Nomination Predictions | Winner Predictions | Winner Analysis

Golden Globe Winners Analysis

Drama Picture:

(1) Saving Private Ryan

Reason:
Ah well. Can't win 'em all, I guess, but this is no shock whatsoever.

Comedy/Musical Picture:

(1) Shakespeare in Love

Reason:
What a shocker? I'm kidding...

Drama Actor:

(3) Jim Carrey - The Truman Show

Reason:
I am in awe and total surprise here. I don't know what to say. I thought it would be McKellen.

Drama Actress:

(1) Cate Blanchett - Elizabeth

Reason:
Now a complete lock for the Oscar nomination and possibly even a win.

Comedy/Musical Actor:

(3) Michael Caine - Little Voice

Reason:
Ok...where the hell are we going to nominate him at the Oscars? It looks like Lead.

Comedy/Musical Actress:

(2) Gwyneth Paltrow - Shakespeare in Love

Reason:
No major surprise here.

Supporting Actor:

(4) Ed Harris - Truman

Reason:
This was a bit of a surprise. I can only see another Oscar nomination in Harris' future.

Supporting Actress:

(4) Lynn Redgrave - Gods and Monsters

Reason:
This could be the year of shockers. Redgrave, too, will be in Oscar's nomination spotlight.

Director:

(1) Steven Spielberg - SPR

Reason:
Not a surprise.

Screenplay:

(1) Shakespeare in Love

Reason:
Who didn't see this one coming?

Original Score:

(2) Truman Show

Reason:
Amen HFPA! Not a terrible surprise, but a welcome one.

Original Song:

(6) "The Prayer" - Quest for Camelot

Reason:
Head scratching time...apparently they REALLY like Celine Dion. This just muddies up the Oscar race.

Foreign Film:

(1) Central Station

Reason:
Not a surprise.

TV Drama Series:

(3) The Practice

Reason:
Not a major surprise. They probably felt guilty for not giving it to them last year while the Emmys chose to honor it.

TV Comedy/Musical Series:

(1) Ally McBeal

Reason:
Not a surprise whatsoever.

TV Drama Actor:

(2) Dylan McDermott - The Practice

Reason:
No surprise, really. It was one of the two who would win. A worthy winner at that.

TV Drama Actress:

(1) Keri Russell - Felicity

Reason:
The new talent is often rewarded and this is a prime example of it.

TV Comedy/Musical Actor:

(1) Michael J. Fox - Spin City

Reason:
Fewer surprises from the Television arena early in the movie awards show.

TV Comedy/Musical Actress:

(1) Jenna Elfman - Dharma & Greg

Reason:
No surprises here.

Movie/Miniseries:

(1) From the Earth to the Moon

Reason:
It's a shame Merlin couldn't have won. Any film in Earth's path is easily stomped out.

Movie/Miniseries Actor:

(1) Stanley Tucci - Winchell

Reason:
Another one right. Now, if only the rest of the evening will be this good.

Movie/Miniseries Actress:

(1) Angelina Jolie - Gia

Reason:
Not a surprise.

Supporting Actor:

TIE:
(3) Don Cheadle - The Rat Pack
(5) Gregory Peck - Moby Dick

Reason:
Ties abound tonight. I wonder if this will be the only category? Celebrating the new and the ancient. The Globes manage to suck up to a lot of people.

Supporting Actress:

TIE:
(5) Faye Dunaway - Gia
(1) Camryn Manheim - The Practice

Reason:
Half surprising, half not. The Emmy got this one, but Dunaway came out of nowhere to tie..

Golden Globe Winner Predictions

Drama Picture:

(4) Elizabeth
(2) Gods and Monsters
(5) The Horse Whisperer
(1) Saving Private Ryan
(3) The Truman Show

Reason:
Saving Private Ryan while third to Elizabeth and The Truman Show in quality is still the front-runner. Gods and Monsters has two critics awards so far. SPR has 4.

Comedy/Musical Picture:

(2) Bulworth
(6) The Mask of Zorro
(5) Patch Adams
(1) Shakespeare in Love
(4) Still Crazy
(3) There's Something About Mary

Reason:
Shakespeare in Love came out of nowhere to become the critics darling and with no Pleasantville to contend with, SIL is the film to beat.

