Archive Created

To consolidate data, I am creating this archive of posts made to my front page for the entire year 2006.

-Wesley Lovell (January 30, 2007)

Important Dates and New Critics Results

Recent announcements from the Chicago Film Critics and the Oklahoma Film Critics Circle don't improve our rather murky forecast. This year has been slightly less predictable than years past. Though some films like The Departed and Dreamgirls seem firmly entrenched in the Best Picture race, several other films seem destined for nominations but only three spots remain. Letters from Iwo Jima, Babel, Little Miss Sunshine, United 93 and other films all want those spots but only three will get them.

Chicago Film Critics aren't known for accuracy, though they were the only organization to recognize Crash largely based on the influence of Roger Ebert who adored the film. This year, Ebert's out of the picture, but they are faling back on their critics heavy roots and gone for legendary filmmaker Martin Scorsese hoping to force the Academy into recognizing the director for a solid effort and return to form.

The Oklahoma Film Critics Circle stirred up the waters with a pick of United 93, one of many critics groups honoring the 9/11 film that has pleased audiences and critics. Could this be this year's spoiler? It would be Hollywood's opportunity to honor the sacrifice of those who lost their lives on 9/11 and would represent a return to form for the Academy. Other films might fit their recent direction better, but this could be an interesting, down-to-the-wire year.

Now, let's take a look at what's coming up. Some important and not-so-important organizations will be announcing awards and nominations in the early days of 2007. Starting things off on January 1st is the Online Film Critics Society. Their track record isn't very impactful, but they tend to have a different view on filmmaking than most print critics. Their choice might give us a better look at how critics across the board are feeling as opposed to the more localized groups.

On Thursday the fourth, both the Producers Guild of America and the Screen Actors Guild announce nominations. These nods are going to be terrific for helping prognosticators make their final predictions. Although these orgs feature plenty of non-Academy members, they tend to share a lot of the same thought processes when selecting nominations.

The following week starts off on Monday with the American Society of Cinematographers announcing their nominations along with the Online Film Critics Society who will announce their winners. The incredibly important Directors Guild announce nods on Tuesday followed by the slightly lesser important Writers Guild nominations. Then, capping off the week is a huge day on Thursday with the American Cinema Editors nomination announcement and the Broadcast Film Critics Awards.

The Golden Globe Awards follow on Monday the 15th. Then, as the week progresses, the Art Directors Guild and Cinema Audio Society announce nominees on Thursday. Then on Saturday the Producers Guild of America announce their winner. The final announcement prior to the Academy Awads nominations on Tuesday morning January 23 comes on Sunday when the Online FIlm & Television Association announce their choices for the best of the year.

That's everything within the next 25 days. That's not much time to take everything in before the nominations, but we'll all do our very best.

79th Academy Awards: Precursor Awards
79th Academy Awards: Precursor Tallies

-Wesley Lovell (December 29, 2006)

Best Picture History

Looking at this update's films, it would be difficult not to see the more modern choices pale when propped up against such lofty and laudable films.

Starting off this period is the musical biopic Amadeus about the legendary composer. It features two outstanding performances and is undeniably enjoyable to watch. Even when morose, the film feels energetic and prescient.

The same cannot be said for Out of Africa. Meryl Streep's engaging performance aside, Africa is somewhat of a chore to sit through featuring several unimportant characters given too much screen time in this lush and gorgeous, though non-dynamic film.

The final film from the 1980s this week is a terrific war film called Platoon. Even though the Vietname War had been over for nearly a decade, the film still feels every bit as important as it might have had it been made in the early seventies. It helps prop up the 1980s as a surprisingly strong decade of Best Picture winners, soon to be bolstered by next week's films.

Even with Out of Africa's problems, the film is a significant improvement over the two that round out this update. Gladiator is the better of the two remaining films. Russell Crowe does a good job in the film, though the picture is too much a rehash of the Biblical epic Ben-Hur for my tastes.

A Beautiful Mind does not have the luxury of having mimicry as a defense. It is not only an original screenplay but a relatively bad one. As screenwriter, Akiva Goldsman delivers a portrayal of an interesting person. Unfortunately, it's up to the actors to add any measure of depth to their roles for Goldsman has neglected them significantly. The film would stand as a slight appendix to a broader, more interesting topic that is left significantly unexplored.

Only three weeks to go. Next week I'll be looking at the years 1987 through 1989, 1998 and 1999. They are an interesting group of pictures and should make for an interesting comparison.

Please note that the previous twelve weeks' update information is located on the Reviews page to keep the front page less cluttered as Oscar season looms.

1984: Amadeus
1985: Out of Africa
1986: Platoon
2001: A Beautiful Mind
2000: Gladiator

-Wesley Lovell (December 26, 2006)

Major Precursors and Minor Hopefuls Update

I've been remiss in my duties this past week. Financial matters have kept me rather preoccupied, but that should change soon. However, with that change, frequent updates to the site will be slowed for a bit. Updates will only appear in the evenings (if the job I get is days) and won't have as much depth as I would otherwise like.

Below are updates to the Precursor Awards for this year, which include about a half dozen new critics groups and their prizes. Additionally, I have updated the associated tallies page.

After seeing Eragon on Monday, I have also found it necessary to immediately update my Hopefuls page to exclude it from a nomination and promote Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest to the presumptive front-runner position.

Thankfully, there are no more precursors anticipated until the New Year, so I won't likely update that information here. I will, however, continue to work on my Best Picture History updates. I've already gotten caught up enough to write reviews for the next couple of weeks and shouldn't have issues filling out that term. So, keep an eye out for our update next week. I also hope to start working on 2006 reviews again, getting the website up to date again and present my Top 10 of the year sometime after the new year.

