Major Oscar Updates
I've been working on updates to The Oscars section for some time and the first look at the fruit of my efforts is up. Check out The Oscars section and see what's available. Also updating this week are all the previews from the previous week and a new review for The Nanny Diairies. Check those pages for more information.
-Wesley Lovell (September 15, 2007)
Week Ending September 8
For those of you who check in frequently to this page to see what updates (even if you don't already know when my regular updates occur), I want to let you know that thanks to the new graphic links above, I won't be updating this front page nearly as frequently. Instead, I'll be updating the associated pages.
This was my original intention with the new layout, but I couldn't break the habit I'd developed over the past year. So, from this point forward, all of my regular updates will be on the associated pages. Previews will be discussed on the Previews page. Reviews hashed out on the Reviews page and so forth.
Peter's DVD section is also going to see a couple of changes just to make it easier to navigate and decrease the weight of his pages (there are nearly 50 links in each of his reports and that generally leads to up to 600 links on one page). Along with graphics and text, that means his page is perpetually overloading itself by size. That layout and design will be arriving with his regular weekly update on Tuesday this coming week.
With the next Hopefuls update, a history section will be added to the page where I'll discuss the changes that have occurred so you can keep track without having to sort through the entire thing (that is if I don't just say: "too many updates to detail, so here are a few notable changes." At that point, you'll just have to sift through yourself).
So, the links that would normally follow this post have been removed. You'll need to click on the appropriately-updated link above. Oh...and the picture associated with this post does tie in tangentially.
-Wesley Lovell (September 8, 2007)
Previews: Upcoming Film Releases
Reviews: Box Office Report
-Wesley Lovell (September 4, 2007)
Oscar Hopefuls and Other Updates
The full transition to the new design is progressing nicely. There are still several areas left to update, but they are coming along quite nicely. The biggest update yet is my first update to my Oscar Hopefuls page since May. There weren't many changes, but enough to remove several clunkers and even a film pushed to next year (The Other Boleyn Girl).
Saturday will be my next Previews Update, which you'll be able to find linked below tomorrow.
Oscars: 80th Academy Awards Hopefuls-Wesley Lovell (August 12, 2007)
Week Ending September 1
One of these weeks I'll get caught up on reviews. Until then, have some fun with this week's new trailers. There aren't many polished gems, but a few unpolished ones released with a few clunkers.
Previews: 2007 PreviewsPreviews: 2008 Previews
-Wesley Lovell (September 1, 2007)
DVD: The DVD ReportPreviews: Upcoming Film Releases
Reviews: Box Office Report
-Wesley Lovell (August 28, 2007)
Week Ending August 25
Another week without new reviews. Sure there were fewer new previews this week, but I've been working on the remaining updates for the site, so you'll have to wait another week or two for me to get back in the swing of things. But let me promise you this: Around Halloween, I will be posting a series of reviews looking back at a specific series of horror films that hold a place in my heart. If you can figure it out, I'll give you a cookie; but you'd have to fly to my home town to claim it.
Previews: 2007 PreviewsPreviews: 2008 Previews
-Wesley Lovell (August 25, 2007)
DVD: The DVD ReportPreviews: Upcoming Film Releases
Reviews: Box Office Report
-Wesley Lovell (August 21, 2007)
Week Ending August 18
Here we are with my long-postponed update from last week. There are lots of new trailers and posters, plus some moves. Charlie Bartlett has been officially pushed back to 2008. I have shifted it to that year in all my sections. I have not posted a new review as today's update was rather large, so hopefully I'll get those going again next week.
Previews: 2007 PreviewsPreviews: 2008 Previews
-Wesley Lovell (August 18, 2007)
DVD: The DVD ReportPreviews: Upcoming Film Releases
Reviews: Box Office Report
-Wesley Lovell (August 14, 2007)
Welcome to the New Site
The new site is finally up! While I wish that I could have everything up I wanted, we'll have to make do with what we have. The Reviews pages for 1996 through 2005 are not finalized and will be updated soon. The Oscars History section is a little bare as many of the pages have not been transferred yet. Several pages have been moved to new locations. Box Office is now located in the Reviews section and the Release Schedule is now in the Previews section. Speaking of Previews, the Trailers & Posters section is now the Previews area. There are several other changes, but I'll let you explore a little.
This past Saturday's updates have been pushed off to this coming Saturday, so new Previews will start appearing this coming Saturday.
-Wesley Lovell (August 12, 2007)
Construction
Please be advised that today's normal update has been delayed. I am working hard to finish my updates to the site before I head back to work on Monday. So, you should, hopefully, see that redesign I promised so long ago by the end of the weekend. Thank you for your patience. When the update goes out, you may find your access to the site limited. The UAADB will still be up, but I will have to remove the old site from the server and update the new site, so things are guaranteed to be down for an hour or more, probably some time on Sunday.
-Wesley Lovell (August 12, 2007)
Week Ending August 11
DVD: The DVD ReportPreviews: Upcoming Film Releases
Reviews: Box Office Report
-Wesley Lovell (August 7, 2007)
Week Ending August 4
Lots of new trailers and posters today, both from 2007 and 2008. Also, a new review in the form of The Simpsons Movie. The new design is coming along nicely, but quite a bit of data still needs to be imported. You can get an idea of some of the changes by taking a look at the UAADB page and see the new logo for that page. The new main logo should look quite similar in the end.
Review: The Simpsons MoviePreviews: 2007 Previews
Previews: 2008 Previews
-Wesley Lovell (August 4, 2007)
DVD: The DVD ReportPreviews: Upcoming Film Releases
Reviews: Box Office Report
-Wesley Lovell (July 31, 2007)
Ingmar Bergman Dead at 89
Legendary filmmaker Ingmar Bergman (1918-2007) passed away Monday at the age of 89. His film repetoire is among the most celebrated and important in film history.
Bergman never received an Academy Award, despite being nomianted nine times. He received the Irving G. Thalberg Memorial Award from the Academy in 1970.
His filmography is filled with more than a dozen pictures that have been celebrated by many critics and historians around the world. Smiles of a Summer Night, The Seventh Seal, Wild Strawberries, Through a Glass Darkly, Persona, Shame, Cries and Whispers, Scenes from a Marriage, Face to Face, Autumn Sonata and Fanny & Alexander are just a few of titles in his impressive oeuvre.
There are none who could replace him and few who could challenge his talent and ability. He will be sorely missed.
-Wesley Lovell (July 30, 2007)
Online Film & Television Association Television Awards
The OFTA announced today the nominees for its 11th Annual Television Awards. Check out the link below for their site and find out who and what was nominated.
OFTA: Online Film & Television Awards
-Wesley Lovell (July 24, 2007)
Week Ending July 28
The last update for July is here. Although we have no new reviews (I didn't see anything at the theater this week), we have plenty of new trailers and posters to look at. There isn't much more of interest this week, so stay tuned for our next update on Tuesday and prepare yourself for a site layout change which should be coming by the end of August.
Previews: 2007 Previews
Previews: 2008 Previews
-Wesley Lovell (July 28, 2007)
Articles: The DVD ReportPreviews: Upcoming Film Releases
Reviews: Box Office Report
-Wesley Lovell (July 24, 2007)
Week Ending July 21
With the release of the seventh Harry Potter book and the fifth movie, I thought it only appropriate to do an entire day of updates looking back at the reviews of all five Harry Potter films. I must also put them each in perspective as I believe they should be ranked.
1. Prisoner of Azkaban (3rd)2. Goblet of Fire (4th)
3. Chamber of Secrets (2nd)
4. Order of the Phoenix (5th)
5. Sorcerer's Stone (1st)
As you can see the fourth film was quite a bit of a let down after the rising quality of the productions since Chris Columbus left. However, all are still amazingly engaging films. You can find out more details as you peruse the reviews. Also important to note are the release dates of the final two films:
Half-Blood Prince releases November 21, 2008. Deathly Hallows has no official release date but will be opening in 2010, finishing off a decade of films.
