Winner Predictions Records

Best Years: 2003 (83.3%) 1997 (82.6%) 2005 (75.0%)	Worst Years: 1990 (36.4%) 1994 (39.1%) 1991 (43.5%)
Best Categories: Actor, Actress, Original Screenplay (88.9%) Animated Feature, Sound Editing (83.3%) Visual Effects (76.5%)	Worst Categories: Documentary Short Subject (29.4%) Animated Short Film (35.3%) Original Song (38.9%)

Winner Predictions Overall Statistics

Overall	249	414	60.1%
The Big Six	72	108	66.7%
Writing	27	36	75%
Music	21	40	52.5%
Technical	91	143	63.6%
Documentaries	13	34	38.2%
Short Films	13	34	38.2%

Winner Prediction Statistics by Year

2001	12	24	50.0%		1995	17	23	73.9%		1989	11	18	61.1%
2002	13	24	54.2%		1996	12	23	52.2%		1990	8	22	36.4%
2003	20	24	83.3%		1997	19	23	82.6%		1991	10	23	43.5%
2004	16	24	66.7%		1998	14	23	60.9%		1992	11	23	47.8%
2005	18	24	75.0%		1999	16	23	69.6%		1993	17	23	73.9%
2006	13	24	54.2%		2000	13	23	56.5%		1994	9	23	39.1%

Winner Predictions Statistics by Category

Picture	9	18	50%		Director	11	18	61.1%
Actor	16	18	88.9%		Actress	16	18	88.9%
Supporting Actor	10	18	55.6%		Supporting Actress	10	18	55.6%
Original Screenplay	16	18	88.9%		Adapted Screenplay	11	18	61.1%
Foreign Film	9	17	52.9%		Animated Film	5	6	83.3%
Original Score	9	14	64.3%		Original Song	7	18	38.9%
Dramatic Score	2	4	50%		Comedy/Musical Score	3	4	75%
Editing	10	18	55.6%		Cinematography	12	18	66.7%
Art Direction	8	18	44.4%		Costume Design	9	18	50%
Makeup	13	18	72.2%		Sound	11	18	61.1%
Sound Effects	15	18	83.3%		Visual Effects	13	17	76.5%
Documentary Feature	8	17	47.1%		Documentary Short Subject	5	17	29.4%
Animated Short Film	6	17	35.3%		Live-Action Short Film	7	17	41.2%

Statistics by Category/by Year

		The Big Six				Writing				Music				Technical				Docs				Short Films
1989		5	6	83.3%		2	2	100.0%		1	2	50.0%		3	8	37.5%		0	0	0.0%		0	0	0.0%
1990		3	6	50.0%		1	2	50.0%		1	2	50.0%		2	7	28.6%		1	2	50.0%		0	2	0.0%
1991		3	6	50.0%		1	2	50.0%		2	2	100.0%		3	8	37.5%		1	2	50.0%		0	2	0.0%
1992		2	6	33.3%		2	2	100.0%		1	2	50.0%		4	8	50.0%		0	2	0.0%		1	2	50.0%
1993		5	6	83.3%		2	2	100.0%		1	2	50.0%		7	8	87.5%		1	2	50.0%		1	2	50.0%
1994		2	6	33.3%		1	2	50.0%		1	2	50.0%		4	8	50.0%		0	2	0.0%		1	2	50.0%
1995		4	6	66.7%		2	2	100.0%		2	3	66.7%		5	8	62.5%		2	2	100.0%		1	2	50.0%
1996		4	6	66.7%		1	2	50.0%		2	3	66.7%		4	8	50.0%		1	2	50.0%		1	2	50.0%
1997		5	6	83.3%		2	2	100.0%		3	3	100.0%		8	8	100.0%		0	2	0.0%		1	2	50.0%
1998		3	6	50.0%		1	2	50.0%		1	3	33.3%		7	8	87.5%		1	2	50.0%		0	2	0.0%
1999		6	6	100.0%		2	2	100.0%		0	2	0.0%		5	8	62.5%		0	2	0.0%		2	2	100.0%
2000		4	6	66.7%		2	2	100.0%		1	2	50.0%		4	8	50.0%		0	2	0.0%		1	2	50.0%
2001		5	6	83.3%		1	2	50.0%		1	2	50.0%		3	8	37.5%		0	2	0.0%		1	2	50.0%
2002		2	6	33.3%		0	2	0.0%		0	2	0.0%		7	8	87.5%		2	2	100.0%		0	2	0.0%
2003		6	6	100.0%		1	2	50.0%		2	2	100.0%		7	8	87.5%		1	2	50.0%		1	2	50.0%
2004		4	6	66.7%		2	2	100.0%		1	2	50.0%		7	8	87.5%		1	2	50.0%		0	2	0.0%
2005		5	6	83.3%		2	2	100.0%		1	2	50.0%		6	8	75.0%		1	2	50.0%		1	2	50.0%
2006		5	6	83.3%		2	2	100.0%		1	2	50.0%		6	8	75%		1	2	50.0%		1	2	50%

Winner Predictions

Below are the predictions I made in each category and each year. Those in blue match the eventual Oscar winner.