79th Academy Awards: Precursor Awards
79th Academy Awards: Precursor Tallies
79th Academy Awards: Hopefuls

-Wesley Lovell (December 21, 2006)

Significant Hopefuls Update

After this week's major series of announcements, it's time for a significant update to my nomination predictions list.

Many of you may think the term Hopefuls represents my personal desires. Nothing could be further from the truth. While some of my personal favorites have made the lists, I try to focus on the most likely nominees and winners at these early stages. While my winners picks will henge on the actual nominations, totals and all precursors, including peer groups, they are not near as confident as the predictions for nominations themselves. The term Hopefuls is used in this case to represent who or what fim has the most hopes for an Oscar nomination.

This update features a number of films and performances that have lost all luster and been removed and others with renewed expectations. In the Best Picture category, little has changed except for the chances of Babel, which I believe could still get an Oscar nomination. The film is far more accessible than Inarritu's previous film 21 Grams which was virtually ignored by critics. Its popularity may help both Adriana Barraza (the emotional soul of the film) and Rinko Kikuchi to Oscar nominations.

Best Animated Film has seen a shift with critics prizes towards Happy Feet. Meanwhile the Best Director prize has shifted back to Martin Scorsese. From June through October, he was my Best Director pick. I believed he was going to win that long expected Oscar. Then the press and buzz for Dreamgirls reached a furor and I switche to Bill Condon. Now, with no prizes have yet gone to Condon, which was to be expected, the Golden Globes have left him out of their list of five. This is damaging since it means the likelihood of a Condon win has been dashed.

Best Actor seems less assured with Forest Whitaker's performance at early precursors, but Peter O'Toole still feels like a solid choice. The Academy has sentimental tendencies and this would likely be their final chance to recognize O'Toole after 7 previous nominations and no Oscars. Best Actress has solidified to Helen Mirren who has yet to lose a precursor. She's as sure a bet as we've had since Susan Sarandon for Dead Man Walking.

Eddie Murphy's gotten enough notices to keep him in the running for Best Supporting Actor but his chances of a win have dwindled significantly without a single critics prize. Instead, Mark Wahlberg has begun to ascend as the dark horse finisher. If he gets a nod from SAG, he could easily bump out any one of the five listed who doesn't get such a mention. Supporting Actress, however, has not changed in its outlook. Hudson has picked up enough critics prizes and has had enough press to virtually assure her as a winner. The Babel girls will likely cancel each other out, Catherine O'Hara didn't pick up an expected Globe nod and Blanchett won for The Aviator recently enough that a second win so soon is unlikely.

Until the next round of critics prizes as well as the much needed guild awards, this year remains as unexpectedly shaken up as any year we've seen in recent memory. All but the Best Actress category are incredibly fluid and could see paradigm shifts with any slight breeze.

Also added are the 7 films that are vying for the Visual Effects award. The Academy has announced the bake-off finalists and they are the only seven films listed in my hopefuls listed for Visual Effects now.

79th Academy Awards: Hopefuls

-Wesley Lovell (December 16, 2006)

Golden Globe Nominations

The Golden Globe Nominations are in and boy are there some shocks!

With 7 nominations, three in acting categories, Babel took the lead in this year's race. Though it's unclear if the film will translate that to very many wins, it's still an impressive total. The Departed came in second with six nominations and Dreamgirls took the third place spot with five.

The big shock is that Bill Condon FAILED to earn a Best Director nomination which drops him from serious contention for his film Dreamgirls. Sure, he'll probably still be nominatd if DGA agrees but his chances of a win are tiny with only legendary director Roman Polanski the only director to win the Oscar for Best Director that wasn't also nominated by the HFPA since 1973.

Ben Affleck is back in contention with his well deserved nomination for Hollywoodland. Mark Wahlberg emerges as a surprise contender for a Supporting nomination with a double nomination for supporting actresses in babel a growing likelihood.

79th Academy Awards: Precursors
Precursor History: Golden Globe History
Precursor History: Golden Globe Statistics

-Wesley Lovell (December 14, 2006)

Broadcast Film Critics Association, San Francisco Film Critics and More

Today's announcement of the Broadcast Film Critics Association nominations mark the first chance many of us have of looking into the eyes of the Academy. The BFCA has similar tastes and this slate should add some fodder to the speculation.

But how accurate are they? Let's take a brief look at the top six categories.

For Best Picture, the BFCA is spot-on. In the 10 years of nominations data, only three times has this group NOT featured all five eventual Best Picture nominees in its lineup. In 2001, Gosford Park didn't make their list. In 2000 it was Chocolat and in 1996 it was Secrets & Lies. There is little reason to expect this to occur again, so for all intents and purposes, Best Picture may be isolated to these ten films.

Best Actor is a little less certain, with only a 78% effective rate (compared to 94% on Best Picture). They've shorn up their expectations in the last three years, but at least two or three of their list may not make the final. The same thing could be said for Best Actress, which has a 80% success rate.

Even Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress have the same effectiveness (77% and 81% respectively). Less certain is Best Director. The BFCA is not known for great predictions in that category with only a 68% success rate. Expect approximately three or four of their selections to also receive Oscar nominations.

For the remaining categories, outcomes are even less certain. With only half the potential candidates of the Academy's screenplay award featured here, you'd think they'd be a little more prescient, but they are less so. On average only four of their selections also pick up nods with the Academy. That's out of 10 possible selections.