Review: Harry Potter and the Order of the PhoenixReview: Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire
Review: Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban
Review: Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets
Review: Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone
Previews: 2007 Previews
Previews: 2008 Previews
-Wesley Lovell (July 21, 2007)
Articles: The DVD ReportPreviews: Upcoming Film Releases
Reviews: Box Office Report
-Wesley Lovell (July 17, 2007)
Week Ending July 14
With a glut of new trailers, I decided I'd just write one review this week. So, you get this past weeks' film release plus four new 2008 trailers, fourteen 2007 trailers and a few other updates.
Review: TransformersPreviews: 2007 Previews
Previews: 2008 Previews
-Wesley Lovell (July 14, 2007)
Articles: The DVD ReportPreviews: Upcoming Film Releases
Reviews: Box Office Report
-Wesley Lovell (July 10, 2007)
Week Ending July 7
Well, I'm out of films from 2007 to review, so each week now you'll be getting the film I saw the previous Monday and one film from the past either in desperate need of an update or one that I have not yet reviewed. This week, we take one of Pixar's best films and put it next to the greatest film of its generation. Ratatouille and Citizen Kane are as different as can be, but sometimes you have to celebrate the diversity of filmmaking.
There are lots of new posters and trailers to choose from, both in the 2007 section and the 2008. Peter's DVD report is his shortest yet but with an exceptionally weak week for DVD releases, he did his best with a holiday-themed edition.
As it is also the beginning of July, all of April's new content has been archived.
Review: RatatouilleReview: Citizen Kane
Previews: 2007 Previews
Previews: 2008 Previews
-Wesley Lovell (July 7, 2007)
Articles: The DVD ReportPreviews: Upcoming Film Releases
Reviews: Box Office Report
-Wesley Lovell (July 3, 2007)
Week Ending June 30
It is an amazingly slow week for trailer updates despite there being four completely new films. So, I finally get a short weekend and you do too. After all, it is the pre-July 4th holiday weekend.
For the past couple of weeks (this week excluded), there have been 2008 films with trailer presentations. However, in my haste to get my posts up, I neglected to include a proper link to the 2008 page. You'll find below now two links to the trailer pages. The ever-broader 2007 page and the three-title 2008 page.
Review: Evan AlmightyReview: Epic Movie
Previews: 2007 Previews
Previews: 2008 Previews
-Wesley Lovell (June 30, 2007)
Articles: The DVD ReportPreviews: Upcoming Film Releases
Reviews: Box Office Report
-Wesley Lovell (June 26, 2007)
Week Ending June 23
I lament never finding a Saturday with only a handful of new trailers to post. It would mean I could get this update out on a Saturday for a change. However, we have to settle for a Sunday update.
As anyone who knows something about themes will have guessed, I decided to pair Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer with the other comic-book-adapted feature Ghost Rider. This year's significant lack of quality does suggest a bubble bursting in the comic book genre, but we won't likely see the end of it until well into the 2010s, which is unfortunate. Let's just hope The Dark Knight isn't a disappointment.
Review: Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver SurferReview: Ghost Rider
Trailer: Trailers
-Wesley Lovell (June 24, 2007)
Articles: The DVD ReportPreviews: Upcoming Film Releases
Reviews: Box Office Report
-Wesley Lovell (June 20, 2007)
This Week's Update
I was out of town this week watching an amazing touring production of Wicked, so I am running a bit behind. There will not be any film reviews posted this week, but the trailers section has been updated. Next week, I'll definitely yield some reviews as we have Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer on our schedule for Monday. In addition, I'll be posting my penultimate "catch-up" review. I'll surprise you in a week with whether I've chosen to review Epic Movie or Ghost Rider.
Trailer: Trailers-Wesley Lovell (June 16, 2007)
Articles: The DVD ReportPreviews: Upcoming Film Releases
Reviews: Box Office Report
-Wesley Lovell (June 12, 2007)
This Week's Update
As the site expands, the bandwidth expands as well. In order to decrease the bandwidth, I'm going to start opening the Archive sooner. This page, the Box Office and Film Release Schedule pages will all be updated to a regular archive schedule. At the beginning of each month, anything that's over two months out of date will be shifted to the archive page. You can find a link to the Archive at the bottom of the pages being archived.
Also be aware that due to an issue with the site re-design, it will not be up as quickly as I'd hoped. However, I've started working on my own new set of graphics, so we should have something hopefully soon.
This archive update accompanies this week's regular update. I did not get to the movies this past week, nor will I next week. So, this week, I'm reviewing one from from 2007 and another film from the past.
Review: Meet the RobinsonsReview: Fantasia
Trailer: Trailers
-Wesley Lovell (June 9, 2007)
Articles: The DVD ReportPreviews: Upcoming Film Releases
Reviews: Box Office Report
-Wesley Lovell (June 5, 2007)
A Delayed Update
Due to a number of mitigating circumstances this week, I was unable to fully update the site yesterday. However, today, I have posted two new reviews, updated all of the trailer pages to correct broken links and I happily remind you of the DVD report and other reports from this past week.
Review: Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's EndReview: Premonition
Trailer: Trailers
-Wesley Lovell (June 3, 2007)
Articles: The DVD ReportPreviews: Upcoming Film Releases
Reviews: Box Office Report
-Wesley Lovell (May 29, 2007)
Another Week of Updates
We have another week of updates. Although I don't have any news for you on the site's new design, I at least have the normal weekly allotment of updates. Tuesday updates still push on Tuesdays and Saturday updates still push on Saturdays. Feel free to check those pages even if I don't post the links in my personal updates. They will always be there by midnight.
Review: GrindhouseReview: Shrek the Third
Trailer: Trailers
-Wesley Lovell (May 26, 2007)
Articles: The DVD ReportNews: Upcoming Film Releases
News: Box Office Report
-Wesley Lovell (May 22, 2007)
My Kingdom for a Horse
The title of this update has absolutely nothing to do with it. It was just the first thing that popped into my head as I was writing this. Anyway, today's update is a massive one. There were countless new posters and trailers available and thus it took much longer to get done than usual.
Somewhat tangentially, I often go to the movies on Monday nights. This generally allows me to review a new movie each week. However, I've been hard-pressed to find the time to update my reviews, so I made myself a pledge. Every Saturday when I'm updating the trailers pages, I'll also be putting together at least one review (hopefully and preferably two). One of the reviews I post will be a new movie from the previous weekend (if there were any to see) or another film that I'd seen in the past week. The second review (if I'm able to get to it) will be of a film that I've already seen this year. There will also be some Hollywood classics thrown in for good measure.
So, now there are two days of updates you can look forward to. Saturdays for new film, trailer and poster reviews and Tuesdays for the new DVD Report.
Trailer: TrailersReview: Spider-Man 3
Review: 300
-Wesley Lovell (May 12, 2007)
The New DVD Report
As The Oscar Guy website prepares for its new look, we've already begun our expansion of coverage. Today, we welcome Peter J. Patrick with his first weekly issue of The DVD Report.
Every Tuesday, Peter will use his immense knowledge of film history to provide our readers with a look at the week's new DVD releases and help them to make informed decisions on those films that might otherwise slip by your radar. The articles will also feature links to all of the DVDs discussed and a sidebar including the Top 10 DVD Sales and DVD Rentals, and a full list of released DVDs for the week.
Article: The DVD Report-Wesley Lovell (May 8, 2007)
80th Hopefuls Update
This time of the year brings two major events. The first is the start of the Summer movie season. The second is the beginning of my Oscar prognostications. Today, I release my first predictions for the 80th Academy Awards. These predictions are highly speculative and are guaranteed to change at least ten times before my final predictions are announced next January.
Still, it's a bit fun to look at what's coming and try to pick out the films that will be hits with Oscar and see which will falter trying to cross the finish line. I don't make predictions on Original Song because this data's seldom available before the last film releases for the year. There is a section for Documentary Short Subjects that will be filled in when the Academy announces the short list. Foreign Language Film features a number of films from several different countries that may or may not compete, but could. The full list is below.
History: 80th Oscar Hopefuls.-Wesley Lovell (May 1, 2007)
Three Major Announcements
Today, we make three very special announcements.
