And So The Race Ends

It began many months ago when critics who should have known better began to recognize Slumdog Millionaire that the ball started rolling. Hope has always been alive of another winner based on a number of other factors, but tonight, the Screen Actors Guild basically clinched the film the Oscar for Best Picture.

No, the Screen Actors Guild isn't the best predicter of Best Picture, but this is a cast entire devoid of well known names. They aren't Hollywood royalty and even those who've seen the film wouldn't say that they were a particularly talented ensemble. But here we are. They win the Cast in a Motion Picture award from the Screen Actors Guild. If a film like this can win this award, then there is nothing standing in the way between it and Oscar victory.

Like many recent contests, the winners seem to be pre-ordained long before we get to the ceremony and little could be farther from the truth this year. We have a lock in Best Picture, Best Supporting Actor, Best Director and, with a win tonight from SAG, a likely lock for Best Actor. And with the full force of two powerful performances, Kate Winslet has a very strong chance of winning her first Oscar.

So, what does that leave? Most people don't care about the tech awards or the documentaries, short films and foreign language films and even some of those races seem to be little more than waiting games. The one bonafide competition is in Supporting Actress where Kate Winslet's vacation to Best Actress makes it a truly competitive race. A strong case could be made for all of the nominees. Tonight's award at the SAGs had no impact on the race whatsoever. So, now we have one potential shining spot of suspense and a bunch of perfunctory presentations.

I long for the days when movies I actually liked had a shot. But, who knows if that will ever happen again. This will be the fifth year in a row where another film in the Best Picture lineup has been better than the eventual winner. Let's hope for a more exciting 2009 race.

Don't let my disappointment keep you from enjoying the awards season. I will continue to bring you coverage of the latest precursor results and update the site faithfully as ne events unfold.

In addition, I have posted my first post-nomination predictions. Check them out at the 81st Predictions link at the right.

-Wesley Lovell (January 25, 2009)

Brief Commentary

I have posted the full list of nominees, correcting two errors I had yesterday (The Wrestler was inadvertently listed instead of Wanted in the sound categories) and adding the full list of individuals nominated alongside their films in all categories.

And now that I've had time to digest the nomines for the 81st Academy Awards, I find myself unable to really express my feelings towards them. I'm rooting for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, but I'd accept virtually anything winning over Slumdog Millionaire, an interesting film that has been overhyped and paralyzed by partisans who look to its fate-controls-all mentality as a wonderful plot device. Yet, it suggests that no matter what our decisions fate will always see us through. And while I like the movie well enough, there were so many better films released this year and I just don't understand how something so standard in make can be so heavily supported. But that's my opinion only and will have no impact on my predictions.

Though, I must say I'm going against the grain and predicting an Oscar for Benjamin Button. You may wonder why and I'll give you 13 reasons why. Only three films in Oscar history have managed to lose Best Picture with a 13-nom count. One of those was destined to lose because honoring a fantasy film, especially the first in a trilogy that no one knew how the rest would turn out certainly had no shot of winning (after all, with the disappointments of the Star Wars trilogies, The Matrix trilogies and the final chapter of The Godfather trilogy disappointing, the Academy took a wait-and-see attitude and gave it a victory later.

The other two, Mary Poppins and Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf? may not have felt important enough to Academy voters to give their awards to. My Fair Lady was a far more adult film than Mary Poppins and was only one nod behind with 12. Woolf on the other hand was propelled by acting nominations, but lost to another period film about old English politics, A Man for All Seasons. Other factors working against the film are no acting nominations (though that didn't stop Chariots of Fire, The Last Emperor or The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King from winning.

A lot will depend on how well these films perform with the guilds. DGA will probably tell us the most as I can't imagine PGA not going for the more impressive box office tally of The Dark Knight. But, we'll see. Enjoy your day.

-Wesley Lovell (January 22, 2009)

81st Annual Academy Awards Nominations

The nominations have been announced and they are now online. Just click the link above. I will have commentary later this evening.

-Wesley Lovell (January 22, 2009)

81st Annual Academy Awards Nominations Forewarning

Today is the day the 81st Annual Academy Awards Nominations will be announced. Stay tuned for the posting of the nominations, which will be up just as soon as I can get them posted after the announcement.

Speaking of which, the announcement will be made starting around 5:35a (Pacific) and be announced by Academy president Sid Ganis and Oscar winner Forest Whitaker. You can probably catch it live on E!, CNN or any number of other outlets.

-Wesley Lovell (January 22, 2009)

Final Predictions, Part III

And here we are. Less than 24 hours until the nominations for the 81st Academy Awards will be announced. It was announced today that Forest Whitaker will join Academy president Sid Ganis in the nominations announcement.

Today my analysis of this year's nominations race culminates with my final post of my final predictions. The update includes a discussion of the categories Best Picture, Director, Editing, Cinematography, Makeup, Visual Effects and Foreign Language Film. To get there, just click the 81st Predictions link in the boxes at the right.