They are terrible with Original Score, yielding on average half of the final nominees. Song is even less accurate featuring a 45% success rate, so two to three nominees might come from this list. They are decent with Animated Film predictions, matching roughly 77% of the time.

Abysmal is an appropriate descriptor for the Foreign Film category yielding seldom more than one match each year. With Apocalypto and Letters from Iwo Jima ineligible, there are only four possible contenders. However, they are four strong contenders that could all end up breaking the BFCA's cycle of bad luck. Documentary Feature is a little more accurate. 60% is better than Foreign's 26% but no master stroke. They average two to three Oscar matches. This year, only An Inconvenient Truth and Shut Up & Sing are on the Oscar short list, but both are likely nominees.

Also, the San Francisco Film Critics announced their winners today. Little Children was selected their top film. Otherwise, their selections aren't terribly noteworthy.

The Golden Globe nominations are in two days and normally I would wait until they release to alter my predictions, but enough has occurred in the last week that I think it's time for an update, which you can find through the link below.

79th Academy Awards: Oscar Hopefuls
79th Academy Awards: Precursors
79th Academy Awards: Precursors Tallies

-Wesley Lovell (December 12, 2006)

New York Critics Announced, Precursors Updated

The New York Critics have entered their verdict on the best films and performances of the year. United 93 picks up its second critics prize. However, if you'll notice the two orgs that chose the film were heavily involved in 9/11: Washington DC critics and New York critics.

Forest Whitaker and Helen Mirren are quickly moving into front-runner positions with the Academy. Having won every prize thus far makes them virtually unstoppable. Nominations guaranteed. Wins likely.

Jennifer Hudson's performance in the critics groups, even if her film hasn't been recognized, is now in a great position to take the trophy for Best Supporting Actress. The Supporting Actor award gains no clarification as the awards seem to be all over the place. Djimon Hounsou has become a serious contender for Blood Diamond.

Martin Scorsese has to be considered a lead conteder for the Oscar for Best Director if it weren't for his dismal performance in past derbies. He won both Los Angeles and New York critics awards for GoodFellas back in 1990 but still failed to take the prize. With both The Aviator and Gangs of New York he was expected to win that long-overdue Oscar. However, he remains Oscar-less. Not even Alfred Hitchcock, Stanley Kubrick or Robert Altman could ever win an elusive competitive Oscar so being ignored certianly isn't a bad thing.

Two more major announcements are coming this week. The Broadcast Film Critics and Golden Globes both announce their nominations. They will announce Tuesday and Thursday respectively.

Also updated today is the Precursor Tallies page that will help everyone keep track of the prizes in each category.

79th Academy Awards: Precursors Tallies
79th Academy Awards: Precursors

-Wesley Lovell (December 11, 2006)

Various Critics Awards Announced

Five groups announced their year's best lists. The biggest of the group is the Los Angeles Film Critics Association which picked Letters from Iwo Jima as their top film. Actor went to Forest Whitaker and Sacha Baron Cohen. Actress went to Helen Mirren. United 93's Paul Greengrass took the director's prize.

The American Film Institute weighed in with its 10 best films. Noticably absent is The Departed. Flags of Our Fathers was ignored in favor of Eastwood's other film Letters from Iwo Jima. Surprisingly included were The Devil Wears Prada and Inside Man.

Also announcing were the Washington DC Area Film Critics Association, the Boston Society of FIlm Critics and the New York Online Film Critics. Each organization picked a different film as their top choice. DC selected United 93, Boston selected The Departed and New York Online Critics selected The Queen. They all picked the same actor and actress. Forest Whitaker and Helen Mirren are possibly now the front runners of their races this year.

For more details, check the Precursors page. After tomorrow's announcement of the New York Film Critics Circle, I will be posting the first full list of all winners compared.

79th Academy Awards: Precursors

-Wesley Lovell (December 10, 2006)

Best Original Song Contenders

Today, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences announced the following list of songs eligibl for the Original Song award at this year's Oscars.

Sometime over the weekend or early next week, I'll take the below list and incorporate it into my Hopefuls list.

"Believe It" - The Heart of the Game
"The Best" - Everyone's Hero
"The Book I Write" - Stranger than Fiction
"Broken Bridges" - Broken Bridges
"Chan Chan" - Water
"Circle in the Sand" - Friends with Money
"Coming Back to You" - Deja Vu
"Definition of Love" - Akeelah and the Bee
"Dreamz with a Z" - American Dreamz
"Encarnacion" - Nacho Libre
"Every Word" - Wordplay
"Family of Me" - Over the Hedge
"A Father's Way" - The Pursuit of Happyness
"The Girl in Byakkoya - White Tiger Field" - Paprika
"Heist" - Over the Hedge
"Hillbilly Holla" - Barnyard
"Hollywood Familia" - Hollywood Familia
"I Belong" - Open Season
"I Need to Wake Up" - An Inconvenient Truth
"In Rosa Vernat Lilium" - The Nativity Story
"It's a Fight" - Rocky Balboa
"Ju Hua Tai" - Curse of the Golden Flower
"Keep Holding On" - Eragon
"Khalbali" - Rang de Basanti
"Kingdom of Love" - One Night with the King
"Listen" - Dreamgirls
"A Lonely Man" - Don't Come Knocking
"Love You I Do" - Dreamgirls
"Luka Chuppi" - Rang de Basanti
"The Motion" - 3 Needles
"My Little Girl" - Flicka
"Never Gonna Break My Faith" - Bobby
"Never Let Go" - The Guardian
"O Kazakhstan" - Borat Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan
"Open Your Heart" - Saving Shiloh
"Ordinary Miracle" - Charlotte's Web
"Our Town" - Cars
"Patience" - Dreamgirls
"Philosophy" - Step Up
"PJ & Rooster" - Idlewild
"Quest for Love" - Arthur and the Invisibles
"Real Gone" - Cars
"Really Nice Day" - The Wild
"Shine on 'Em" - Blood Diamond
"The Song of the Heart" - Happy Feet
"Star Mile" - The Last Kiss
"Still" - Over the Hedge
"Suenos" - Hollywood Familia
"Sweet Music" - Glory Road
"Til the End of Time" - Little Miss Sunshine
"Tonight" - Night at the Museum
"Try Not to Remember" - Home of the Brave
"Upside Down" - Curious George
"When You Taught Me How to Dance" - Miss Potter
"Won't Let You Fall" - Poseidon
"You Know My Name" - Casino Royale