The first is that our newest section is finally up. The Trailers & Posters area is now available for you to peruse. There are more than one hundred trailer reviews available along with poster reviews and a special segment discussing the films' Oscar prospects.
Moving on to our second announcement, we would like to prepare you for a new look. Coming soon to this site is a dazzling new design which will be accompanied by some great new content. The News Section will be completely overhauled and two writers will be moving in.
Wes Huizar has graciously agreed to do the new artwork for the site and will be providing significantly more in-depth analysis of the weekend box office than I was providing. He'll also be contributing some very intriguing box office statistics having to do with the Oscars.
Peter J. Patrick, who has long been providing terrific DVD content for the message board will be putting together regular reports on upcoming DVD releases.
I welcome both of these gentlemen to the team and hope that their content is every bit as valuable to you as it is to me. Look to see these changes sometime within the next month.
The final announcement is not site-related but has to do with the Academy Awards. Last week, the Academy announced the timetable for the 80th Annual Academy Awards. Below is that list and the Countdown above has been changed to represent the date and time of next year's Oscar nominations.
Mon. Dec. 3, 2007: Official Screen CreditsWed. Dec. 26, 2007: Nominations ballots mailed
Sat. Jan. 12, 2008: Nominations polls close 5 p.m. PST
Tue. Jan. 22, 2008: Nominations announced 5:30 a.m. PST, Samuel Goldwyn Theater
Wed. Jan. 30, 2008: Final ballots mailed
Mon. Feb. 4, 2008: Nominees Luncheon
Sat. Feb. 9, 2008: Scientific and Technical Achievement Awards presentation
Tue. Feb. 19, 2008: Final polls close 5 p.m. PST
Sun. Feb. 24, 2008: 80th Annual Academy Awards presentation.
-Wesley Lovell (March 28, 2007)
Dawn of a New Day
Actually, it's been many dawns since the suspenseful 79th Academy Awards shuttered its cameras. But, I'm speaking to the future of the website. With my title, I can't exactly play the death of the website for a joke, so I'll get right to what I'm about to announce.
In order to broaden my selections, I'll be adding a new section to the website within the coming weeks. This addition will focus on film previews and an examination of pre-release Oscar prospects. As each trailer is posted, I will provide a review of my expectations for the film, what you as a viewer might expect and a forecast to the prospects the film might have at the Academy Awards. This content will also bridge to my review should I see the film (which means lots of trailer reviews without companion film criticism).
The end result should help you decide what films to avoid and for which films you should spend your hard-earned money.
-Wesley Lovell (March 13, 2007)
79th Academy Awards Wrap Up
The 79th Academy Awards went off with nary a hitch. The Awards were all over the place resulting in a wide variety of winning predictions. Below is a link to my Oscar follow up article taking a look at this year's ceremony. I examine what worked and what didn't and include the biggest surprises, mistakes and successes.
I've also updated my winners prediction success rate. It isn't my best year, nor is it my worst, so I don't feel terribly bad. And since things weren't incredibly predictable, I'm not seriously upset.
79th Academy Awards: Wrap Up79th Academy Awards: Predictions Success Rate
79th Academy Awards: Awards Ceremony
-Wesley Lovell (February 25, 2007)
THE 79TH ANNUAL ACADEMY AWARDS
The Winners have been announced. Check the link below and check tomorrow for my take on this year's Oscars.
79th Academy Awards: Winners-Wesley Lovell (February 25, 2007)
Oscar Night Preparations
The day we've all been waiting for is here. The Academy Awards ceremony begins tonight. After last year's disastrous events, tonight's ceremony may be a little more laid back. That's because no front-runner is safe (except maybe Helen Mirren). Even expected winners like Forest Whitaker and Jennifer Hudson could lose their trophies to others.
To help everyone get a sense of how things are going in the night, I'm preparing this guide. It's nothing like my guides of past years, I'll simply be listing each picture and the categories where a win might signal something for the big award.
After my last article was posted, I had someone ask me if I really think it's possible that my predicted winner of Best Picture, Babel, might end up as I have predicted without a single other Oscar. It's never happened to a multiple-nominee before (Grand Hotel won Best Picture, its only nomination, back in 1932). The best way I can answer that is: statistically, it's possible. Let's say 5,000 members of the Academy vote. A film to win Best Picture only needs 1,001 votes. That means it's rivals could have at max 1,000 votes each (with the fifth a paltry 999 votes. Now, let's say the voters for The Departed (1,000) and The Queen (1,000) all prefer other choices to Babel in the categories in which it's nominated. That's 2,000 votes, which is already enough to win. So, it is entirely possible for it to happen.
However, this event is unlikely...I just can't find a category in which Babel will really excel if trends persist. Now, I think it's entirely possible that The Departed or Little Miss Sunshine will win Best Picture (hell, even The Queen and Letters from Iwo Jima have an equal shot). No victory will surprise me this year. Many will sadden me, but none will surprise.
Babel - This film feels so much like Crash that it's scary. It has 7 nominations, but can only win a maximum of six (two Supporting Actresses aren't likely to tie). Its scoring nomination is the only award it may pick up in addition to Best Picture, but may not. If it wins Original Screenplay and Editing, the chances of a victory for Best Picture rise. If it wins Supporting Actress and/or Director, then I guarantee it will be selected Best Picture.
The Departed - We already know Scorsese has his trophy in the bag (or does he? haven't we been here before?) and Adapted Screenplay seems like it's in the bag, so those categories won't give us any indicate (unless it loses both, at which point we know Departed is NOT going to be best picture). While an Editing win won't be a shock it might be an indication that the film will win Best Picture. If Mark Wahlberg wins, then I guarantee it will be selected Best Picture.
Little Miss Sunshine - The film with only four nominations feels too much like crowd pleaser The Full Monty to be a winner here. However, it could still win. It's a safe bet that it will win Original Screenplay. If Alan Arkin wins, then Best Picture will be significantly more likely. If Abigail Breslin wins, Best Picture is virtually guaranteed.
The Queen - It also has an award locked down. Its trophy for Mirren is as sure a thing as we've ever seen. A win in Original Score won't be shocking but a victory in Original Screenplay could be a good sign. The true test will be if it wins Costume Design and/or Director. At that point, I would guarantee a Best Picture victory.
Letters from Iwo Jima - Four nominations and only one potential victory, Sound Editing. If Clint Eastwood takes Best Director or the film wins for Original Screenplay, you can pretty much bet safely that it will win Best Picture.
It's difficult to find a year that the front-runner in Best Picture has been virtually non-existent. I haven't seen so many disparate predictions for the top prize since I've been doing this. So, if I'm right, I'll be happy. If I'm wrong, I won't be upset. There are a few contests that I will be severely disappointed to see go the wrong direction, but for the first time in a very long time, I so emotionally detached from the Best Picture winner that I really couldn't care less which one wins.
My final predictions are up. They won't be changing anymore. And as the last rays of sun set below the horizon in Los Angeles, we'll all be sitting in front of some sort of television to watch this year's festivities. If you don't have access, come back often to catch the winners as they are announced.
-Wesley Lovell (February 25, 2007)
Independent Spirit Awards
Three groups were to have announced awards yesterday. I've only been able to access one of those groups, the Independent Spirit Awards. The Motion Picture Sound Editors have not provided press releases on their winners, so I have not been able to locate that data and the Razzie Awards I wouldn't update here anyway.
The ISA went as expected heavily towards Little Miss Sunshine which won Picture, Director, First Screenplay and Supporting Actor for Alan Arkin. The only other film to win multiple trophies was Half-Nelson which won for Lead Actor and Actress Ryan Gosling and Shareeka Epps. For the full list, visit the Precursor Awards link below and see where they compare in the tallies at the appropriate link. I'll update the MPSE as soon as I find the data.
79th Academy Awards: Precursor Awards79th Academy Awards: Precursor Tallies
-Wesley Lovell (January 25, 2007)
79th Academy Awards Predictions Articles: Top Six
The final article of my Oscar Predictions Trilogy has been posted below. The top six categories are probably the easiest to predict with only Best Picture being somewhat of a mystery. However, I've fearlessly made my predictions (though, keep in mind, I have right up until Sunday morning to make my final predictions should anything change).
