As the Academy Awards approach, every fan and armchair critic will be trying to predict the winners of the most coveted statuette in the world. To help demystify the races, over the next few days, I will be taking a look at all of the feature-length races.
The first group of categories to tackle is the Tech Awards. These are categories that don't typically carry prestige with average filmgoers (except for the Visual Effects category). Many of these eight categories don't affect the Best Picture results, but they deserve no less attention.
Cinematography
The cinematography award has historically gone to huge, outdoor epics. Only two nominees this year take place in large part in the wilderness. "Brokeback Mountain" and "The New World" take part largely outdoors and are joined by the black-and-white "Good Night, and Good Luck", the hugely atmospheric "Batman Begins" and the glorious lighting feats "Memoirs of a Geisha".
This is probably one of the tightest races this year. Four films seem to be in contention while the fifth, "Batman", could benefit from a vote split. "Memoirs" won the American Society of Cinematographers award. This is small consolation considering in the last ten years, only four films have translated that award into a win for Best Cinematography. Only one of those times was in the last four years.
Oscar has typically gone for the biggest film in the line up, which could mean great things for "The New World". However, Terrence Malick didn't win with the far more bankable John Toll for his last film "The Thin Red Line". And with the languid pace and the last-minute editing Malick did on the film, it's not likely that either enough voters saw the film or even liked it well enough to give it the prize.
That leaves "Brokeback" and "Good Night". Both films are Best Picture nominees. This has helped all but four of the last twenty winners in this category. "Good Night" has its own style as a hindrance. "Schindler's List" is the only black-and-white film to win this category since the category was separated into black-and-white and color components in 1966.
"Brokeback" has all of the classic qualities of cinematography winners. It takes place in large part outdoors, which helped non-Best Picture nominees "Legends of the Fall" and "A River Runs Through It" walk away with the trophy. On Top of being the Top contender for the Top race, "Brokeback" would seem insurmountable.
Then again, you still have "Memoirs" which poses a serious threat to "Brokeback" wins in two categories, this and Best Original Score. "Memoirs" has strong support considering it was nominated for six Oscars, more than any other film that wasn't also Best Picture nominated. If there's a film to knock "Brokeback" from its perch, this is the category to watch. If "Brokeback" loses this award, its grip on Best Picture becomes tenuous.
Makeup
One of only three feature-length categories that are consistently filled with three nominees, the Best Makeup award is one of the most creative categories, if not one of the least visible. This year, the nominations include "The Chronicles of Narnia", "Star Wars: Episode III" and "Cinderella Man".
Normally, this category goes to the film with the most makeup, not necessarily the best (otherwise "Sin City", despite its digital touch-ups, would be a nominee and the hands-down winner). Two films are laden with makeup effects. "Chronicles" and "Star Wars" seem to have a stranglehold on the competition leaving "Cinderella Man" as the bridesmaid.
There is precedent for a film with predominantly prosthetic work to take this award. "Frida" won for giving Salma Hayek a unibrow, but its competition was "The Time Machine", a critically maligned film. "Topsy Turvy" and "Elizabeth" took the trophy for mostly hairstyling work and "Braveheart" and "Ed Wood" took the prize for overwhelming amounts of facial makeup.
However, "Cinderella" is nominated for making Russell Crowe look like he was sufficiently beaten. Not even the beloved "Raging Bull" or last year's champ "Million Dollar Baby" managed nominations better yet Oscars. This makes "Cinderella" just as unlikely.
"Chronicles" and "Star Wars" have made nearly the same amount of money at the box office but no "Star Wars" film has ever been nominated in this category. This could be an award to the history of the franchise, or, like "Lord of the Rings", this could be an award to "Chronicles" for creating a believable world that had never been seen before, unlike the "Episode III".
Editing
No category has been more linked to Best Picture winners outside of the writing and directing categories. Historically, a film must be nominated in this category to win the Top prize. This year, however, the most likely winner of the Top prize isn't even nominated, which makes this race less impacting unless "Brokeback's" primary competition, "Crash", happens to win, which is seemingly like an increasingly likely conclusion.
Along with "Crash" the nominees include fellow Best Picture nominee "Munich", boxing drama "Cinderella Man", musical biopic "Walk the Line" and the anti-pharmaceutical "The Constant Gardener". Anyone could say this is an eclectic blend of films but it's not unusual for this category. Last year, we had another boxing drama, another musical biopic, a thriller, a fantasy film and a historical epic.
The historical epic ("The Aviator") won last year which gives "Munich" a boost. However, "The Aviator" was "Million Dollar Baby's" primary competition last year, and "Munich" doesn't seem to be much in the race. "Walk the Line" isn't the type of film to win here and Sound is its best opportunity for a prize this year.
That leaves a good race between "Cinderella", "Crash" and "Gardener". "Cinderella" is the weakest link. "Rocky" and "Raging Bull" aside, boxing dramas get nominations here but don't typically win. "Crash" blends dozens of stories together into a seamless mélange of melodrama. This helped "Traffic" win and is likely going to result in a victory for editor Hughes Winborne. On Top of that, "Crash" took home the American Cinema Editors award, which has consistently resulted in one of its winners taking the award for Cinematography.