		Picture		Actor		Actress
1989		Driving Miss Daisy		Daniel Day-Lewis - My Left Foot		Jessica Tandy - Driving Miss Daisy
1990		The Godfather, Part III		Jeremy Irons - Reversal of Fortune		Kathy Bates - Misery
1991		Beauty and the Beast		Anthony Hopkins - The Silence of the Lambs		Jodie Foster - The Silence of the Lambs
1992		The Crying Game		Al Pacino - Scent of a Woman		Emma Thompson - Howards End
1993		Schindler's List		Tom Hanks - Philadelphia		Holly Hunter - The Piano
1994		Pulp Fiction		Paul Newman - Nobody's Fool		Jodie Foster - Nell
1995		Babe		Nicolas Cage - Leaving Las Vegas		Susan Sarandon - Dead Man Walking
1996		The English Patient		Geoffrey Rush - Shine		Frances McDormand - Fargo
1997		Titanic		Jack Nicholson - As Good As It Gets		Helen Hunt - As Good As It Gets
1998		Saving Private Ryan		Ian McKellen - Gods and Monsters		Gwyneth Paltrow - Shakespeare in Love
1999		American Beauty		Kevin Spacey - American Beauty		Hilary Swank - Boys Don't Cry
2000		Gladiator		Russell Crowe - Gladiator		Julia Roberts - Erin Brockovich
2001		A Beautiful Mind		Denzel Washington - Training Day		Halle Berry - Monster's Ball
2002		Chicago		Daniel Day-Lewis - Gangs of New York		Renee Zellweger - Chicago
2003		The Lord of the Rings		Sean Penn - Mystic River		Charlize Theron - Monster
2004		The Aviator		Jamie Foxx - Ray		Hilary Swank - Million Dollar Baby
2005		Brokeback Mountain		Philip Seymour Hoffman - Capote		Reese Witherspoon - Walk the Line
2006		Babel		Forest Whitaker - The Last King of Scotland		Helen Mirren - The Queen

		Supporting Actor		Supporting Actress		Director
1989		Denzel Washington - Glory		Julia Roberts - Steel Magnolias		Oliver Stone - Born on the Fourth of July
1990		Bruce Davison - Longtime Companion		Whoopi Goldberg - Ghost		Francis Ford Coppola - The Godfather, Part III
1991		Jack Palance - City Slickers		Jessica Tandy - Fried Green Tomatoes		Oliver Stone - JFK
1992		Jaye Davidson - The Crying Game		Joan Plowright - Enchanted April		Neil Jordan - The Crying Game
1993		Tommy Lee Jones - The Fugitive		Winona Ryder - The Age of Innocence		Steven Spielberg - Schindler's List
1994		Martin Landau - Ed Wood		Dianne Wiest - Bullets over Broadway		Quentin Tarantino - Pulp Fiction
1995		Ed Harris - Apollo 13		Mira Sorvino - Mighty Aphrodite		Mel Gibson - Braveheart
1996		Edward Norton - Primal Fear		Lauren Bacall - The Mirror Has Two Faces		Anthony Minghella - The English Patient
1997		Robin Williams - Good Will Hunting		Gloria Stuart - Titanic		James Cameron - Titanic
1998		James Coburn - Affliction		Judi Dench - Shakespeare in Love		Steven Spielberg - Saving Private Ryan
1999		Michael Caine - The Cider House Rules		Angelina Jolie - Girl, Interrupted		Sam Mendes - American Beauty
2000		Benicio Del Toro - Traffic		Kate Hudson - Almost Famous		Ang Lee - Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon
2001		Ian McKellen - The Lord of the Rings		Jennifer Connelly - A Beautiful Mind		Ron Howard - A Beautiful Mind
2002		Christopher Walken - Catch Me If You Can		Catherine Zeta-Jones - Chicago		Rob Marshall - Chicago
2003		Tim Robbins - Mystic River		Renee Zellweger - Cold Mountain		Peter Jackson - The Lord of the Rings
2004		Morgan Freeman - Million Dollar Baby		Cate Blanchett - The Aviator		Martin Scorsese - The Aviator
2005		George Clooney - Syriana		Rachel Weisz - The Constant Gardener		Ang Lee - Brokeback Mountain
2006		Eddie Murphy - Dreamgirls		Jennifer Hudson - Dreamgirls		Martin Scorsese - The Departed