I will also be posting the results live on this website and on the message boardSunday evening, so if you're near a coputer and don't have a party to go to, share memories with us and watch as countless people moan and groan about the winners shortly after they are announced!
Also check out the final updated predictions at the link below. Each category is ordered in the order I think they are most likely to win. And the Academy has released the last list of names for presenters. You can check that out in the left column or at the link below.
79th Academy Awards: Oscar Predictions Article: Top Six Categories79th Academy Awards: Academy Awards Predictions
79th Academy Awards: Oscar Ceremony
-Wesley Lovell (February 23, 2007)
79th Academy Awards Predictions Articles: Second Tier
We continue our annual peak into the year's Oscar race with a glimpse at this year's Secodn Tier categories. Featuring the writing and music categories, these are sometimes predictive of what might happen when the final envelope is opened.
Many of my predictions have been pretty fluid since I started writing this article. I have not yet updated my Predictions page, so do not go by it for my official predictions. These are being made in a spreadsheet that will be updated once my final article goes out tomorrow.
79th Academy Awards: Oscar Predictions Article: Second Tier Categories-Wesley Lovell (February 22, 2007)
79th Academy Awards Predictions Articles: Tech
There are some years that there is little fun in predicting the winners. The year Titanic swept, there was little to do except predict smaller categories which were far from suspenseful. This year, however, we are faced with a multitude of races that could be won by the smallest of margins. So, to handicap the 79th Academy Awards, I've put together three predictions articles that look in depth at each race up for the year's big prizes and analyze it to see if we can find anything from history to point us towards a high accuracy rating.
Today, we begin with the Tech categories. These eight awards are usually harbingers of things to come later in the evening. WIth the exception of the Editing category, the dearth of Best Picture contenders makes them far less predictive than in past years. Nevertheless, we'll press on with our predictions. Tomorrow, the second tier categories will be discussed.
79th Academy Awards: Oscar Predictions Article: Tech Categories-Wesley Lovell (February 21, 2007)
Pre-Oscar Monday Update
The big night is almost here! If you've been watching the Oscar Night Countdown clock at the top right of my page, you know how extremely close the ceremony is. This coming Sunday, all of the world will find out what films take home Oscars.
This week is going to be filled with updates. These won't necessarily come daily, but you won't be disappointd in the content.
Starting off today, I've updated quite a few precursor Awards that have been handed out recently, especially including five big tech guilds: American Cinema Editors, American Society of Cinematographers, Art Directors Guild, Costume Designers Guild and Cinema Audio Society. These organizations while not the perfect models of Oscar prognostication, certainly give us clues to the eventual winner. Some of the choices were surprising and some gave us no help whatsoever. However, instead of going into my thoughts here, you'll have to wait until an update later this week...
Starting Wednesday, after ballots are in and all the influences that could possibly have been felt are held at bay, I'm going to be posting my annual Oscar handicapping articles. If you visit the Articles section you can see my thoughts on last year. This year, I must be more astute as the non-acting categories seem likely for upsets.
There may also be other presenters announced this week, those will be updated as I get them.
Other than that, my final predictions will go up Saturday evening or Sunday morning depending on the speed of result for the Motion Picture Sound Editors Guild awards. Though I don't think they'll have much impact, some surprise might give us pause in our predictions.
Until then, enjoy what you've got here and stay tuned for Wednesday's Oscar Article opening with the tech categories.
79th Academy Awards: Precursor Awards79th Academy Awards: Precursor Tallies
79th Academy Awards: Oscar Presenters
-Wesley Lovell (February 19, 2007)
Writers Guild of America
The Writers Guild of America tossed Babel a curve ball on Sunday when it selected Little Miss Sunshine as Best Original Screanplay. The choice further adds disperity to this year's Oscar race making LMS an even more likely choice for Best Picture.
The Adapted Screenplay award went as expected to The Departed setting it up to win that category on Sunday the 25th.
Babel, a slightly better film than Little Miss Sunshine only failed to be eclipsed by the "little comedy that could" when it trumped The Departed to win Best Motion Picture - Drama at the Golden Globe awards. However, it has managed to lose countless awards since then including WGA, PGA and DGA awards. However, it's subject matter seems far more of a fit in this strange year lacking in front-runners and may still take the top prize at this year's awards.
79th Academy Awards: Precursor Awards79th Academy Awards: Precursor Tallies
-Wesley Lovell (February 12, 2007)
Online Film & Television Association Announce Awards
The Online Film & Television Association announced its 11th Annual winners today. Marking the first time in OFTA history, the Best Picture winner did not match up with any other precursor, giving its award to Children of Men. Though Men took the top prize, it came in second in the overall victory tabulation to top nominee Dreamgirls.
Other top winners matched up perfectly with many predictions for this year's awards. This year will see the OFTA fail to match Best Picture winners with the Academy for the fifth time. This is only the second time that this group has selected a film as Best Picture that wasn't also nominated by the Academy (the previous entry was Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind two years ago).
For a full list of winners, check out the link below.
OFTA: Online Film & Television Association79th Academy Awards: Precursor Awards
79th Academy Awards: Precursor Tallies
-Wesley Lovell (February 11, 2007)
2006 Year in Review
I won't ruin the surprise of what film tops my list of the top of 2006. You'll have to read the article at the link below. Fourteen films scored three-and-a-half stars or better, ten of which made the final ten. Take a look at my updated article below. Within the article are links to each of the films within said list, which have all been posted today.
Articles: 2006 Top Ten Films-Wesley Lovell (February 7, 2007)
Directors Guild of America
The DGA finally recognized Martin Scorsese as Best Director this year for his work on The Departed. This ends much speculation that the DGA award might go elsewhere as it has in the past and helps cement Marty's Oscar chances. What it doesn't do is help us narrow down the selection of the eventual Best Picture winner. That remains anyone's guess at this point.
Little Miss Sunshine, Babel and The Departed all seem seem like such strong contenders that split votes could result in either Letters from Iwo Jima or The Queen winning the top prize. This remains an open race that perhaps the Writers Guild can shine a light on the proceedings.
79th Academy Awards: Precursor Awards79th Academy Awards: Precursor Tallies
-Wesley Lovell (February 3, 2007)
Presenter Announcements Begin
Over the coming weeks, leading up to the 79th Academy Awards on February 25, the producers of the televised ceremony will unveil the presenters they have locked into appearing.
Today's announcement features Supporting Actor winner George Clooney who will likely present, per tradition, Supporting Actress this year. Also announced were Cameron Diaz, Eva Green and Hugh Jackman.
As time goes on, we'll see if any of the winners of the top categories last year will be back. Watch for announcements of Reese Witherspoon, Philip Seymour Hoffman, Rachel Weisz and maybe, though not necessarily likely, Ang Lee.
Another tradition is the song performances. This year, we could see Jennifer Hudson, Beyoncé Knowles, Eddie Murphy, Melissa Etheridge and Randy Newman as performers. These have traditionally been announced together, so we may have to wait a few weeks for them to get commitments from everyone. Note that reports I've read say Hudson is confirmed already to present, but we'll wait for official Academy press releases to set that in stone.
While I won't be updating this section every time a presenter is announced, keep a look out at the link below and in the menu on the left for the updates. Generally these announcements come once a day and generally in the afternoon. However, this early in the game, they may be slow in coming but expect the announcements to be more frequent as we get closer to the 25th.
79th Academy Awards: Oscar Ceremony-Wesley Lovell (February 2, 2007)
Harry Potter Release Date
J.K. Rowling and Scholastic have announced the release date of the final Harry Potter novel Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows. Below is a link to Amazon.com's pre-order of both the standard and deluxe editions of the book. I highly recommend purchasing the book through this link below.
-Wesley Lovell (February 2, 2007)
Screen Actors Guild Awards
With the 13th Annual Screen Actors Guild Awards now completed, we have a virtually stone-set group of acting front-runners and an unusually close Best Picture race. While Little Miss Sunshine is as likely to be the next The Full Monty, there's something to be said for its dominance of this year's awards season. WIthout a director nomination, LMS could become the first film since Driving Miss Daisy and only the fourth film in Academy history to win the Best Picture award without a corresponding nod.