-Wesley Lovell (December 8, 2006)

National Board of Review Announced

A surprise win by Letters of Iwo Jima tops an otherwise surprising list of winners from the NBR.

Frontrunner Dreamgirls and royal biopic The Queen failed to place in the Top 10 films of the year, though NBR's Top 10 fluctuates in its predictability capabilities.

Djimon Hounsou is a surprise contender for Blood Diamond after picking up a Supporting Actor nomination.

Little more can be said about these nominations except there are some notable snubs. The Best list to use to find your five Best Picture winners is the Broadcast Film Critics (otherwise known as the Critics' Choice). They have, since 1996, only three times failed to feature all five Best Pic nominees in their year-end Top 10. When they come out with their nominations, we'll see a better picture of the landscape.

79th Academy Awards: Precursors

-Wesley Lovell (December 6, 2006)

Annie Award Nominations

Yesterday, the animation industry's highest honor, the Annie Awards, announced its 34th annual list. In 23 categories, 11 for feature films, the awards saw one major trend. A Scanner Darkly wasn't in the mix. Long considered a likely fifth nominee, Scanner Darkly suffers the same fate as its counterpart Waking Life which also walked away with nothing from the Annies and was missing from the final Oscar list.

Contrary to the press, who obviously didn't look clearly at the nomination list, Cars was the top nominee with 9 mentions. Flushed Away was widely reported as having tied Disney's animated effort but when looking at the list, its ninth nod was for video game animation, which is clearly a recognition for the video game manufacturers, not the motion picture industry. Thus, Flushed Away earned a mere eight nominations, tying instead with Over the Hedge.

Monster House came in fourth with seven mentions while Open Season received six. The only sequel placing high in the nominations pack was Ice Age: The Meltdown which came in just below Open Season with five. Notably lacking in nominations, Happy Feet earned only two nominations: one for best feature and the second, and more bizarre choice, for best writing.

The Annie Awards, as you can see in the statistics link below, is not known for its nomination predictability. They are weak in that arena, especially for animated short films; however, they are quite strong (as are many other organizations) in correctly aligning their Best Animated Feature prize with the Oscars, having not mismatched in their side-by-side history with the Academy Awards.

Tomorrow (Wednesday), the National Board of Review will put out its list of the year's best, becoming the first critics org to do so. The National Board is both a good and bad predictor. The NBR is tremendously great at predicting Oscar nominations, but not so wonderful with wins. So look for a large number of Oscar nominees to be present in tomorrow's announcement.

Please also note that today's scheduled Best Picture review update may be delayed to later this week due to a great deal of Statistics and History prep work I have to do for this week's precursors.

79th Academy Awards: Precursors
Precursors: Annie Awards History
Precursors: Annie Awards Statistics

-Wesley Lovell (December 5, 2006)

The Satellite Award Nominations

UPDATE BELOW

There are few organizations that carry as little prestige or bearing on the Oscars than the International Press Academy. Their Satellite Awards were splintered from the Golden Globes because they didn't feel their views were properly represented. This is their 11th year presenting awards and there isn't much herein of which to be proud.

First off, they have ignored studio placement decisions and put the not-a-lead Leonardo DiCaprio in support for this role in The Departed. Also of note is the Supporting categories are now genre-free. For their first 10 years, the Satellites had them split between Drama and Comedy/Musical like their picture and lead acting categories. That is no more. Also notable is Toni Collette's push as lead instead of support where she is currently being pushed.

Dreamgirls tied Flags of Our Fathers for most nominations at 10 each. Babel came in second with 9. The Departed and Little Miss Sunshine were a distant third with five nominations. Coming in right behind with four nods each were Little Children, The Queen, Volver and, believe it or not, X-Men: The Last Stand.

Other notable snubs include these early favorites: Toby Jones and Sandra Bullock in Infamous, Ben Affleck in Hollywoodland and The History Boys.

[UPDATE, 11/2/06] Further proving their reputation as second-rate, the International Press Academy, without fanfare, has revised its list of nominations. Other than some name spelling corrections, one most glaring error was found: Kate Winslet actually had been nominated for Little Children which seemed quite a bit odd when her film and her co-star Patrick Wilson were nominated.

Over the weekend, a number of critics orgs may be passing out plaudits. We'll have to see who does what when before we know when the next official release will be.

79th Academy Awards: Precursors
Precursors: Satellite Awards History
Precursors: Satellite Awards Statistics

-Wesley Lovell (December 1, 2006)

The First Precursor Awards

Today, Film Independent announced the nominees for its Independent Spirit Awards. Several films earn prominent bids that should help bolster their chances at the Oscars. Others see their chances diminish.

Half Nelson received prominent bids including nods for its leads Shareeka Epps and Ryan Gosling as well as nods for Best Feature, Best Director (Ryan Fleck) and Best First Screenplay.