Drama Actor:

(3) Jim Carrey - The Truman Show
(5) Stephen Fry - Wilde
(4) Tom Hanks - SPR
(1) Ian McKellen - Gods
(2) Nick Nolte - Affliction

Reason:
McKellan has almost swept the critics awards (6 total). Nick Nolte is one of the few actors who's beaten him.

Drama Actress:

(1) Cate Blanchett - Elizabeth
(2) Fernanda Montenegro - Central Station
(4) Susan Sarandon - Stepmom
(5) Meryl Streep - One True Thing
(3) Emily Watson - Hilary and Jackie

Reason:
Blanchett gives an English-language performance, something Montenegro has going against her...not to mention Blanchett's 4 critics awards to Montenegro's 2.

Comedy/Musical Actor:

(5) Antonio Banderas - The Mask of Zorro
(2) Warren Beatty - Bulworth
(3) Michael Caine - Little Voice
(1) John Travolta - Primary Colors
(4) Robin Williams - Patch Adams

Reason:
Travolta gave the best charicature of a president since Hopkins in Nixon. This is a tight race. It could go any way between Travolta, Beatty and Caine.

Comedy/Musical Actress:

(4) Cameron Diaz - There's Something About Mary
(1) Jane Horrocks - Little Voice
(2) Gwyneth Paltrow - Shakespeare in Love
(3) Christina Ricci - The Opposite of Sex
(5) Meg Ryan - You've Got Mail

Reason:
Horrocks easily has the most showy role. Paltrow could be swept in by the picture and Ricci is a critics-award winner. Then again, so is Diaz, but we won't hold that against them.

Supporting Actor:

(3) Robert Duvall - A Civil Action
(4) Ed Harris - Truman
(2) Bill Murray - Rushmore
(6) Geoffrey Rush - Shakespeare in Love
(5) Donald Sutherland - Without Limits
(1) Billy Bob Thornton - A Simple Plan

Reason:
Thornton has won a significant number of pre-Oscar awards (5 in all), but so has Bill Murray (4 total). Duvall and Harris also have won awards (1 and 2 respectively).

Supporting Actress:

(1) Kathy Bates - Primary Colors
(2) Brenda Blethyn - Little Voice
(3) Judi Dench - Shakespeare in Love
(4) Lynn Redgrave - Gods and Monsters
(5) Sharon Stone - The Mighty

Reason:
Without Joan Allen's competition, Bates is almost the hands-down winner. Surprises abound at the GG and this could be another opportunity for Stone to weasel votes out of the HFPA.

Director:

(4) Shekhar Kapur - Elizabeth
(2) John Madden - Shakespeare in Love
(5) Robert Redford - The Horse Whisperer
(1) Steven Spielberg - SPR
(3) Peter Weir - Truman

Reason:
With Best Picture go the spoils of Director (Spielberg's 4 precursor awards help greatly).

Screenplay:

(3) Bulworth
(4) Happiness
(1) Shakespeare in Love
(5) Saving Private Ryan
(2) The Truman Show

Reason:
SIL has won numerous critics awards for best screenplay (5 to be exact). Truman Show is the next most original. Bulworth also has an award. Happiness is the little film that no one saw and SPR has more flaws in its screenplay than the actual execution...unfortunately, a sweep could be inevitable.

Original Score:

(4) A Bug's Life
(3) Mulan
(1) The Prince of Egypt
(5) SPR
(2) Truman Show

Reason:
The Prince of Egypt is the big epic musical of the year. Truman was unique and the other two animated films are all easily superior to SPR, thought SPR could sweep the awards which would be a travesty.

Original Song:

(5) "The Flame Still Burns" - Still Crazy
(4) "The Mighty" - The Mighty
(6) "The Prayer" - Quest for Camelot
(3) "Reflection" - Mulan
(2) "Uninvited" - City of Angels
(1) "When You Believe" - The Prince of Egypt

Reason:
"When You Believe," while the worst song of the bunch, has Mariah Carey and Whitney Houston propelling it.