		Original Screenplay		Adapted Screenplay		Foreign Film
1989		Dead Poets Society		Driving Miss Daisy		Made no choices
1990		Ghost		Awakenings		Cyrano de Bergerac - France
1991		Thelma & Louise		Fried Green Tomatoes		Raise the Red Lantern - Hong Kong
1992		The Crying Game		Howards End		Indochine - France
1993		The Piano		Schindler's List		Farewell My Concubine - Hong Kong
1994		Pulp Fiction		The Shawshank Redemption		Strawberry and Chocolate - Cuba
1995		The Usual Suspects		Sense and Sensibility		Antonia's Line - The Netherlands
1996		Fargo		The English Patient		Ridicule - France
1997		Good Will Hunting		L.A. Confidential		Character - The Netherlands
1998		Shakespeare in Love		Gods and Monsters		Life Is Beautiful - Italy
1999		American Beauty		The Cider House Rules		All About My Mother - Spain
2000		Almost Famous		Traffic		Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon
2001		Memento		A Beautiful Mind		Amelie
2002		Far From Heaven		The Hours		Nowhere in Africa
2003		Lost in Translation		Mystic River		The Barbarian Invasions
2004		Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind		Sideways		The Chorus
2005		Crash		Brokeback Mountain		Tsotsi
2006		Little Miss Sunshine		The Departed		Pan's Labyrinth

		Original Song		Original Score		Dramatic Score		Comedy/Musical Score
1989		Kiss the Girl - The Little Mermaid		The Little Mermaid
1990		Sooner or Later - Dick Tracy		Ghost
1991		Beauty and the Beast - Beauty and the Beast		Beauty and the Beast
1992		A Whole New World - Aladdin		Aladdin
1993		Again - Poetic Justice		Schindler's List
1994		Circle of Life - The Lion King		The Lion King
1995		Colors of the Wind - Pocahontas				Apollo 13		Pocahontas
1996		You Must Love Me - Evita				The English Patient		The Hunchback of Notre Dame
1997		My Heart Will Go On - Titanic				Titanic		The Full Monty
1998		When You Believe - The Prince of Egypt				Life Is Beautiful		Shakespeare in Love
1999		You'll Be in My Heart - Tarzan		The Red Violin
2000		Things Have Changed - Wonder Boys		Gladiator
2001		If I Didn't Have You - Monsters Inc.		The Lord of the Rings
2002		I Move On - Chicago		Catch Me If You Can
2003		Into the West - The Lord of the Rings		The Lord of the Rings
2004		Al Otro Lado del Rio - The Motorcycle Diaries		Finding Neverland
2005		Travelin' Thru - Transamerica		Brokeback Mountain
2006		Listen - Dreamgirls		Pan's Labyrinth

		Animated Film		Film Editing		Cinematography
1989				Driving Miss Daisy		The Abyss
1990				Ghost		Dick Tracy
1991				JFK		JFK
1992				The Crying Game		A River Runs Through It
1993				Schindler's List		Schindler's List
1994				Hoop Dreams		Legends of the Fall
1995				Apollo 13		Braveheart
1996				The English Patient		The English Patient
1997				Titanic		Titanic
1998				Saving Private Ryan		Saving Private Ryan
1999				The Matrix		American Beauty
2000				Gladiator		Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon
2001		Shrek		Moulin Rouge		The Man Who Wasn't There
2002		Spirited Away		Chicago		Road to Perdition
2003		Finding Nemo		The Lord of the Rings		Seabiscuit
2004		The Incredibles		The Aviator		The Aviator
2005		Wallace & Gromit		Crash		Brokeback Mountain
2006		Happy Feet		United 93		Children of Men

