicago Film Critics announcing their nominees. Tomorrow, we know for sure that the Broadcast Critics will announce their nominations. Chicago will announce its winners on Friday while the Golden Globes weigh in with Nominations Thursday morning. It's a busy week and I'm going to hold off on commentary until after it's over.
-Wesley Lovell (December 10, 2007)
Precursor: Los Angeles, Boston, Washington D.C. and New York Online
What a busy day. Critics in four areas announced their winners. There are too many to really go over in detail, but suffice it to say that There Will Be Blood is back in the hunt and Julie Christie's lead is no longer solid.
-Wesley Lovell (December 10, 2007)
First December Predictions
The National Board of Review forced me to take a new outlook on the Oscar race. Although I'm still trying to catch up on the late 2007 films, it's become quite obvious what films are locks for nominations and which ones have fallen by the wayside. Click the above Hopefuls link to find my latest predictions...guaranteed to make someone upset. Keep in mind, I picked a few "surprise" nominees that most people aren't choosing just to be different and to voice my concern over the chances of some other films, but I'll let you be the judge for one man's Dreamgirls is another man's Schindler's List.
-Wesley Lovell (December 9, 2007)
Precursor: National Board of Review Analysis
Sadly, the NBR Precursor and Stat pages aren't going to be updated this morning. They are up, but they are not formatted correctly and the 2006 awards are missing. However, I will give you my analysis. No Country for Old Men has cemented itself as a Best Picture nominee. The Coens can't do wrong according to most critics and I think this is just another example of forced recognition. By default proclamation it's a winner, thus why it has been elevated. I don't know if anyone else saw the same preview I did, but the entire thing looked atrocious when I first saw the trailer early this year. I think most of the buzz has been manufactured and, like with all things, people may have liked it in spite of its flaws for a desire not to be wrong.
In the last five years, the NBR has chosen 4 to 5 out of the final Best Picture Oscar nominees. Last year they were down to four after two years at five. Before that, they had three years running where they only picked two of the five...and that's out of ten slots they can fill. This year, they have 11 spaces for chances. I still think it will be only 4 of 5, but we could be surprised. Their winner has received an Oscar nomination eight out of the last 10 contests. I don't see any reason for that to change this year. However, the winner eight times has failed to win Best Picture, so I'm pretty sure No Country's not THE contender for Best Picture, though it could still win.
In the acting categories, they have a spotty record. For Winner-to-Oscar nominees 8 of 10 Actors, 10 of 10 Actress (with the distinction of only 1990 and 1981 being miss years in the last 25), Supporting Actor is 9 for 10 (with nearly the same kind of track record of Actress, with three in the last 20 failing to carry over), and 2 of the last five for Supporting Actress and four of the last 10 with 11 of the last 20 carrying over (it's a 50-50 shot). So, from these statistics, Casey Affleck and Julie Christie are nearly guaranteed a nomination with George Clooney being quite likely and Amy Ryan the only one with any potential pitfalls.
As for the winner-to-winner ratio, it's a 50% split in 10 years for Actors, 3 of 10 for Actresses, 1 in 10 for Supporting Actor, and Supporting Actress is at 0 in 10 with only 3 of the last 20 years. So, if all four of these winners get an Oscar nomination, Clooney's the only one with a real shot based on these numbers with Amy Ryan so unlikely to win it's scary.
In the director field, the NBR is hit-or-miss. In 5 years, the winner here received an Oscar nomination twice. That ratio decreases to 3 in 10 but increases again to 11 in 20 years. They aren't good at picking this category in any sense of the word. 0 in the last 10 years have won Oscars and only 4 in the last 20 hvae matched.
The screenplays are generally hard to go but it seems Juno may be a lock (though Lars and the Real Girl is highly unlikely in the case of this tie), while their history (of only three years, mind you) would suggest No Country might not get nominated. That's doubtful, so it's likely the NBR's records will be increasing this year.
The other categories are difficult to pin down since the NBR doesn't have the same selection criteria as the Academy and thus creating a true comparison is nigh impossible. As for Animated Feature, this is their first year, but I can see their choice of Ratatouille being another winner for Pixar.
-Wesley Lovell (December 6, 2007)
Precursor: National Board of Review
The National Board of Review has announced. Click on the 80th link and take a look at the Precursors page and the Tallies page where the first winners are now taking shape. I will have an analysis in the morning after I finish putting together the NBR Precursors and Stats pages.