Foreign Film:

(2) The Celebration
(1) Central Station
(3) Men With Guns
(5) The Polish Bride
(4) Tango

Reason:
Central Station has what it takes, but so does Celebration. Look for a battle royale here.

TV Drama Series:

(5) ER
(1) Felicity
(4) Law & Order
(3) The Practice
(2) The X-Files

Reason:
Felicity is the breakthrough show. The GG honor the underdogs. They started with X-Files and Party of Five for Fox. Now they'll probably move on to the WB.

TV Comedy/Musical Series:

(1) Ally McBeal
(2) Dharma & Greg
(3) Frasier
(4) Just Shoot Me
(5) Spin City

Reason:
Ally won last year and should have no hard time winning again this year. Even with two new competitors in Dharma and Shoot.

TV Drama Actor:

(4) David Duchovny - The X-Files
(3) Anthony Edwards - ER
(5) Lance Henrickson - Millennium
(2) Dylan McDermott - The Practice
(1) Jimmy Smits - NYPD Blue

Reason:
He left NYPD Blue this year and fans and critics hate to see him go. McDermott was ignored by Emmy this year. Perhaps this will be his reward.

TV Drama Actress:

(2) Gillian Anderson - The X-Files
(5) Kim Delaney - NYPD Blue
(4) Roma Downey - Touched by an Angel
(3) Julianna Margulies - ER
(1) Keri Russell - Felicity

Reason:
The Top new Drama series yields the Top new dramatic actress.

TV Comedy/Musical Actor:

(1) Michael J. Fox - Spin City
(5) Thomas Gibson - Dharma & Greg
(3) Kelsey Grammer - Frasier
(2) John Lithgow - 3rd Rock from the Sun
(4) George Segal - Just Shoot Me

Reason:
Fox may just knock out the battling heavyweights of this category. Lithgow and Grammer already have numerous accolades.

TV Comedy/Musical Actress:

(4) Christina Applegate - Jesse
(1) Jenna Elfman - Dharma & Greg
(2) Calista Flockhart - Ally McBeal
(3) Laura San Giacomo - Just Shoot Me
(5) Sarah Jessica Parker - Sex and the City

Reason:
Elfman is the critics darling. Even more so than Flockhart. San Giacomo leads a superb ensemble and Applegate is a pleasant surprise. Where did Parker come from anyway?

Movie/Miniseries:

(5) The Baby Dance
(3) Gia
(1) From the Earth to the Moon
(2) Merlin
(4) The Temptations

Reason:
From the Earth to the Moon, a docudrama, should easily defeat its terrific competitor, Merlin.

Movie/Miniseries Actor:

(4) Peter Fonda - The Tempest
(3) Sam Neill - Merlin
(6) Bill Paxton - A Bright Shining Lie
(5) Christopher Reeve - Rear Window
(2) Patrick Stewart - Moby Dick
(1) Stanley Tucci - Winchell

Reason:
Tucci plays the only real-life character in the bunch. At least real enough for voters to remember him and his character.

Movie/Miniseries Actress:

(4) Stockard Channing - The Baby Dance
(3) Laura Dern - The Baby Dance
(1) Angelina Jolie - Gia
(5) Ann-Margret - Life of the Party: The Pamela Harriman Story
(2) Miranda Richardson - Merlin

Reason:
Jolie has won raves for her role. Richardson was terrific and the other two films I don't recogniize.

Supporting Actor:

(3) Don Cheadle - The Rat Pack
(4) Joe Mantegna - The Rat Pack
(5) Gregory Peck - Moby Dick
(2) David Spade - Just Shoot Me
(1) Noah Wyle - ER

Reason:
Wyle has been long ignored for his terrific performance on ER. He shouldn't have a problem beating out his fellow nominees.

Supporting Actress:

(2) Helena Bonham Carter - Merlin
(5) Faye Dunaway - Gia
(4) Jane Krakowski - Ally McBeal
(3) Wendie Malick - Just Shoot Me
(1) Camryn Manheim - The Practice
(6) Susan Sullivan - Dharma & Greg

Reason:
Manheim won the Emmy, she should also pick up the Globe. Watch out for Carter who lost the Oscar and Malick who plays such a different role than on Dream On.