The spoiler here is "The Constant Gardener". Many will consider the film shafted from a Best Picture or Best Director nomination. Fernando Meirelles' last film "City of God" was also a nominee, which proves the Academy likes his work but "Crash" may be too strong to be dethroned. However, if there's a race to watch to see if "Crash" has the momentum to steal Best Picture from "Brokeback", a loss here would be deadly.
Art Direction
Period films highlight the Art Direction/Set Decoration category. "Memoirs of a Geisha" is set in World War II era Japan, "Good Night, and Good Luck" set during the blacklisting period of United States history, "King Kong" takes place in 1920s New York City, "Pride & Prejudice" occurs in late-18th Century England, and "Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire" set in the fantasy world of modern witchcraft and wizardry.
A strong case can be made for any one of these films to win. "Pride" and "Kong" continue a long tradition of costume dramas in the race, "Memoirs" features the beautiful sculpted landscapes of Kyoto, "Good Night" crafts a beautiful world of black-and-white, and "Harry Potter" is the only film nominated to create a completely original environment for its characters.
Tradition shows that the winner of this category will likely also win Best Costume Design. In the last 25 contests, only nine films split the categories. This only works in the favor of "Memoirs" and "Pride". "Memoirs" is the kind of film that is rarely seen in this derby and would be more likely to win than the been-there-done-that "Pride". However, there could be a good case for a split this year.
"King Kong" was surprisingly omitted from the Costume Design race but in its recreation of the 1920s, it's a good bet the film will be able to unseat "Memoirs". However, there's another potential spoiler in "Goblet of Fire". "Goblet" managed to win the British Academy's equivalent of the art direction award. This is good news for the fourth installment but in the end, this will likely be a repeat of previous years' habit of hand-in-hand awards.
Costume Design
Speaking of Costume Design, this category holds the best bet for Oscar glory for "Memoirs of a Geisha". Its fellow competitors are "Pride & Prejudice", "Mrs. Henderson Presents", "Charlie and the Chocolate Factory" and "Walk the Line". The competition is significantly weaker here than in many other categories.
"Walk the Line" is relatively modern in its design. There's very little that's flashy or over the Top , which are hallmarks of this category. "Charlie" is better known for its luscious sets than its costuming and thus becomes the only other guaranteed also-ran.
"Mrs. Henderson" and "Prejudice" are both period costume films and will compete for the same votes. This is great news for "Memoirs" as it has a style of costuming that hasn't been recognized by the Academy in a very long time. On Top of that, the Geisha in "Memoirs" wear a different kimono each day making the frequency and complexity of changes integral to the film.
Visual Effects
This contest is certainly interesting, if not a foregone conclusion. "King Kong" uses the same visual effects techniques that carried the "Lord of the Rings" trilogy to an undefeated record in this category. WETA has emerged as the film industry's best visual effects production house and "Kong" will likely capitalize on that success.
Not to be outdone, WETA features another film in the final list, one which may appeal to Oscar voters' taste for excess. "The Chronicles of Narnia" uses thousands of visual effects shots to create the fantasy world of J.R.R. Tolkien's pal C.S. Lewis. "Chronicles" is the weakest of the nominees and may succumb to the skillful blend of visual effects characters with real human characters in Peter Jackson's "Kong".
"War of the Worlds" remains the only film to pose a threat to "Kong's" dominance. It's the only Industrial Light and Magic entry this year and could reap the benefit of strong support for Spielberg in a year where "Worlds" and "Munich" have done so well in the nominations". However, in the end, the victor will be the one with the best and biggest effects and that trophy will go to "Kong."
Sound Editing
This category rarely results in a revelatory selection and never points to higher awards for its winners. When aligned, the Sound Editing category can be part of the major tech triumvirate along with Sound Mixing and Visual Effects. A number of films have won all three but this isn't likely to be one of those years.
Two of nominees are also contenders in the other two categories but it's unlikely that either will take the Sound Mixing award, thus making it difficult to gauge which of the three films will win. "King Kong" appears the most likely to triumph but "War of the Worlds" could be poised for an upset after its support with both of the sound guilds (Motion Picture Sound Editors and Cinema Audio Society). "Memoirs of a Geisha" seems more like a runner-up than a real contender but if "Worlds" and "Kong" split enough votes, "Geisha" could be crowned Empress.
Sound Mixing
This category typically goes to the biggest effects-driven film, a music-driven film or a popular Best Picture winner. Since there are no Best Picture nominees in Sound Mixing this year, it looks like it'll be a battle between effects and music.
Last year, biopic "Ray" took this trophy and it appears that "Walk the Line" is the favorite this year. "Memoirs of a Geisha" doesn't stand much of a chance since it's neither notably visual effects heavy nor not at all a musical. That leaves the big films "King Kong", "Chronicles of Narnia" and "War of the Worlds".
If "Worlds" or Kong" were prepared for a hat trick, I'd say they'd be bigger contenders. "Chronicles" doesn't seem like to win any other category, so the Academy could feel obliged to honor it here, but the same thing holds true for "Walk the Line" which isn't a significant contender anywhere other than Best Actress.
Considering that last year's two blockbusters ("Spider-Man 2" and "Incredibles") failed to fend off "Ray", it doesn't appear that three such films would be able to hold off "Walk the Line".
The tech categories are far less poised to point to an end-of-night victor than in previous years, so we must look to the second tier categories feature the music and screenwriting categories. We'll take a look at those and the Foreign Film and Documentary Feature categories tomorrow.
-Wesley Lovell (March 2, 2006)