Little Miss Sunshine also upped its prominence with bids for Best Feature, Best Director (Jonathan Dayton & Valerie Faris), Best First Screenplay and Supporting Actor nominations for both Paul Dano and Alan Arkin.

Catharine O'Hara picked up For Your Consideration's only nomination giving her a leg up on competition in the Supporting Actress race where she's competing at the Oscars. The confusion may be that O'Hara received her nod for Lead Actress.

Robert Altman's unexpected nod for A Prairie Home Companion may signal an option for the directors branch to give him one last honor at the Osars.

Films that lost ground with these nominations include Little Children, Bobby and Infamous. We know that Infamous was eligible because of the inclusion of Daniel Craig for Supporting Actor. However, neither contenders Toby Jones or Sandra Bullock earned nods. Little Children and Bobby didn't get any nods thus generating the question: were they eligible? Budget wise, both films qualified but who knows with the bizarre rules FIlm Independent has imposed in the past.

Thursday will see the next big precursor come along when the International Press Academy announces their nominations for the Satellite Awards.

Also updating with this edition is my hopefuls page which reflects the above shifts in the schedule.

79th Academy Awards: Hopefuls
79th Academy Awards: Precursors

-Wesley Lovell (November 28, 2006)

Third November Hopefuls Update

It has already been an eventful November and changes are coming at us from every direction. Flags of Our Fathers performed miserably at the box office and it appears that Warner Bros., in response, has moved Letters of Iwo Jima, the Clint Eastwood companion piece to Flags, to an Oscar-qualifying run in December. While there is no indication this move has anything to do with the box office, it's clear that they want to wage one Oscar campaign for both films limiting their expenditures.

Sadly, this means that Letters from Iwo Jima which seemed like the more promising of the two pictures won't have an Oscar push next year where it would have been a formidable Best Picture contender. Instead, the two films will be competing against each other for consideration. Since the Academy is predominantly American, it is unlikely that Iwo Jima will be the top contender of the two. One person benefits greatly. That's Ken Watanabe. While Flags has no obvious leads and is likely to feature Supporting Actor contenders only, Watanabe appears to be a strong contender.

Several other films appear to be unlikely to release this year, thus have been removed. I've also taken out quite a number of films and performances that are unlikely to be nominated in any case, thus shoring up the contenders.

It's also time for me to update my Original Song contenders. Thanks to several posters on my message boards, I have compiled a relatively detailed list of potentials. I've not selected all contenders as that could be tedious and unrewarding. I think I've selected a great group of potential nominees.

There are many udates this time. There are even more changes than my last update. To that end, I'm also accompanying this list with a mock up of the "Total Nomination Count" based on my current predictions.

Hopefuls: Oscar Hopefuls

-Wesley Lovell (November 20, 2006)

Mid-November Hopefuls

With yesterday's announcement of the 15 documentary feature finalists, it was time to perform an update of my hopefuls. Several updates were in order, actually. With word from the Dreamgirls screening incredibly positive, Anika Noni Rose gets a boost into my nomination predictions.

I've also added a new "chances" section that list the chances a given contender could be nominated. Locks are nominations that I cannot foresee changing. Near-Locks are the closest to being sure things and a few early awards will lock them in. Any of the Good designees could be replaced by any other to fill out the various slots of a category. Fair nominees need significant box office or critical support to push in for a nomination and also need to have those above them eliminated to be considered. Poor are long shot contenders that will likely not see a nomination but could benefit for some sudden burst of luck.

Only the top 7 categories (Best Picture, Animated Feature, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress) have a "chance" listed. All other categories remain as they were prior to this update. With Oscar season in full swing, these kinds of changes could come up mor efrequently.

Hopefuls: Oscar Hopefuls

-Wesley Lovell (November 16, 2006)

Documentary Feature Short-List

This just in: The Documentary Feature list of 15 contenders has been released. I have not updated my hopefuls page yet, but will do so tomorrow.

Five films will be selected from this group of films. Please note that the Academy has announced that 81 films had been submitted for consideration and these 15 advance to the next stage, thus why some films you might have expected do not appear here.

"Blindsight"
"Can Mr. Smith Get to Washington Anymore?"
"Deliver Us from Evil"
"The Ground Truth"
"An Inconvenient Truth"
"Iraq in Fragments"
"Jesus Camp"
"Jonestown: The Life and Death of People's Temple"
"My Country, My Country"
"Shut Up & Sing"
"Sisters in Law"
"Storm of Emotions"
"The Trials of Darryl Hunt"
"An Unreasonable Man"
"The War Tapes"

-Wesley Lovell (November 15, 2006)

Early November Hopefuls

Today, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences announced 16 films that have been submitted for the Animated Feature category. Three films (Arthur and the Invisibles, Happy Feet and Paprika) have not opened for their one-week qualifying run but are expected to do so. If all three do, the category could feature up to five nominees. If one of them falters, the category would have the maximum number of nominations reduced to three.

As with most such announcements, it has prompted me to look at my nominations predictions and make new evaluations. Today's update not only features a revised Best Animated Feature line-up but also includes the Best Foreign Film update which has been pending some time.

There are also a number of other changes apparent in the list. Although I last updated the list on the website on October 14, I have made adjustments to the list since then and am now including those changes herein.

Throughout the month of November, buzz is going to rise and diminish on various films and performances. Several will be based on critical reaction as the movies make their way to the box office and others will be based on the strength of critical support. Certainly not until December will we truly understand the power of the critics when they start selecting their best of the year.