		Art Direction		Costume Design		Makeup
1989		Driving Miss Daisy		Driving Miss Daisy		Driving Miss Daisy
1990		Dick Tracy		Dick Tracy		Dick Tracy
1991		Hook		The Addams Family		Star Trek VI: The Undiscovered Country
1992		Bram Stoker's Dracula		Bram Stoker's Dracula		Bram Stoker's Dracula
1993		Schindler's List		Orlando		Mrs. Doubtfire
1994		Interview with the Vampire		The Adventures of Priscilla, Queen of the Desert		Mary Shelley's Frankenstein
1995		Babe		Restoration		Roommates
1996		Evita		Hamlet		The Nutty Professor
1997		Titanic		Titanic		Men in Black
1998		Shakespeare in Love		Shakespeare in Love		Elizabeth
1999		Sleepy Hollow		Topsy-Turvy		Topsy-Turvy
2000		Gladiator		Quills		How the Grinch Stole Christmas
2001		The Lord of the Rings		The Lord of the Rings		The Lord of the Rings
2002		Gangs of New York		Chicago		Frida
2003		The Lord of the Rings		The Lord of the Rings		The Lord of the Rings
2004		Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events		The Aviator		Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events
2005		Memoirs of a Geisha		Memoirs of a Geisha		The Chronicles of Narnia
2006		Pan's Labyrinth		Dreamgirls		Pan's Labyrinth

		Sound Mixing / Sound		Sound Editing / Sound Effects Editing		Visual Effects
1989		Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade		Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade		The Abyss
1990		Dick Tracy		Flatliners		No Award Given
1991		Beauty and the Beast		Star Trek VI: The Undiscovered Country		Terminator 2: Judgement Day
1992		Under Siege		Under Siege		Death Becomes Her
1993		Jurassic Park		Jurassic Park		Jurassic Park
1994		Speed		Speed		The Mask
1995		Apollo 13		Braveheart		Apollo 13
1996		Evita		The Ghost and the Darkness		Twister
1997		Titanic		Titanic		Titanic
1998		Saving Private Ryan		Saving Private Ryan		What Dreams May Come
1999		The Matrix		The Matrix		The Matrix
2000		Gladiator		U-571		Hollow Man
2001		The Lord of the Rings		Pearl Harbor		The Lord of the Rings
2002		Chicago		The Lord of the Rings		The Lord of the Rings
2003		The Lord of the Rings		Master and Commander		The Lord of the Rings
2004		Ray		The Incredibles		Spider-Man 2
2005		Walk the Line		King Kong		King Kong
2006		Dreamgirls		Letters from Iwo Jima		Pirates of the Caribbean 2

		Documentary Feature		Documentary Short Subject
1989		Made no choices		Made no choices
1990		American Dream		Chimps: So Like Us
1991		The Restless Conscience: Resistance to Hitler within Germany, 1933-1945		Deadly Deception: General Electric, Nuclear Weapons and Our Environment
1992		Changing Our Minds: The Story of Dr. Evelyn Hooker		When Abortion Was Illegal: Untold Stories
1993		The War Room		Defending Our Lives
1994		Freedom on My Mind		School of the Americas Assassins
1995		Anne Frank Remembered		One Survivor Remembers
1996		When We Were Kings		Cosmic Voyage
1997		4 Little Girls		Alaska: Spirit of the Wild
1998		The Last Days		The Personals
1999		One Day in September		King Gimp
2000		Long Night's Journey Into Day		The Man on Lincoln's Nose
2001		Children Underground		Sing!
2002		Bolwing for Columbine		Twin Towers
2003		Capturing the Friedmans		Chernobyl Heart
2004		Born Into Brothels		Autism Is a World
2005		March of the Penguins		God Sleeps in Rwanda
2006		An Inconvenient Truth		Recycled Life

		Animated Short Film		Live-Action Short Film
1989		Made no choices		Made no choices
1990		Grasshoppers		Dear Rosie
1991		Strings		Last Breeze of Summer
1992		Mona Lisa Descending a Staircase		Swan Song
1993		The Wrong Trousers		Down on the Waterfront
1994		Frank Kafka's It's a Wonderful Life		The Janitor
1995		Runaway Brain		Lieberman in Love
1996		Wat's Pig		Dear Diary
1997		La Vieille Dame et Les Pigeons		Visas and Virtue
1998		Bunny		Election Night
1999		The Old Man and the Sea		My Mother Dreams...
2000		The Periwig-Maker		Quiero Ser (I Want to Be...)
2001		For the Birds		A Man Thing
2002		The Chubbchubbs!		Inja (Dog)
2003		Harvie Krumpet		Two Soldiers
2004		Birthday Boy		Little Terrorist
2005		The Moon and the Son		Our Time Is Up
2006		The Little Matchgirl		West Bank Story

