In such a contentious year where there isn't a hands-down frontrunner, categories that one wouldn't normally look to for predicting insight have become more crucial to films hoping to take home Oscar's Top prize. Today, we'll take a look at the second tier categories. These categories rarely impact the final prize but can give great insight as the show progresses as to where the night will go.

The least impacting categories, Animated Feature, Foreign Language Film and Documentary Feature have no impact this year, or in any year, on the final prize. Let's take a look at these first before we head into the most impacting categories of screenwriting and music.

Documentary Feature

The documentary categories have always been a place for human-interest stories to prevail. In recent years, however, the bent has switched to controversial political films. This is both good and bad news for this year's contenders.

While none of the films are incredibly controversial, "Enron: The Smartest Guy in the Room" is the closest to carrying that designation, namely because of its coverage of the scandal that brought down one of the most corrupt corporations in U.S. history. Though the trial is still going strong, the corruption is far from prevalent in current news repots, weakening its potential. In addition, there are two other films that pose stiff and likely more powerful competition.

"Murderball" is the story of quadriplegics who play full-contact rugby in souped-up wheelchairs. It's not your typical "let's feel sorry for the subjects" type documentary but it does feature plenty of obstacles that the subjects have to overcome. This makes it the kind of film that Oscar voters can recognize and feel good about themselves.

The film to beat, however, is "March of the Penguins". Documenting the mating season of the emperor penguin in Antarctica, Academy voters won't be able to resist the human-like trials of these black-and-white marvels. It's been a long time since a wildlife documentary has won this category, but look for this to take Oscar glory.

The other two contenders really don't seem to have much hope. "Darwin's Nightmare" is a film about how a predator introduced into a non-native environment can affect both the ecosystem and those who live off of that ecosystem. It's certainly got the chops to compete with the other three films but ultimately it's likely to fail against the more feel-good "Penguins".

"Street Fight", which covers a mayoral race in New Jersey, is the absolute least likely to win. Sure it's about politics, which the Academy loves but it really isn't a tour-de-force film that begs to be observed. This film is perhaps too tightly connected to politics and not subtle enough to send a message to the world community.

The category seems to be a competition between the most honored of these documentaries, "Murderball", "Enron" and "Penguins". With the Werner Herzog documentary "Grizzly Man" out of the competition, "Penguins" is the most recognized film and the second most successful documentary in history. This makes it the perfect film for the Academy to recognize this year (even after the members who vote in this category are forced to watch all five features).

Animated Feature

Unless the Academy decides to honor someone new, this category is all but decided. "Wallace & Gromit" has won more than a dozen awards for Best Animated Feature and there's no reason to expect it won't win here.

Creator Nick Park has received three out of four Academy Awards for his work with sTop -motion animation. Two of those awards were for short films starring the title characters Wallace and Gromit. The Academy obviously loves him and his work and the film is another example of the innovation of animation.

The only film to possibly stand in "Gromit's" way is Tim Burton's "The Corpse Bride". Since the award was created after his landmark work with "Nightmare Before Christmas", the Academy may feel like they are honor-bound to recognize this clearly inferior work.

Hayao Miyazaki has already received an Oscar for his work on "Spirited Away" which means they won't be likely to recognize him again for "Howl's Moving Castle". This gives "Wallace" the absolute edge in this non-computer-generated field of competitors.

Foreign Language Film

The one category that has more surprises than any other is the Foreign Language Film category where the perceived favorite can be upset by sentimentality. This year's contenders are "Tsotsi" from South Africa about a hood decides to take responsibility for the child of one of his dead victims, France's "Joyeux Noel" about soldiers on both side of World War I who put down their arms and share camaraderie during the Christmas holiday, the controversial "Paradise Now" about suicide bombers from Palestine, the German "Sophie Scholl-The Final Days" concerning two resistance fighters in Nazi Germany, and Italy's "La Bestia Nel Cuore" about a young woman who begins having nightmares about her past.

"Paradise Now" would have been the film of choice for the Academy because of the difficult and political subject matter but some Jewish Academy members may be reticent to recognize a film that discusses any validity to the violence perpetrated by the Palestinians against the Israelis.

"Joyeux Noel" seems like the feel-good kind of film the Academy loves to recognize but doesn't have the modern relevance that a film like "Tsotsi" has.

"La Bestia Nel Cuore" isn't remotely the kind of film the Oscars like to recognize, especially since all of the members who vote in the category must see all the films. All four of the other films feature more relevant topics and thus seem much more likely contenders.

"Sophie Scholl-The Final Days" could very well spoil "Tsotsi's" hope. Since it's about those who fight against the Nazi's who exterminated Jews in World War II, the Academy may fall head over heels for the film. They have a penchant for Holocaust dramas but since this film doesn't focus as much on the Jewish plight as it does resistance fighters, it may not be enough for that vociferous block of Academy members.