Hopefuls: Oscar Hopefuls

-Wesley Lovell (November 3, 2006)

Foreign Language Submissions Announced

The Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences announced today the 61 submissions for the Foreign Language Film Oscar. These films will be screened by members of the Foreign Film committee in New York and Los Angeles and they will select 5 films to represent the category at the upcoming Oscar Nominations.

The Academy also makes specific note that Finnish submission "Lights in the Dusk" was pulled by director Aki Kaurismaki. However, they indicate they are going to try and convince him to allow the film to compete. We'll see if they are able to convince him but maybe they should use the argument that Finland now has NO representation since the deadline for submissions had already passed. We can hope he'll change his mind.

I will let you know as soon as the Academy confirms whether Kaurismaki changes his mind or not. I'll also be waiting until later this month to update the Hopefuls page with these submissions and my predictions for nominations in this category.

79th Oscars: Foreign Language Film Submissions

-Wesley Lovell (October 19, 2006)

The Mid-October Oscar Hopefuls Update

With so many changes having occurred over the past week (some frontrunners slowing down and others emerging), it's time for an update. Now, those of you who are also posters on my message board may have heard me tell VanHelsing (a HUGE Sandra Bullock fan) that I would not be updating until after several high profile releases came out throughout the month. Well, I didn't think I was going to make any updates but here we are.

I recently got to hear Jennifer Hudson's rendition of Dreamgirls' showstopping number "And I'm Telling You I'm Not Going" and all I can say is Wow! Well, not exactly just "wow". If her acting lives up one iota to her undeniably brilliant vocal performance, give Hudson an Oscar now. With that one (possibly unintentional) leak, I believe Dreamgirls may be the second musical this century to win a boat load of Oscars.

Now to some of the other changes in this edition. The previews for The History Boys and Bobby recently showed up on Apple Trailers and they cast a bit of light on both productions' chances at the Oscars. I felt The History Boys didn't look as good as it should. Sure it's the Tony Awards' most honored play in decades but Death of a Salesman (the play it is tied with) never managed a best picture nomination itself, though the 1951 version did manage five nominations. The History Boys trailer is very reminiscent of Dead Poets Society and if the film bears any actual resemblance to that Best Picture nominee, voters could be turned off.

Meanwhile, Bobby may be emerging as a strong Best Picture contender. The preview makes it look less gimmicky than the descriptions I've read. The huge ensemble gives the film a good bit of credence but if director Emilio Estevez proves he can keep such an unwieldy group of people together and keep the story on track, it could be one of the year's big success stories.

Talk about Bullock has increased dramatically and it seems more and more likely she'll capture a Supporting Actress nomination even if her film doesn't match the awards potential of last year's Capote. There are other changes throughout, so take a look and enjoy but expect more changes as the end of the month rolls around and November gets going.

Hopefuls: Oscar Hopefuls

-Wesley Lovell (October 14, 2006)

Documentary Short Subject Short-List

It's hard to believe that the Academy of Motion PIcture Arts and Sciences would already be making finalist decisions for Academy Awards nominations but a press release from the Academy today has announced eight films in competition for Documentary Short Subject award.

From three to five nominees will be selected from the following list. My Hopefuls page has been updated to reflect these choices.

The Blood of Yingzhou District
Dear Talula
The Diary of Immaculée
Phoenix Dance
Recycled Life
Rehearsing a Dream
A Revolving Door
Two Hands

Hopefuls: Oscar Hopefuls

-Wesley Lovell (October 11, 2006)

Big Hopefuls Update

Toronto and Venice have come and gone and the year's Oscar slate looks crowded, yet empty. There are dozens of pictures and performances that have either gained reputation or lost it in the aftermath of two of the biggest international film festivals in the world.

Films like The Departed, Flags of Our Fathers, The History Boys and Dreamgirls didn't show at these festivals, so their shots at Oscar glory have not been altered. They remain, as always, strong contenders.

The films that benefited from exposure include Stephen Frears' The Queen, Pedro Almodovar's Volver, Christopher Guest's For Your Consideration and Alejandro González Iñárritu's Babel. All of these films have questionable Best Picture potential (save The Queen) but they all feature contenders that could figure in the acting races.

Meanwhile, Ridley Scott's A Good Year, Brian DePalma's The Black Dahlia and Steven Zaillian's All the King's Men received either severely mixed notices or highly negative. Each seem to be fading quickly (with All the King's Men virtually dead at the ballot box).

Here are the big changes on this month's list. The Queen emerged as such a talked-about contender that it's the only new entry in my predictions for Best Picture nominations. However, For Your Consideration and Children of Men have been added as potential nominees. All the King's Men, The Black Dahlia and Hollywoodland have been similarly removed and that's true of most categories.

The Animated Film category finds Everyone's Hero removed as a nominee to be replaced by Flushed Away. Cars now seems poised to be the big winner this year.

In directing, the changes almost mirror the Best Picture alterations. Though, Almodovar remains the odd-man-out director while Stephen Frears remains the director without a nod for a Best Picture nominee.

The acting categories saw some significant changes. Peter O'Toole not only emerged from Venice as a likely Best Actor nominee, but the favorable reviews portend a possible career Oscar (nevermind the Lifetime Achievement Award they already gave him). Without some year-end awards, I may very soon move Meryl Streep to also-ran and position Cate Blanchett, who I just removed for Penelope Cruz, or some other strong contender into the Best Actress spot. As the year drifts on, the Best Actress category seems to be building momentum for its most crowded year in several. Ben Affleck also came out of Venice with a trophy and thus a renewed interest that his career-reviving turn as George Reeves could propel him to his first acting nomination. For Supporting Actress, we have Sharon Stone receiving the lion's share of attention for her work in Bobby while sentimental favorite Catharine O'Hara is poised to reap a long-deserved nomination.