That said, Babel and The Departed took a hit here without a single award, being shut out by Oscar also-ran Dreamgirls. No matter which film wins Best Picture, we may have the lowest overall awards total of any film since Grand Hotel in 1932 when there were only 12 categories. If the Directors Guild of America goes predictably for Martin Scorsese then it may well be anyone's guess. If by some bizarre twist of fate Scorsese loses again and Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris win, then Little Miss Sunshine can't lose...but there will be a LOT of venom for the DGA from critics and cineastes alike.
79th Academy Awards: Precursor Awards-Wesley Lovell (January 28, 2007)
79th Annual Academy Awards Nominations
The nominations are IN! And boy what a load of surprises!
Normally, the shocks wouldn't be the omissions but the surprise inclusions over notably weaker competition. This year, however, the biggest shock of them all was the exclusion of Dreamgirls for Best Picture. It managed to still top the nomination count with 8 but it's only top nominations were for Jennifer Hudson and Eddie Murphy.
There are three factors that typically impact the Best Picture winner. Most nominations, a Best Director nomination and a Best Editing nomination. The latter two factors only favor Babel and The Departed. Since neithe topped the actual nomination count, we see that Babel leads the count among Best Picture nominees, which puts it in the lead for the Oscar. The Departed still seems solid for Best Director, but its dismal nomination count (5 with Leonardo DiCaprio getting a nod for Blood Diamond instead and no Jack Nicholson), may spell trouble for the film. Little Miss Sunshine is hindered with only four nods and no mentions for Director or Editing. The Queen and Letters from Iwo Jima are in decent standing having picked up Director nods themselves.
Posted below, find my list of nominations and my list of predictions for the upcoming awards. Much could change after this weekend's Screen Actors Guild awards, so stay tuned as we see how the DGA also impacts the race.
79th Academy Awards: Oscar Guy's Predictions79th Academy Awards: Academy Award Nominations
-Wesley Lovell (January 23, 2007)
Oscar Morning Preparation
While most regular people will be reading the nominations after they are announced, the rest of us will be getting up early and watching the presentation. And with the experience of past nominations announcements under our belt, we can use these nominations to help us predict the rest of the nominations to a minor extent. Below is a category by category analysis of how to see nominations coming as they are announced and what to expect.
Supporting Actor: This category should start off with Alan Arkin for Little Miss Sunshine. If Ben Affleck is the first name, then LMS won't do as well as expected. If Adam Beach is the first name, Flags of Our Fathers should be among the Best Picture nominees. Jackie Earle Haley is the next name on the list. If his is first, then be prepared for either Michael Sheen, Brad Pitt or Mark Wahlberg as nominees. If Wahlberg gets nominated, The Departed might just top the nomination count, but unlikely. After Haley should be Djimon Hounsou followed by Eddie Murphy and Jack Nicholson. If Nicholson doesn't make the cut, Wahlberg might. An early surprise could be Alec Baldwin as the first name on the list for The Departed which would make for an interesting morning. If Eddie Murphy doesn't make it, it seems unlikely that Bill Condon will make the Best Director cut and the film could be hindered.
Supporting Actress: The second category announced is this category. Look for three Bs to be announced. Adriana Barraza should be first followed by Cate Blanchett and then Abigail Breslin (if Little Miss Sunshine does incredibly well). Be wary of a fourth B, Emily Blunt, sneaking into the race. Following the aforementioned three should be Jennifer Hudson and then Rinko Kikuchi. Catherine O'Hara's only chance is if Breslin isn't one of the first three and Emily Blunt isn't among the nominees. Shareeka Epps could also sneak in preventing O'Hara's nomination. If Anika Noni Rose gets a nomination for Dreamgirls, the likelihood of another tie of the 12-nom record becomes extremely high and a breaking of that record even more so.
Actor: This category should see the second fewest number of surprises of the morning. If Sacha Baron Cohen is to get a nod, he'll be the first name on the list. Otherwise, expect Leonardo DiCaprio to be the first name. The question will be whether for The Departed or Blood Diamond. Matt Damon would also need to be one of the first two names to be a surprise nominee. Ryan Gosling should be second. If there are two names already announced prior to Peter O'Toole, then he might be left off entirely. O'Toole should be the third name followed by Will Smith. If O'Toole is the fourth name on the list, Will Smith will be the nominee left off in favor of the almost certainly last name: Forest Whitaker. Ken Watanbe could also take Smith's fourth-name position and that would indicate that Letters from Iwo Jima will be among the Best Picture nominees.
Actress: There is no question what this category will look like. The names announced will be Penelope Cruz, Judi Dench, Helen Mirren, Meryl Streep and Kate Winslet. If Cruz isn't first and Dench is, the second name could be Beyonce Knowles. If her's isn't second and Mirren's is, Naomi Watts could be the farthest left field inclusion we've seen in some time.
Director: Though we recognize directors names as much as we do film, this category is presented unusually. It is alphabetized by film name, not by director's name. That means Babel should be first. This should be followed by The Departed, Dreamgirls, Little Miss Sunshine and The Queen. If Babel is not there, Letters from Iwo Jima could be the third listed name or United 93 could be the last. If Babel, The Departed and Dreamgirls are the first three names and Letters from Iwo Jima is the fourth, then the fifth should be The Queen. If Dreamgirls isn't third, Letters could be third and if it's not, then United 93 would be last.
Original Screenplay: Babel should be the first on this list. Little Miss Sunshine should follow it. The rest would then be The Queen, United 93 and then Volver. The latter of these two could easily be replaced by Stranger Than Fiction, For Your Consideration or Pan's Labyrinth.
Adapted Screenplay: Children of Men leading off this list would indicate the film might end up a Best Picture nominee. This would be helped more if he also ended up a Best Director nominee announced earlier. The three Ds should be next The Departed, The Devil Wears Prada and Dreamgirls. The last on the list should be Little Children. If Dreamgirls stumbles, it will be here and could be replaced by Notes on a Scandal or Thank You for Smoking. If Borat was a nominee for Best Actor, then it could also appear as the first screenplay listed ou in this category.
Foreign Language Film: With only 9 films to choose form, it should be easily, though that branch of the Academy has been known to muck things up with their choices. The order should be Days of Glory, The Lives of Others, Pan's Labyrinth, Volver and then Water. If Days of Glory isn't the first name on the list, that name could be either Avenue Montaigne or Black Book.
Animated Film: With the question of eligibility on Arthur and the Invisibles, this category could only fit three nominees. If Happy Feet is the second name listed afte Cars, then the category contains only three names. If Flushed Away is second, either Happy Feet or Monster House didn't make the final cut of three or there will be five films. If Happy Feet is third, then Monster House and Over the Hedge should follow. Ice Age getting a nod would be either second or third in the list knocking out either Flushed Away or Over the Hedge. If you're actually watching the nominees, you'll know for a fact that there are only three nominees if, because they use five TV screens to show the nominees, they start at the top left instead of the bottom left.
Picture: This category should lead off with Babel. If it's not there and neither is Bobby, then Children of Men would most likely be the first nominee listed. If The Departed is, then either Letters from Iwo Jima or United 93 may have snuck in. Dreamgirls should follow The Departed. After that, it will either be Letters from Iwo Jima or Little Miss Sunshine. If Letters isn't there, United 93 could be the last name announced. The Queen should follow as the last name or, if not last, United 93 would be last.
It's tough to go through all the possibilities in such a volatile year, but with the above, you should be able to expect certain things just by watching. Below, you will also find the Nominations page which currently features a full alphabetical list of all of the nominees from my Hopefuls page. You're welcome to print this out and follow along.
79th Academy Awards: Academy Award Nominations-Wesley Lovell (January 22, 2007)
The Oscar Guy Makes His Final Predictions
Well, tomorrow is the big morning. The 79th Annual Academy Award nominations will be announced. Joining Academy President Sid Ganis will be Best Actress Oscar nominee Salma Hayek. They will announce the nominations in Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Actor, Actress, Original Screenplay, Adapted Screenplay, Director, Foreign Language Film, Animated Film and Best Picture categories at approximately 5:35am (Pacific).