Original Screenplay

This is one of the major fortune telling categories for the Best Picture prize. "Crash" leads the contenders in the rather tight category of Original Screenplay. Also up are fellow Best Pic nominee "Goo Night, and Good Luck.", the anti-oil industry "Syriana", Woody Allen's return to masterful filmmaking "Match Point" and the coming of age in the face of divorce comedy "The Squid and the Whale".

Had "Crash" not emerged as such a favorite in the past few months, we would have handed this category to "Good Night" but add "Squid" and "Syriana" as competitors and you have a tough race. Allen's nomination is his recognition, so no one will need to worry about "Match Point" winning.

"Squid and the Whale" picked up a lot of critics' awards before being nominated, which, in past years, may have signaled an impending victory. Not so this year. "Syriana" will appeal to the liberal bloc of the Academy but they'll be split with honoring George Clooney's "Good Night" which is "Crash's" biggest competition.

If it's the Best Picture contender everyone claims it to be, "Crash" should take this prize easily, especially after its win at the Writers Guild of America awards. If any film other than "Crash" wins here, it will signal the end of the line for "Crash's" chance at winning the Top prize. If "Good Night" is the winner, we may have a tighter race between "Brokeback Mountain" and "Good Night".

Adapted Screenplay

To say Adapted Screenplay is an important category for "Brokeback Mountain" to win is an understatement. A failure to win this category would signal a likely defeat in the Best Picture category. However, with the competition and precursor recognition, there is little chance of this award not going to the unconventional romance.

Fellow Best Pic nominees "Munich" and "Capote" hold the best chance of overtaking the frontrunner. "Capote" would have to win this award to compete as a Best Picture finalist. The same can be said of "Munich". "Capote" has a number of awards for screenwriting in the bag but "Brokeback" has far more under its belt.

"Munich", however, co-written by "Angels in America" scribe Tony Kushner is one of Steven Spielberg's tightest scripts. Because it's like anything else Spielberg has ever put to the screen, it could be an Oscar to Kushner, especially since he couldn't be recognized for "Angels" since it was a television miniseries.

"The Constant Gardener" and "A History of Violence" round out the category but their overall lack of support at the Oscars point to their relative obscurity in winning this award.

"Brokeback Mountain" however, should have no problems winning this prize. It's an incredibly well adapted screenplay by one of history's most celebrated writers of the western genre. By the fact that he was able to craft such a poignant love story between two classic cowboy archetypes means the Academy can't help but credit Larry McMurtry for his effort alongside his co-writer Diana Ossana.

Original Song

For only the second time in the history of the Academy Awards, the Best Original Song category features only three nominees. Each one has its supporters and any one could truly win but the most likely winner is the singer-songwriter who has a previous Oscar loss on record.

"It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp" from "Hustle & Flow" is this year's "Blame Canada". It's a controversial choice. People seem to love the film as they did "South Park", but its chances of winning over the more stoic Academy members are unlikely.

The contest is really between "Crash" and "Transamerica". If "Crash" wins this prize for the ballad "In the Deep", it will give rise to anticipation of a "Crash" victory at the end of the night. However, if "Travelin' Thru" wins the final race will not be impacted.

Dolly Parton, who wrote the song "Travelin' Thru", is the only previous nominee, earning her first nod for the long-memorable "9 to 5" from the film of the same name. Many in the Academy may feel that the more forgettable "Fame" shouldn't have won over the likes of "9 to 5" or "On the Road Again" and give Parton the prize. Plus, it would be a neat historical fact for her to win 25 years after her first nomination.

Original Score

While "Crash" and "Brokeback Mountain" only compete in three categories together, this is another category where an outcome could spell victory or defeat at the end of the night.

"Brokeback" would have been considered the favorite for this award had John Williams not contributed two strong scores to the race. "Munich" doesn't hold much promise of a victory but "Memoirs of a Geisha" is a competitor all the way. The Golden Globes tend to predict the film that won't win this award, so this is bad new for "Brokeback" making its lead tenuous at best. If "Geisha" wins, it may be a sign of bad fortunes for "Brokeback"

The other competitors are "Pride & Prejudice" and "The Constant Gardener". Neither film looks like much of a competitor, so the race won't end with either film in the Top spot unless some major upsets are coming up later in the evening.

Portents could surface throughout the night with some of these races posing a quandary for prognosticators. When we look at the Top six awards tomorrow, we'll have a better understanding of where the competition for Best Picture will turn around if at all.

-Wesley Lovell (March 3, 2006)