There are dozens of other changes in the list, but I'll let you discover those for yourselves. This is shaping up to be a rather interesting year at the Oscars with any number of films that could become Best Picture. When the critics trophies start emerging in December, we'll know a lot better what the true front-runners are. Until then, enjoy making lists and debating them unceasingly.

Site History: 79th Academy Awards

-Wesley Lovell (September 19, 2006)

And So It Ends

It is finished. The update everyone, or at least a small sect out there, has been waiting for is here. The 69th Academy Awards page is now updated to the new format. Additionally, all of the pages have seen a reworking of their page layout and some new pictures have been added. Check out the Site History page for all of the latest updates including the debut of the 79th Academy Awards page eight months prior to its normal debut. And thus ends two weeks of toiling to bring my site up to date.

There is still work to do but it can wait for another time as I focus on other matters currently at hand. Stay tuned for the post-Venice/Tornoto update of my Hopefuls list within the next two weeks. And, at the beginning of October, prepare for the beginning of my sixteen-week Best Picture review sprint.

As the weeks go by, many new films will release and I'll give you my reviews of those films just as soon as I can. I'll keep you posted.

-Wesley Lovell (September 7, 2006)

One More To Go

The 70th Academy Awards section update has been one of the most difficult yet. There were lots of differences between my original methods and my current methods of organization. However, it has been completed. This leaves the 69th as the only year I haven't completed. Because of my difficulties with the 70th, it may be Friday before I complete the final update.

Site History: 70th Academy Awards

-Wesley Lovell (September 6, 2006)

New Week: New Updates

The end is near! Today's update features two historical eras updated. Both the 72nd and 71st Academy Awards histories in the Site History secion have been updated. This leaves only two more sections to complete: 70th and 69th. It'll be a great thing to be done with these and I anticipate a completion of Wednesday or Thursday for all of this.

Once this is done, I can start focusing on a new update for the reviews section and eventually a "Look Update" for the Precursor History section. And, in regards to the reviews update, not only will I be posting reviews for several films I've seen this year, I'll also be starting a 16-week Best Picture Memories series. Targeting to start around October 3, 2006 and leading up to the Tuesday before nominations, I'll be reviewing five Best Picture winners (or re-posting already written reviews) a week starting with Wings and ending with Crash and ultimately a ranked list of the best and worst Best Picture winners in history.

Site History: 72nd Academy Awards
Site History: 71st Academy Awards

-Wesley Lovell (September 4, 2006)

This Week's Final Update

Our per diem update of the website with our site history continues today with an update of the 73rd Oscars. The updates will continue throughout the next couple of weeks. Also coming in the next few weeks will be periodic reviews updates of every Best Picture winner since 1927 (except Cavalcade which I have not yet been able to find on DVD). I just recently got caught up with the first 20 years (with 1947's Gentleman's Agreement), so the next 50 should be a blast.

Site History: 73rd Academy Awards

-Wesley Lovell (September 1, 2006)

Site History and Oscar Hopefuls Update

When this site was redesigned, a few aspects fell down a deep, dark chasm from which there is no return. I had full intentions of updating my Site History area with the previous years' Academy Awards race data (including nomination and winner predictions, past foreign language film entries, precursors and more); However, the fates conspired against me and until recently, I had forgotten all about them.

I have begun a nearly daily update of this section. It started on Tuesday when I updated the News section, I also took time to fix some problems with the 78th Academy Awards Section. I also updated the 76th entry. Wednesday, I updated the 75th year's data. Today, you will find the 74th Academy Awards area updated along with a special update to this year's Oscar Hopefuls.

Yesterday, I put up a blurb for my August edition of the Oscar Hopefuls. However, in looking at my new predictions, it appears they aren't very spectacular as no major release dates have been changed or updated and no new projects have worked their way into the light. Additionally, what few change I have made are considerably minor.

Dreamgirls has now shifted to the Best Picture leader as Clint Eastwood's two-part Iwo Jima tale (Flags of Our Fathers and Letters from Iwo Jima) appear to be heading the Kill Bill route. Iwo Jima is probably going to be moving to 2007 to give Eastwood two chances at the Oscar instead of diminishing his chances to one with a double-release this year. Voters may wait until 2007 to honor Eastwood for his tale for the Japanese perspective. One part of me says this is likely. Another part of me worries that his Amero-centric version releasing this year could garner all the awards attention and leave Letters to rot next year. But with the increased likelihood voters will be able to honor him next year, his chances for a win this year seem dimmed.

The History Boys passes The Good German to land in the top 5 most likely Best Picture slots. With a Tony award for Best Play and a likeable cast of Brits, History seems a good bet for Oscar attention. Monster House replaces The Ant Bully as one of the five most likely Animated Features. Pedro Almodovar now takes the position of the odd-man-out director for Volver which is getting fantastic notices. Ed Harris and Peter O'Toole, Oscar's perennial bridesmaids both receive attention as Best Actor possibilities.

Meryl Streep, though much more likely to earn a nomination in the weaker Supporting Actress field seems to be poised to take a nomination for her work in The Devil Wears Prada extending her record nomination run. She has been moved to Lead Actress. She could end up back in the Supporting race depending on advertising as Oscar season starts up but for now, her diva reputation could land her a leading nomination. Also of note, whether it will actually get released this year or not is anyone's guess, is the Dakota Fanning rape tale tentatively titled Hounddog. The project screams Oscar for the half-pint actress, though some may be upset over the gratuitousness of the project and sometimes Oscar voters reject acknowledge manipulation (though it has always worked for Harvey Weinstein). Meanwhile, Laura Dern and Penelope Cruz enter the Best Actress field making it a rich tapestry of fine actresses that could create plenty of surprises.