Also, if you have not printed out your Oscar Morning tracking sheet, just click the 81st Oscars box at the right and follow it to the Oscar Morning page nd download the .pdf.

If I don't get my page updated before then, have a happy nominations Morning. I'll post the final nominations as soon as possible on Thursday morning.

-Wesley Lovell (January 21, 2009)

Final Predictions, Part II

Two days to go and it's time for another update to my Predictions Comments. The predictions on the 81st Predictions page linked to in the block at right are all up-to-date, but my comments on each race are being added one at a time. Today, you can find my notes on Best Animated Feature, Actor, Actress, Original Screenplay, Adapted Screenplay, Art Direction and Costume Design.

And tomorrow, you'll get all the remaining categories.

And don't forget, the 81st Oscars page block-linked at the right, has a new page called Oscar Morning, where you can understand how the nominations will be announced on Thursday morning and how the order of announcements could change our perceptions of the race as the nominations are announced. It should help you know what to expect as names are being read. There's also a .pdf linked at the top of the article that you can print out and track the nominations as they are announced.

-Wesley Lovell (January 20, 2009)

Final Predictions, Part I

With only three days remaining until the nominations for the 81st Annual Academy Awards are announced, it's time to get cracking on my final predictions.

I've actually had them done since late last week, but decided to hold off on updating them until today. Along with my predictions, over the next three days, I will post my thoughts on each of the races being run. Today, I have added comments for Best Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Score, Original Song, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Documentary Feature and Documentary Short.

Tomorrow, I will reveal 8 more categories. To get to these comments and access my final predictions, visit the 81st Predictions block at the right.

In addition, I've prepared my traditional Oscar Morning aide. It's designed to help you effortlessly watch the nominations announcements live and know what to expect as the nominations are announced. The Oscar Morning page has been updated on the 81st Oscars page, accessible through the 81st Oscars block at the right.

-Wesley Lovell (January 19, 2009)

Foreign Film Finalits & New Predictions, Part II

Just when I thought it was safe to update my predictions, things suddenly changed on me. The first was that the Academy, today, released the final nine contestants for the Foreign Language Film award nominations. This is new for them, so it was completely unexpected. Those nine films are included in my predictions list right now. In addition, the Costume Designers, sometime between when I first looked at their timetable and now, changed their nominations announcement to today. If I remember correctly, they did the same thing last year, but I had entirely forgotten and probably will next year as well. But, based on those nominations, I have further updated my predictions.

Also, sometime by the end of this week or the beginning of next, I will be posting my Oscar Morning primer detailing the live announcement of the 81st Annual Oscar nominations next Thursday. It is a resource I provide to help you know what to watch for and when to expect the surprises. It will also include a .pdf listing all the nominees in the categories to be announced in alphabetical order the way the Academy might read them off. This checklist will allow you to quickly take note of who was a nominee and who was not.

-Wesley Lovell (January 13, 2009)

New Predictions

A lot has happened since I last updated my predictions a week ago. Major guilds announced nominees, the Broadcast Film Critics Association and the Golden Globes both announced their winners and thus, I feel compelled to update. These are not my final predictions. Those probably won't come out until the day before the nominations. But, at this point, these are my best guesses. I still need to wait for the British Academy's nominations on Thursday, the Costume Designers Guild and Visual Effects Society nominations on Saturday and, to a minor extent, the Online Film Critics Society winners on Sunday.

Once these four groups are done, there's nothing else ahead of the Academy's January 22 nominations, so I'll be working on my final predicitons then along with an in depth article on Nominations morning, what to expect and how to gauge first-hand, and on-the-fly what the nominees will be based on who and what is announced early in the morning. Stay tuned for that as it will likely go up sometime this weekend or Monday morning depending on how much time I've got to work on it until then.

-Wesley Lovell (January 13, 2009)

More Oscar Finalists

We have two more sets of Oscar finalists to announce today. The Visual Effects and Makeup branches have selected the seven films from which they will select the final nominees. Usually, they select three each, but have in the past chosen only two. We'll know more on Oscar nomination morning.

These finalists have been updated on my Hopefuls page, accessible by clicking the Predictions link at the right.

-Wesley Lovell (January 6, 2009)

The Week of Big Announcements

Today wasn't the only big announcement this week as the Producers Guild of America are merely the first of the prominent guilds to announce this week.

The American Society of Cinematographers will either be revealed today or tomorrow, the Visual Effects Society should be announcing today or sometime this week, The Writers Guild of America announces its nominees on Wednesday, the Cinema Audio Society and the big daddy of precursor guilds, The Directors Guild of America, announce on Thursday, and the Art Directors Guild announces on Friday. That will take us into the weekend where the Golden Globe Awards will be announced on Sunday and be followed the next week by the American Cinema Editors, British Academy Awards and Costume Designers Guild.

And what does all this mean? A lot of changes to my predictions by Tuesday of next week...and the Oscar nominations are now less than three weeks away (Thursday, January 22, to be exact).

If you thought December was hectic with all the critics awards, just wait until January is over!

-Wesley Lovell (January 5, 2009)