Likely to top the nominations list will be Dreamgirls, which I'm predicting to carry away at least 11 nominations. In the link below, you'll find the rest of my predictions for this year's awards. Most of the top categories seem pretty set with the most surprises due in the Picture and Directing categories. This is due to the abbreviated awards season. We'll hope for some very interesting shocks but don't hold your breath for them. The tech categories seem most fluid this year, likely to carry a number of smaller films.
Keep posted right here when I post the nominees as they become available tomorrow morning. I'll try to have the on-air nominations posted immediately after the announcement and then we'll have the typical wait for the rest to come trickling in. If I have some time later today (and internet is restored at home), I will do my best to create an Oscar Morning guide so you can keep tally as the nominations are announced.
79th Academy Awards: 2006 Oscar Nomination Predictions-Wesley Lovell (January 22, 2007)
Producers Guild, Online Film & Television Association and Personal Update
Before starting today's update with the PGA winners and Online Film & Television Association nominees, let me fill you in on my personal struggles to find warmth. At approximately 8:00am, our power was finally restored. That's after almost exactly 150 hours without service. It was nice to have a warm home to go to, so I'll enjoy it tonight (and get some laundry and clean clothes together for tomorrow). Thanks for everyone who had me in their thoughts during this rather trying time and special thanks to Peter P. and Mark B. for their contributions. Now, on with the show!
Last night, the Producers Guild of America made a left field decision and honored the Sundance hit Little Miss Sunshine as the best film of the year. It's quite obvious that they chose the film that made the biggest return on the dollar, though The Departed or Dreamgirls would have sufficed for that choice. The PGA has thus thrown a huge wrench into the prognostications race. Suffice it to say, this decision won't have much impact on nominations, but could hvae a huge impact on the Oscar winner if SAG also goes LMS for Best Ensemble.
The PGA also chose Cars as Best Animated Film, which suggests that Happy Feet might not be the surefire winner at the Oscars as everyone was expected. The film came on strong but is regularly being eclipsed by Cars at many year-end awards.
Topping the Online Film & Television Associaiton nominations count was the musical Dreamgirls. Musicals, because of their stellar technicals, often get more nominations than any other film. Thus, it's no surprise that the movie topped the nomination count with 21 mentions, tying it for the lead with Moulin Rouge and Chicago. While these other three films saw most of their nods in the Adapted Song category, Dreamgirls received five mentions in both categories, three in Original Song and two in Adapted Song. Joining the film as a Best Picture nominee were Children of Men, The Departed, The Queen and United 93.
For a full list of nominees, visit their website linked below.
I'll be back on Monday after I've gotten back into my home, settled and got my internet back up (our satellite service was not interrupted, oddly enough), I will be marking up my FINAL Oscar Predictions. Those will be posted sometime tomorrow. Until then, get out there and watch all those potential Oscar nominees so you can get as pissed off as everyone else on the UAADB at tomorrow's announcements.
OFTA: Online Film & Television Association79th Academy Awards: Precursor Awards
79th Academy Awards: Precursor Tallies
-Wesley Lovell (January 21, 2007)
Best Picture History Finale
After fiften long weeks of 5-review updates, it is time to bring our Best Picture retrospective to a close. It's been an enlightening experience and I'm glad I've finally been able to commit these films to memory.
At the link below, you'll find a full list of all 78 films that have won Best Picture. I have ranked them from best to worst. Of course we all have our differences of opinion, but this is how I see it. Let me also go over the ten best and ten worst here in this update.
Up until last week, the top film of each period that I reviewed was the featured picture for the update. Last week, knowing I would need a new pic this week, I decided to shake things up and make you think Titanic was my top film. It is not. It is one of my favorites, ranking in the top 20 but it was not the top Best Picture winner of all time.
That distinction goes to Schindler's List. Many would cite this film only as one of the top 10 but after having seen them all, and while a number of the other top five films are very close in terms of quality, I feel that Steven Spielberg's masterpiece is the best of the ones I've seen. It blends excellent performances, crisp black-and-white photography, an emotionally charged story and covers one of the most significant events in world history. It blends every aspect of great filmmaking into a seemless and touching motion picture.
Coming in second and third are two films that form the beginning of an epic trilogy. The Godfather and The Godfather, Part II are almost one film. They each feature terrific performances and design work but also tell a passionate story about the strength and bond of family, even if they aren't blood related. The Godfather ranks just about its sequel in terms of quality, but both are worthy additions to the top 5.
Casablanca earns the distinction of the fourth best Oscar winning Best Picture ever. It is a perfect example of brilliant screenwriting. While its quotes are among the most memorable, they each fit seemlessly into a film that redefined how romantic stories could be told.
Fifth place went to All Quiet on the Western Front, one of the first films to look at war from the enemy's perspective. Adapted from a novel about the horrors of war and the propoganda that suckered many German soldiers into the war, it is one of the most sympathetic war films ever commited to celluloid.
The Bette Davis comedy All About Eve ranks sixth for its amazing performances and entertaining story. Everything fits perfectly together in this Joseph L. Mankiewicz classic about the bitter rivalry between an up-and-coming starlet who backstabs her way to success. The Lost Weekend tackled the difficult subject of alcoholism whem message films weren't necessarily wanted. Coming as it did at the end of World War II, the Academy showed significant clarity in selecting the small film that centers around only one character and was wholly unrelated to the war.
Finding its way to the 7th position is the Marlon Brando dockside drama On the Waterfront. Celebrating the courageousness of its lead to stand up against the mobsters who ran the docks, Elia Kazan was at his most interesting with this film. Following Waterfront on my list is one of the most recent classics of Academy history. Recognized for its exciting climax to the epic Lord of the Rings trilogy, The Return of the King continued the series' tradition of outstanding performances, glorious technicals and engaging storytelling. Some might think me crazy for including it so high after so recent a release, but I firmly believe the placement justified.
Rounding out the top ten is Frank Capra's shrewdly comical It Happened One Night. Though Capra has been accused of watering down his stories to make them more accessible to the general public, his early films allowed the audience to think along with its humor. Clark Gable and Claudette Colbert are wonderful in this little road trip pic.
To look back at the worst Best Picture winners in history, it's important to begin at the end. Above, I began with the best and worked my way to the bottom of the top ten. Now, I'm starting at the bottom of the worst ten and making my way towards the worst film ever to win Best Picture.
Kicking things off at number 69 is the overlong The Great Ziegfeld. Though the musical numbers are gorgeously designed and the story is interesting, there is a sort of hollowness to the production and the 2 hours of production numbers, that are virtually tangential to the story, make for a substantial waste of time.
Gladiator falls into the 70th position based on its virtual lack of originality. A near remake of the slightly superior Ben-Hur, this Russell Crowe period drama lacks little in the production department, but suffers from rudimentary plotting and less-than-impressive performances. The big upset of last year ranks as the 71st best (or 8th worst) Best Picture winner in history. It is self-important, features relatively weak performances and makes vocal prejudice seem more prevalent than it is.
The westward expansion pic Cimarron takes a lengthy look at the life of a family moving into the Oklahoma territory after the United States opened it for expansion. There isn't an outstanding performance in the film and it feels more like one of the low quality silent films that had virtually ceased production two years earlier.
Capping the list of the first five worst Best Picture winners is the British import Tom Jones. The film is terrible to look at and is hardly funny. It is a blend between Monty Python style comedy and period drama. The result is a barely watchable pseudo-sexual farce.
The Broadway Melody was the first Talkie to win Best Picture and also the first musical. Its glimpse at the backstage lives of two Broadway-bound Vaudevillian dancers refuses to produce good performances or an original story. Coming in right below it at number 75 on the list of Best Picture winners is the big-top production The Greatest Show on Earth. The film is simply an advertisement for the Ringling Bros.-Barnum & Bailey Circus. Charlton Heston has seldom been worse. The Cecil B. DeMille vanity production's saving grace is the understated performance of James Stewart.