Nomination Prediction Records

Best Years: 2004 (74.23%) 2002 (74.19%) 2001 (72.5%)	Worst Years: 1996 (62.9%) 2006 (64.1%) 2005 (64.9%)
Best Categories: Supporting Actress (85.0%) Actress (81.7%) Dramatic Score (80%)	Worst Categories: Documentary Short (37.5%) Foreign Film (46.7%) Sound Editing (52.6%)

Nomination Predictions Overall Statistics

Overall	771	1121	68.8%
The Big Six	285	360	79.2%
Writing	89	120	74.2%
Music	82	135	60.7%
Technical	267	410	65.1%

Nomination Predictions Statistics by Year

2004	72	97	74.23%		2000	60	88	68.2%		1996	56	89	62.9%
2005	63	97	64.9%		2001	66	91	72.5%		1997	59	89	66.3%
2006	66	103	64.1%		2002	69	93	74.19%		1998	64	89	71.9%
2007	71	103	68.9%		2003	62	92	67.4%		1999	63	90	70.0%

Nomination Predictions Statistics by Category

Picture	46	60	76.7%		Director	45	60	75.0%
Actor	47	60	78.3%		Actress	49	60	81.7%
Supporting Actor	47	60	78.3%		Supporting Actress	51	60	85.0%
Original Screenplay	42	60	70.0%		Adapted Screenplay	47	60	78.3%
Foreign Film	28	60	46.7%		Animated Film	17	23	73.9%
Original Score	25	45	55.6%		Original Song	36	60	60.0%
Dramatic Score	12	15	80.0%		Comedy/Musical Score	9	15	60.0%
Editing	46	60	76.7%		Cinematography	46	60	76.7%
Art Direction	40	60	66.7%		Costume Design	36	60	60.0%
Makeup	20	36	55.6%		Sound Mixing	39	60	65.0%
Sound Editing	20	38	52.6%		Visual Effects	20	36	55.6%
Documentary Feature	12	20	60.0%		Documentary Short	3	8	37.5%

Nomination Predictions Statistics by Category/by Year

		The Big Six				Writing				Music				Technical
1996		21	30	70.0%		4	10	40.0%		10	15	66.7%		22	34	64.7%
1997		25	30	83.3%		6	10	60.0%		11	15	73.3%		20	34	58.8%
1998		24	30	80.0%		9	10	90.0%		10	15	66.7%		23	34	67.6%
1999		21	30	70.0%		8	10	80.0%		8	10	80.0%		24	35	68.6%
2000		26	30	86.7%		8	10	80.0%		5	10	50.0%		19	33	57.6%
2001		23	30	76.7%		8	10	80.0%		7	10	70.0%		24	33	72.7%
2002		24	30	76.7%		8	10	80.0%		8	10	80.0%		22	33	66.7%
2003		23	30	80.0%		7	10	70.0%		4	10	40.0%		24	34	70.6%
2004		27	30	90.0%		9	10	90.0%		5	10	50.0%		24	34	70.6%
2005		24	30	80.0%		8	10	80.0%		5	10	50.0%		19	34	55.9%
2006		25	30	83.3%		6	10	60.0%		4	10	40.0%		19	36	52.8%
2007		22	30	73.3%		8	10	80.0%		5	10	50.0%		27	36	75.0%

Nomination Predictions

You can find my individual nomination predictions in the Oscars section under each year's pages. Below is the yearly breakdown for each category of my predictions successes.

		Picture				Actor				Actress				Supporting Actor				Supporting Actress				Director				Original Screenplay				Adapted Screenplay
1996		4	5	80%		4	5	80%		3	5	60%		3	5	60%		4	5	80%		3	5	60%		1	5	20%		3	5	60%
1997		4	5	80%		5	5	100%		4	5	80%		4	5	80%		5	5	100%		3	5	60%		3	5	60%		3	5	60%
1998		3	5	60%		4	5	80%		4	5	80%		4	5	80%		4	5	80%		5	5	100%		4	5	80%		5	5	100%
1999		3	5	60%		4	5	80%		4	5	80%		4	5	80%		3	5	60%		3	5	60%		4	5	80%		4	5	80%
2000		4	5	80%		3	5	60%		5	5	100%		5	5	100%		4	5	80%		5	5	100%		4	5	80%		4	5	80%
2001		4	5	80%		3	5	60%		4	5	80%		4	5	80%		4	5	80%		4	5	80%		3	5	60%		5	5	100%
2002		3	5	60%		4	5