-Wesley Lovell (December 5, 2007)
Precursor: Annie Awards
The Annie Award nominations have been released and the top contenders for Best Animated Feature at the Oscars, Persepolis, Ratatouille and The Simpsons Movie. The big surprise was that Surf's Up earned quite a few more nominations than expected. Beowulf, once thought to be a potential contender has stumbled with only one nomination and only in the Production Design category. Bee Movie did somewhat well picking up a nod for Best Animated Feature alongside Simpsons, Persepolis, Ratatouille and Surf's Up.
-Wesley Lovell (December 3, 2007)
Precursor: The Satellite Awards
Coming out of nowhere, the Satellite Awards, presented by the Hollywood Foreign Press off-shoot the International Press Academy. Their awards are designed to have a more critical eye than the more populist Golden Globes. Their prediction capabilities are terrible, though they have a better shot with 12 Films competing for the top award and 12 actors and actresses in their categories. Several films did not screen for the critics before the deadline, thus why films like Sweeney Todd and Charlie Wilson's War are absent. Just click on the 80th Oscars link above to find the full list.
-Wesley Lovell (November 30, 2007)
The First Precursor: The Spirit Awards
Once called the Independent Spirit Awards, the Spirit Awards recognize American productions made on budgets less than $20 M. This eliminates a number of small budget films that either made too much money or were produced outside the U.S. However, looking at the list gives us some interesting indicators as to what performances could be seen at the Oscars. While seldom more than 1 or 2 productions make it from each category, the preponderance of weakened big studio productions could be a boon for the Spirit Awards. Just visit the 80th Oscars Link above to find the full list of nominees.
-Wesley Lovell (November 27, 2007)
Documentary Feature Finalists
The Documentary committee, in their always infinite "wisdom", have announced only 15 contenders for the Best Documentary Feature Oscar. You can find those now updated on the Hopefuls page linked above. I've also made my new predictions considering those contenders.
-Wesley Lovell (November 19, 2007)
New Hopefuls Update
After the critics panned Lions for Lambs and the talk of Away from Her persists, I've made some adjustments to my Oscar Hopefuls. We have several other changes, including my first predictions for the Documentary Short category. There Will Be Blood may also be a big threat and Atonement has not lost much luster.
-Wesley Lovell (November 11, 2007)
Animated Feature Finalists
Don't get all excited that the above link to Oscar Hopefuls has been updated. My new predictions are actually still being worked on. This update is only to list the 12 official finalists for the Animated Feature category at the Oscars. The predictions may have adjusted accordingly.
Normally, I have to remove dozens of films and add three or four. This year, I only had three changes. Foodfight! and Happily N'Ever After are out. Tekkonkinkreet, a film about which I've heard nothing, is in.
Keep an eye out, though. Sometime in the next week, I will be posting my November predictions for this year's Oscars.
-Wesley Lovell (November 10, 2007)
Halloween Retrospective
The Halloween update is here. Check out the reviews section to see which film series I selected to review for my special Halloween update.
All other pages are a little behind on the update because of a long weekend that resulted in little work getting done. Because these issues may keep coming up, some updates will be pushed to Sunday or Tuesday at the latest.
-Wesley Lovell (October 31, 2007)
Halloween Retrospective
In preparation for Halloween, Peter launches a week of fun with his look back at his favorite horror films from cinema history. I'll be chiming in later in the week, and Saturday, stay tuned for a Reviews update with my favorite horror film series ever.
The link errors have been corrected, so you can now send me emails through the Contact page.
-Wesley Lovell (October 23, 2007)
Link Errors
It has come to my attention that the Home->Contact menu item has been linking to an invalid page. I have updated this data and you should now be able to use that page to contact. If all else fails, there is a contact link at the bottom of the page that I have verified works perfectly. The process of updating can take several hours but should be completd by mid-morning.
-Wesley Lovell (October 22, 2007)
Foreign Language Film Finalists
About once every week, we'll probably start seeing the "contenders" for all of the categories that have early deadlines. The Foreign Language Film submissions are usually first, but were pre-empted by the Documentary Short finalists. However, the selections have been announced and a record 63 countries have submitted work. Check out the 80th Oscars page linked above and click on the Foreign Language Film page to see a full list of the cntenders. My Hopefuls list will be updated soon.
-Wesley Lovell (October 18, 2007)
Documentary Short Finalists
The first finalists for the 80th Academy Awards have been announced by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. To find the nominees, check out the Oscar Hopefuls page and find the official eight contenders for the Documentary Short Subject award.
For now, I have not made predictions in this category. The reason is that I've only found information on five of the eight contenders and without knowing more I cannot make an educated guess. If you have details about If It Happens, Portraits of a Lady or La Corona (The Crown), please let me know.
-Wesley Lovell (October 11, 2007)