2001's dismal character drama A Beautiful Mind is so glaringly pretentious that it makes Crash look like a masterpiece. Ron Howard's only Best Picture winner is an exercise in simplicity. The story of a man who hears voices is turned into a tale of a man who sees people and secretly works for the CIA.
The penultimate film on the Worst Ten list of Oscar-winning Best Pictures is the haphazard Cavalcade. A film that takes one family through some of British history's most significant events never embraces its audience and lets its audience develop a sense of compassion for its characters. There are some good performances, but when you don't care much about the people, that fact doesn't matter.
And the worst Best Picture winner in Academy history is: Braveheart. A colossal and violent waste of time, this film is bereft of talent, revises history, panders to director Mel Gibson's inflated ego and fails to reward its audience with anything but blood and guts. Braveheart's story of revenge has been told many times and virtually all of them have been better. Were it not for the Academy's love of actors-turned-directors, this film might have seen its trophy go to any one of a number of best pictures.
There you have it. The best and worst Best Picture winners in history. I hope you've all enjoyed taking this trip down memory lane with me and I hope to do more such retrospectives in the future. In two weeks, you can expect to receive my official list of top ten films of 2006 as well as an explosively large update of reviews from said films.
Please note that the previous fifteen weeks' update information is located on the Reviews page to keep the front page less cluttered as Oscar season looms.
Reviews: The Best Oscar-Winning Best Pictures-Wesley Lovell (January 20, 2007)
Site Update and Other Information
The outage continues. I am still without power and we've passed the one week mark (this morning at 2am). There were crews in the area today, but I don't know if they'll get us up today or tomorrow. Hopefully today but I'm not going to hold my breath in anticipation.
I have updated the links below to include the Golden Globe winners as well as the Broadcast Film Criticsc winners, the Cinema Audio Society nominees and the Art Directors Guild nominees. I am not updating my hopefuls list at this time. I anticipate doing that sometime monday to create my "final" predictions.
The Producers Guild is supposed to announce their winner this evening, so we'll see a frontrunner in the Best Picture race likely emerge. Tomorrow the Online Film & Television Association will announce its 11th Annual Film nominees. Tuesday, of course, is Oscar Nominations Morning. Come hell or high water, I will watch the announcement live on E! and immediately post the nominees as I get them in (after all the categories are announced, of course). We'll then begin our much ballyhooed discussion of the nominees on the message board.
I will also hopefully post the update I was intending to post this past Tuesday later today. Stay tuned.
79th Academy Awards: Precursor Awards79th Academy Awards: Precursor Tallies
-Wesley Lovell (January 20, 2007)
Golden Globe Awards
I have managed to find internet access and TV access, so it's time to prep for the Golden Globes. Find below the updated list, which when I get my own internet access back, will be moved to the precursor section. I'll update the below just as quickly as possible as the winners are announcements.
79th Academy Awards: Precursor Awards79th Academy Awards: Precursor Tallies
-Wesley Lovell (January 15, 2007)
Important News About The Oscar Guy
For anyone who hasn't watched the news and don't know where I live, or for those who haven't ready my message board, you may not be aware of the situation I am currently in. This has been one of the worst weekends ever for me and I'm really not sure when it's all going to end. Let me explain:
Friday evening, I was watching TV and working on my computer as usual. An ice storm was coming through this area but we were doing fine. About 2:00am, the power went out. It still has not come back on.
So I've been without power in sub-freezing temperatures for more than 72 hours now and I'm not sure when it's coming back on. Our area has been declared a disaster area and our governor has sent in National Guard Troops. 90% of the city of Springfield, MO is without power. They are slowly restoring said power, but this causes a great of problems in terms of trying to update this site.
Matters were made worse on Saturday when my non-bank debit card was denied at Wal-Mart while I was trying to buy food, which I was out of. Thankfully I had a small amount of money in pocket to cover it but needless to say, I was not happy. I called H&R Block who had provided the card and they had found suspicious activity (a charge from Bed, Bad & Beyond was there and I haven't purchased from that outlet in more than 2 years). So they had suspended the card and have told me that they have to re-issue a card, which means I don't have access to ANY of my money for 7 to 10 days.
So, here I am without access to money and stuck in a house that has no heat or electricity (warm showers are only a small perk thanks to a wonderful gas water heater). I've been spending most of days in places that have power and occasionally internet access. That's why you're seeing an update from me today.
I won't ever beg for money but if you feel you want to make a donation, the paypal button to the left will allow you to use a credit card or paypal account to send money. I have a different PayPal debit card that I can use to access those funds.
I have found one hope so far of being able to watch tonight's Golden Globe Awards...unless I can find a live video feed somewhere online. They may also have inet, so I may be able to update the website with the winners as they come in. If for some reason, I cannot, do not worry. My message board posters will update those winners as they are announced in the Precursor forum. If I'm able to update, I will be extremely happy but otherwise, I hope to at least have access to see the winners instead of having to wait until the morning. So, if you have any information on inet feeds of the Golden Globes or any other information that would help me, please post it in the Miscellaneous Off-Topic forum under the topic Ice Storm. Thanks so much for your patience and dedication in this frustrating period. By the time temperatures return to above freezing on Thursday, we should have power again and I'll be back to my regular updates, so should have no problem posting next Tuesday's Oscar nominations.
-Wesley Lovell (January 15, 2007)
More Precursor Awards
As Oscar Nomination morning approaches in less than two weeks, the precursors are coming out of the woodworks. While we've already got the British Academy Award nominations and the American Cinema Editors nominations (as listed below), we also expect the USC Scripter award winners sometime today and the Broadcast Film Critics Awards this evening.
The American CInema Editors announced their Eddie Awards nominees today which typically include four of the five Oscar nominees. Only twice since the group stopped nominating only three films has the group chosen only three of the Oscar nominees.
Because they've been so inaccurate for years, the British Academy of Film & Television Arts isn't the best of precursors. I've updated that information below, but I won't try to analyze it at this time.
Since my Hopefuls currently already list the four films that I think will carry over nominations this year, I have not made any changes as Letters from Iwo Jima still seems a safe bet.
79th Academy Awards: Hopefuls79th Academy Awards: Precursor Awards
-Wesley Lovell (January 12, 2007)
Precursor Award Day
Updated 2:24pm: Both ASC and WGA have now announced and are updated below.
With the ASC being one of the more accurate precursors of late, you can generally expect at least three and usually four, sometimes five of the nominees to take a berth at the Oscars. My updated predictions for this category are on the Hopefuls page below.
The Writers Guild of America has varying levels of success as do most guilds. One can say that Academy often has different tastes than the individually larger guilds. Through 2000, the WGA Original Screenplay nominees matched up four out of five nominees typically. Since then, three and only three nominees have carried over to the Oscars. With a few exceptions in the last ten years, four nominees from the WGA's Adapted Screenplay corresponded at the Oscars.
Original Post: It's a big day in precursor world. Specifically, we have two known precursor announcements and a surprise one. Let's start off with the surprise, since the other two haven't been announced yet.
The Costume Designers Guild announced its 15 nominees for motion picture costuming. Their nominations are hardly the accurate precursor, with a dismal prediction success rate. Over the last three years, with the increase in number of categories, they have been able to predict three of the five eventual Costume Design nominees.
You'll find a list of these nominees at the link below. It appears with this list, they may get more than three right this year, but look only at the Period set as the Academy tends to ignore present day-set works and fantasy productions.
Also on the radar for today are the American Society of Cinematographers, who were supposed to announce Monday, and the Writers Guild of America. Both groups are better known for their predictive capabilities. We'll have to see how that goes but look for those announcements as soon as I am able to post them at the link below. Once these are all updated, I'll be altering my predictions in the Writing, Cinematography and Costume Design categories.
79th Academy Awards: Hopefuls79th Academy Awards: Precursor Awards
-Wesley Lovell (January 11, 2007)
Makeup Finalists Announced
The Academy announced today the Makeup award finalists. The seven films, which have now been updated under the Hopefuls section linked below.