Golden Globe Nomination Predictions

Drama Picture:

Beloved
Central Station
A Civil Action
Elizabeth
The General
Gods and Monsters
Hilary and Jackie
Life Is Beautiful
Saving Private Ryan
A Simple Plan
The Thin Red Line

Reason:
Right now, the foreign contenders don't have much of a chance (Central Station and Life Is Beautiful). The GG have traditionally nominated solely English-Language films, forcing Foreigns into the Foreign Film category. LIB isn't eligible for the GG Foreign race, so it has a chance in Drama Picture. General is most likely their "where'd that come from" nominee ala The Bozer last year. SPR and TRL are almost locked and Simple Plan seems like a sure thing. Elizabeth and General will benefit greatly from nominations, but could easily be replaced by LIB or Central Station.

Comedy/Musical Picture:

Antz
Babe: Pig in the City
A Bug's Life
Bulworth
Happiness
Little Voice
Mulan
Pleasantville
The Opposite of Sex
Primary Colors
The Prince of Egypt
Shakespeare in Love
There's Something About Mary
The Truman Show
Waking Ned Devine

Reason:
Bug's Life may be seen as the best in computer animation and POE might be the best in regular animation. Pleasantville and Truman Show, if considered Comedies, will both be nominated so they don't have to decide just yet which is best and Shakespeare in Love is the surprise hit among critics.

Drama Actor:

Roberto Benigni - LIB
Brendan Gleeson - General
Tom Hanks - SPR
Woody Harrelson - The Hi-Lo Country
John Hurt - Love and Death on Long Island
Ian McKellen - Gods
Nick Nolte - Affliction
Sean Penn - Hurlyburly
John Travolta - A Civil Action

Reason:
Hanks and McKellan are almost locks for the category. Travolta is well-liked and will likely carry a nom for Civil. Penn needs a nomination here to even be a contender for the Oscar. Gleeson also has a chance, but it will all depend on whether they think Harrelson, Nolte, Benigni or Hurt are better.

Drama Actress:

Cate Blanchett - Elizabeth
Helena Bonham Carter - The Theory of Flight
Fernanda Montenegro - Central Station
Vanessa Redgrave - Mrs. Dalloway
Susan Sarandon - Stepmom
Sissy Spacek - Affliction
Meryl Streep - Dancing at Lughnasa
Kristin Scott Thomas - The Horse Whisperer
Emily Watson - Hilary and Jackie
Oprah Winfrey - Beloved
Alfre Woodard - Down in the Delta

Reason:
Blanchett is a lock. Montenegro, depending on how the GG feel about a foreign-language nominee, has an equally impressive shot. Redgrave, Winfrey and Woodard all have the best chances. Bonham Carter will need a nom here to be in contention for the Oscars. The rest are also hoping for nominations.

Comedy/Musical Actor:

Ian Bannen - Waking Ned Devine
Warren Beatty - Bulworth
Jim Carrey - The Truman Show
Joseph Fiennes - Shakespeare in Love
John Hannah - Sliding Doors
Sean P. Hayes - Billy's Hollywood Screen Kiss
Tobey Maguire - Pleasantville
Eddie Murphy - Dr. Dolittle
Adam Sandler - The Wedding Singer
Ben Stiller - There's Something About Mary
John Travolta - Primary Colors

Reason:
The heavy hitters are out this year. Truman, if considered comedy, has a lock on this category for Jim Carrey. Travolta and Beatty are almost assured Bannen and Fiennes may follow their films' popularity into the race.

Comedy/Musical Actress:

Jane Adams - Happiness
Drew Barrymore - Home Fries
Cameron Diaz - There's Something About Mary
Jane Horrocks - Little Voice
Holly Hunter - Living Out Loud
Gwyneth Paltrow - Shakespeare in Love
Gwyneth Paltrow - Sliding Doors
Christina Ricci - The Opposite of Sex
Emma Thompson - Primary Colors
Reese Witherspoon - Pleasantville

Reason:
Comedy is so hard to pick when it comes to the Golden Globes. One never knows who's going to be up for what film. Do you remember Jamie Lee Curtis winning for the action film True Lies?