79th Academy Awards: Hopefuls-Wesley Lovell (January 9, 2007)
Directors Guld of America Nominations
The nominations are announced and the suspenes over this year's Best Picture and Best Director nominees may have ended.
This is the first time since the PGA nominated films in 1997 that the DGA and PGA have matched up 100%. At that time, Amistad failed to pick up a Best Picture nomination in favor of The Full Monty. With this year's crowd-pleaser already included in the list (Little Miss Sunshine) there is little that the Academy would likely do to change the nominees, except a last-minute push for Alfonso Cuaron's children of men.
In the nine years DGA and PGA have competed, of the thirty-three films that were on both guilds' lists, only three did not take home Oscar nominations for Best Picture. Almost Famous, Being John Malkovich and the aforementioned Amistad.
It looks like we might be seeing both the Best Picture slate and the Best Director slate. If directors couldn't find their way to nominate veterans Paul Greengrass or Clint Eastwood, it is unlikely the Academy will do so. This applies more to the former, than the latter. Eastwood could still pull off a nomination at the expense of Dayton and Faris but it's going to be a tough day to predict which of the five will be upset on Oscar morning. I have updated below my predictions for Best Director as my Best Picture slate is not impacted by this announcement.
79th Academy Awards: Hopefuls79th Academy Awards: Precursor Awards
79th Academy Awards: Precursor Tallies
-Wesley Lovell (January 9, 2007)
Directors Guild of America Nominations
The nominations are announced and the suspenes over this year's Best Picture and Best Director nominees may have ended.
This is the first time since the PGA nominated films in 1997 that the DGA and PGA have matched up 100%. At that time, Amistad failed to pick up a Best Picture nomination in favor of The Full Monty. With this year's crowd-pleaser already included in the list (Little Miss Sunshine) there is little that the Academy would likely do to change the nominees, except a last-minute push for Alfonso Cuaron's children of men.
In the nine years DGA and PGA have competed, of the thirty-three films that were on both guilds' lists, only three did not take home Oscar nominations for Best Picture. Almost Famous, Being John Malkovich and the aforementioned Amistad.
It looks like we might be seeing both the Best Picture slate and the Best Director slate. If directors couldn't find their way to nominate veterans Paul Greengrass or Clint Eastwood, it is unlikely the Academy will do so. This applies more to the former, than the latter. Eastwood could still pull off a nomination at the expense of Dayton and Faris but it's going to be a tough day to predict which of the five will be upset on Oscar morning. I have updated below my predictions for Best Director as my Best Picture slate is not impacted by this announcement.
79th Academy Awards: Hopefuls79th Academy Awards: Precursor Awards
79th Academy Awards: Precursor Tallies
-Wesley Lovell (January 9, 2007)
Screen Actors Guild Nominations
With the announcement of the Screen Actors Guild nominations, some big things may change, though probably very little.
What is missing: Jack Nicholson in The Departed, Sacha Baron Cohen in Borat, Michael Sheen in The Queen, Brad Pitt in Babel, Catherine O'Hara in For Your Consideration, the casts of The Queen, Clint Eastwood's films and United 93.
In the ensemble race, we look at the past and see that generally only one or two films are left out of the SAG ensemble list as Best Picture nominees. Only 2000 and 1995 saw three films miss the final ballot. Only one year have all three films matched up. We can probably safely assume that Bobby will be missing on Oscar morning. With this list matching up nearly perfectly with the Producers Guild, we could very well see The Queen take Bobby's place and thus have our final five. But watch out for Little Miss Sunshine. That film could also be ignored in favor of one of Clint's films or United 93.
The Best Actress slate matches up 100% with all of the other prognostications out there, so we're probably looking at the final five. In recent years, SAG has been increasingly predictive of this category, which means I don't think we have any suspense here.
A little more fluidity exists in the Best Actor category. Sacha Baron Cohen NEEDED a nomination here to secure an Oscar nod. That his peers refused to recognize him may spell disaster, but he's still hanging on by a thread. Dicaprio poses the biggest problem. Will he get the Oscar nod for The Departed or Blood Diamond? SAG ballots listed him as Supporting Actor but Oscar ballots do not list lead/support for films, so they can go either direction. The rule is an actor cannot be nominated twice in a single category. Whichever role receives the most votes first will receive the nomination. If it's for The Departed, he'll be a single nominee. If it's for Blood Diamond, we could see a double nomination. The other three nominees, O'Toole, Whitaker and Smith seem assured.
Supporting Actor is shaping up to be another exciting race for nomination this year. Less consistent at the SAG compared to the Oscars, this category could see a number of upsets. It's safe to assume that Jackie Earle Haley, Djimon Hounsou and Eddie Murphy will get nominations. Alan Arkin moves into a more tenable position with his SAG and GG recognition. That leaves the Dicaprio slot. See my discussion of Best Actor for info on whether he can be a double nominee. As a potential replacement, Jack Nicholson is the most likely to fill the slot because of his veteran status but watch out for Michael Sheen in The Queen whose chances were almost dashed with this announcement and Mark Wahlberg who could come out of nowhere like Ethan Hawke in 2001.
What's interesting about Supporting Actress is that the original slate of solid contenders shifts dramatically with the SAG nominations. Catherine O'Hara's chances are dwindling even further with her snub. A journeyman actor, O'Hara had the best shot of a nod with SAG and that she didn't get it speaks volumes about her chances. Hudson, Blanchett and the Babel girls Kikichi and Barraza seem pretty solid now with their nominations here. That leaves plenty of options for the fifth slot. While Abigail Breslin benefited a great deal from this nod, will Oscar follow suit? It seems likely considering how often in the past the Academy has nominated such young actresses in this category. The problem is, many may see her as a lead and that could spell a Keisha Castle-Hughes discussion. Castle-Hughes got into the Best Actress race surprisingly, Breslin would have no chance. So if the preponderance of voters put her in lead, she could be left out here for O'Hara or any number of surprise fifth-wheels.
While some waters are getting murky, others are becoming quite clear. With the multiple guild awards these past two days, I've updated my hopefuls list based on this information. Check it out below. Note that the only categories seeing changes are Best Picture Best Animated Feature and the acting categories. Other changes wait for the respective guild awards.
79th Academy Awards: Hopefuls79th Academy Awards: Precursor Awards
-Wesley Lovell (January 4, 2007)
Producers Guild Nominations
The first major guild award out of the gate, the Producers Guild of America pulls another fast one on all of us by announcing their nominations a day ahead of their original schedule. They did this last year as well.
Tomorrow's the Screen Actors Guild announcement, but until then, the link below contains the major nominees from the PGA.
After some disappointments in the critics awards, Dreamgirls ends up among the five films the PGA has deemed the best of the year. Notable omissions: Letters from Iwo Jima, United 93 and Flags of Our Fathers.
79th Academy Awards: Precursor Awards-Wesley Lovell (January 3, 2007)
New Precursor Awards and Nominations
Two new precursors have come down the pipe. The Florida Film Critics announced their winners just prior to the new year and the Online Film Critics Society has selected its nominees just after the new year.
Florida went crazy for The Departed naming it for Best Picture, Best Director and Best Screenplay. They continued the love for Forest Whitaker and Helen Mirren and pushed Cate Blanchett towards the lead of the supporting actress field this year.
The Online Film Critics Society made a splash with an eclectic array of nominees for Best Picture with only three films that are generally talked about as Best Picture contenders, Babel, The Departed and United 93. Not only were Flags of Our Fathers and Letters from Iwo Jima absent from the best picture race, they received no other mention. Dreamgirls only received attention in three categories: Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress and Breakthrough Performer. Children of Men and Pan's Labyrinth received a large amount of attention from the OFCS, making their list quite a bit more original than any of the others.
Lack of originality, however, was abound in the acting categories with nary an unusual or non-contending performance making an appearance.
NEXT UP: Producers Guild of America and Screen Actors Guild on Thursday, January 5.
79th Academy Awards: Precursor Awards79th Academy Awards: Precursor Tallies
-Wesley Lovell (January 2, 2007)