Supporting Actor:

Adrien Brody - TRL
Jim Caviezel - TRL
Jeremy Davies - SPR
Ed Harris - Truman
William H. Macy - A Civil Action
Steve Martin - The Spanish Prisoner
Bill Murray - Rushmore
Billy Bob Thornton - A Simple Plan

Reason:
None are locks at this point. One each from the war movies is possible. Harris also seems like a good contender. Murray is iffy (depending on whether they actually viewed the film). Thornton also seems to have a shot. Don't count anyone out at this point.

Supporting Actress:

Joan Allen - Pleasantville
Kathy Bates - Primary Colors
Brenda Blethyn - Little Voice
Kathy Burke - Elizabeth
Judi Dench - Shakespeare in Love
Kimberly Elise - Beloved
Rachel Griffiths - Hilary and Jackie
Lisa Kudrow - The Opposite of Sex
Queen Latifah - Living Out Loud
Camryn Manheim - Happiness
Thandie Newton - Beloved
Julia Roberts - Stepmom
Meryl Streep - One True Thing

Reason:
Bates and Allen seem like sure things. Blethyn and Griffiths are good bets. Elise may trump Newton, but it could be the other way around.

Director:

Roberto Benigni - LIB
John Boorman - General
Jonathan Demme - Beloved
Mark Herman - Little Voice
Kirk Jones - Waking Ned Devine
Shekhar Kapur - Elizabeth
Terrence Malick - TRL
Sam Raimi - A Simple Plan
Gary Ross - Pleasantville
Steven Spielberg - SPR
Peter Weir - Truman
Steven Zaillian - Civil

Reason:
Kapur, Malick and Spielberg all seem like the heaviest contenders. Raimi falls into the "if they liked it, they'll pick it" category. Weir could be a surprise nominee, but any of the others also have a shot.

Screenplay:

Beloved
Bulworth
The Butcher Boy
A Civil Action
Elizabeth
The General
Hilary and Jackie
Little Voice
Pleasantville
Primary Colors
Saving Private Ryan
A Simple Plan
The Thin Red Line
The Truman Show

Reason:
The General seems like this year's The Boxer. Beloved was a good adaptation and Simple Plan is a critical favorite. Pleasantville and Truman Show are two of the most original screenplays this year and will likely double nom.

Original Score:

Antz
Beloved
A Bug's Life
Elizabeth
General
LIB
Mulan
Pleasantville
The Prince of Egypt
SPR
Simple
TRL
Truman

Reason:
None are locks, but POE and Mulan, both musicals, have good chances. Elizabeth, SPR and TRL also have good chances being the most dramatically centered of the nominees. I could even see them ignoring SPR for some off-the-wall nominee (anyone remember 1492: Conquest of Paradise?).

Original Song:

Deliver Us
Honor to Us All
I Don't Want to Miss a Thing
Iris
Looking Through Your Eyes
My One True Thing
Reflection
That'll Do
Uninvited
When You Believe

Reason:
Who knows. The GG are an odd lot.

Foreign Film:

Central Station
The Celebration
The Dreamlife of Angels
Eternity and a Day
Show Me Love

Reason:
Anything can happen here.

TV Drama Series:

Chicago Hope
ER
Fantasy Island
Felicity
Law & Order
NYPD Blue
The Practice
The X-Files

Reason:
This category should mirror the Emmys. Surprise contenders abound, especially with the Foreign Press.

TV Comedy/Musical Series:

Ally McBeal
Frasier
Friends
Home Improvement
Jesse
NewsRadio
Spin City
That 70s Show
3rd Rock from the Sun
Will & Grace

Reason:
Why stray too far from a formula that seems to work?

TV Drama Actor:

George Clooney - ER
David Duchovny - The X-Files
Anthony Edwards - ER
Dennis Franz - NYPD Blue
Lance Henrickson - Millennium
Dylan McDermott - The Practice
Malcolm McDowall - Fantasy Island
Rick Schroder - NYPD Blue
Jimmy Smits - NYPD Blue

Reason:
They'll go where the Emmys didn't this time. McDermott is critically acclaimed in The Practice and this could be their chance to right the wrong of the Emmys.

TV Drama Actress:

Gillian Anderson - The X-Files
Kim Delaney - NYPD Blue
Roma Downey - Touched by an Angel
Sarah Michelle Gellar - Buffy
Christine Lahti - Chicago Hope
Julianna Margulies - ER
Keri Russell - Felicity

Reason:
She's now the perennial Golden Globe winner. Now that Angela Lansbury's moved on from Murder, She Wrote, someone must take the reigns.

TV Comedy/Musical Actor:

Tim Allen - Home Improvement
Dave Foley - NewsRadio
Michael J. Fox - Spin City
Topher Grace - That 70s Show
Kelsey Grammer - Frasier
John Lithgow - 3rd Rock from the Sun
Eric McCormack - Will & Grace
Paul Reiser - Mad About You

Reason:
That 70s Show is one of those kinds of programs the GG love to nominate. They may go with Grace, but the others are almost guaranteed.

TV Comedy/Musical Actress:

Kirstie Alley - Veronica's Closet
Christina Applegate - Jesse
Jenna Elfman - Dharma & Greg
Calista Flockhart - Ally McBeal
Helen Hunt - Mad About You
Debra Messing - Will & Grace
Laura Prepon - That 70s Show
Patricia Richardson - Home Improvement
Brooke Shields - Suddenly Susan

Reason:
Elfman, Flockhart and Hunt are almost guaranteed slots. Alley is a favorite and Applegate is one of the best newcomers. Don't count out Messing, though. She's gotten raves.

Movie/Miniseries:

Crime and Punishment
David and Lisa
From the Earth to the Moon
Houdini
Mama Flora's Family
Merlin
Moby Dick
More Tales of the City
Rear Window
The Temptations
Winchell

Reason:
Always a tough category. They run at the opposite end of the year from the Emmys but carry newer features. Who knows what the end verdict will be this time. You can probably bet on the two big Emmy contenders Earth and Merlin to capture the most glory at the GGs.

Movie/Miniseries Actor:

Patrick Dempsey - Crime and Punishment
Tom Hanks - From the Earth to the Moon
Sam Neill - Merlin
Christopher Reeve - Rear Window
Jonathan Schaech - Houdini
Patrick Stewart - Moby Dick
Stanley Tucci - Winchell

Reason:
Accents and title characters should carry the weight here.

Movie/Miniseries Actress:

Olympia Dukakis - More Tales of the City
Whoopi Goldberg - A Knight in Camelot
Angelina Jolie - Gia
Joanna Kerns - Emma's Wish
Jane Seymour - A Marriage of Convenience
Lea Thompson - A Will of Their Own
Cicely Tyson - Mama Flora's Family

Reason:
More from-nowhere-pulling.

Supporting Actor:

Hector Elizondo - Chicago Hope
Sean P. Hayes - Will & Grace
David Hyde Pierce - Frasier
Ben Kingsley - Crime and Punishment
Eriq LaSalle - ER
Peter MacNicol - Ally McBeal
Gregory Peck - Moby Dick
Martin Short - Merlin
Mario Van Peebles - Mama Flora's Family
Noah Wyle - ER

Reason:
I'm really pulling most of these out of random places.

Supporting Actress:

Ellen Burstyn - A Will of Their Own
Lisa Nicole Carson - Ally McBeal
Helena Bonham Carter - Merlin
Blythe Danner - Saint Maybe
Julie Delpy - Crime and Punishment
Sally Field - From the Earth to the Moon
Laura Innes - ER
Kristen Johnston - 3rd Rock from the Sun
Alex Kingston - ER
Jane Krakowski - Ally McBeal
Queen Latifah - Mama Flora's Family
Sharon Lawrence - NYPD Blue
Jane Leeves - Frasier
Camryn Manheim - The Practice
Kellie Martin - ER
Megan Mullally - Will & Grace
Kathy Najimy - Veronica's Closet
Della Reese - Touched by an Angel
Gloria Reuben - ER
Miranda Richardson - Merlin

Reason:
Anyone's guess is as good as mine. Way too many contenders.