Jack Nicholson makes a run for another Oscar nomination for The Departed as a Supporting Actor. Also joining the nominee potentials is former Oscar nominee James Cromwell who's role in The Queen seems just too juicy to pass up. History Boys actor Samuel Barnett makes his first appearance on the shortlist of hopefuls. Patricia Clarkson takes on a role for which Mercedes McCambridge won an Oscar. She's got a nod for Pieces of April under her belt but it's a rough climb to a nomination and if All the King's Men really bombs, she'll be out pretty quick.

David Lynch picks up a potential Original Screenplay nod for Inland Empire. Pirates of the Caribbean 2 loses its spot in the Art Direction category to the Kennedy biopic Bobby but gains a spot in the Visual Effects category.

Well, that's all for this month's update. Please follow the links below to get to any of the altered areas.

Site History: 78th Academy Awards
Site History: 76th Academy Awards
Site History: 75th Academy Awards
Site History: 74th Academy Awards
2006 Oscar Hopefuls (for the 79th Academy Awards)

-Wesley Lovell (August 31, 2006)

A Much Needed Update

It has been unfortunate that I have been so far behind in updating my site. A lot of it is redesign. Some of it is laziness. Regardless of thse facts, I'm going to try and start speeding up review posting with approximately five per week for the next two or three weeks. This week, you actually get six. Cars, The Da Vinci Code, Doogal, The Lake House, Pirates of the Caribbean 2 and Superman Returns. Check out the Reviews page for more information.

-Wesley Lovell (July 25, 2006)

Changes to this Year's Oscar Hopefuls

Not surprisingly, it's only been a month and there have already been changes. Thanks to the Unofficial Academy Awards Discussion Board participants for pointing out a few errors (Jude Law and Sean Penn have been swapped) and making a few suggestions (welcome to the list Goya's Ghosts and The History Boys). I have also, based on the wide array of potential Animated Film nominees, increased my predictions for that catgegory to five.

A few other changes been made but none are very earth shattering. The major change came from the Academy this week. Two changes were made but only one affects this Hopefuls list (the Foreign Language Film category will now be screened in two stages allowing New York-based members to participate in the process).

The major change is that the Sound Editing category (primarily for sound effects) has been increased to five nominees and will no longer be a "bake-off" like the Makeup and Visual Effects categories still are (get your act together, Academy...Sound Editing was not the category that needed the change...Visual Effects was). This has now been reflected in the Hopefuls list with a new slate of picks.

Check out my Hopefuls list here.

-Wesley Lovell (July 7, 2006)

10 Years and a New Design

In 1996, I started my own website devoted to the Academy Awards and its history. I've gone through many changes over the years but in celebration of my 10th Anniversary, I thought I'd introduce my first new design in three years.

Mostly everything remains. The Academy Award nominations and winners have been removed because the Academy has created a wonderful search engine that does what I wanted to do better. You can find a link in the new Resources section. There, you can also find links to various major entertainment organizations as well as other Oscar-themed sites.

The Reviews section has been updated. I've organized much of the information in a way that should make it easier to find what you're looking for. The Articles section has been added. This past year, I wrote my first detailed article on the Oscar race. It was fairly well received, so periodically, I'll be adding new articles to that section.

Award History is the modified new Precursor History section. This will go over the various awards with comparisons to the Academy Awards. Site History will look back at the last 9 years of predictions, precursors and other information I've provided to my readers over the years.

New Releases is my newest offering. In an effort to make sure you have access to the latest information, this section will feature a calendar of upcoming film releases, DVD releases, books, music and more.

So, welcome to OG X!

-Wesley Lovell (May 22, 2006)

79th Academy Awards Key Dates

The Key Dates for the 79th Annual Academy Awards has been announced.

Friday, December 1, 2006:	Official Screen Credits Forms Due
Tuesday, December 26, 2006:	Nominations ballots mailed.
Saturday, January 13, 2007:	Nominations polls close 5 p.m. PST.
Tuesday, January 23, 2007:	Nominations announced 5:30 a.m. PST, Samuel Goldwyn Theater
Wednesday, January 31, 2007:	Final ballots mailed.
Monday, February 5, 2007:	Nominees Luncheon
Saturday, February 10, 2007:	Scientific and Technical Awards Dinner
Tuesday, February 20, 2007:	Final polls close 5 p.m. PST.
Sunday, February 25, 2007:	79th Annual Academy Awards Presentation

-Wesley Lovell (May 22, 2006)

About Me

I'm 30 years old now. It's hard to believe I was 20 when I started this site but there it is. I was born, raised and still live in Springfield, MO. I received my BS in Communications/Mass Media from Southwest Missouri State University (recently changed to Missouri State University) with an Emphasis in Film Studies.

My first encounter with the Academy Awards was in 1989 at the tender age of 14. I didn't get to the movies very often, but I heard spectacular things about a film called Driving Miss Daisy and went to see the film. I remember sitting in the Battlefield Mall 6 (now closed, as are many of Springfield's long lost theaters) and telling my mother that it was nominated for the Academy Awards.

The night of the Academy Awards, I remember being captivated by the sheer excitement of wanting my favorite film to win. When it did, I accidentally squeezed our dog too hard and made him yelp. From that point forward, I was hooked. I started following the Awards closely.

In 1996, as the internet grew in popularity, I decided to create my own website, having just gotten access to the 'net for the first time. I started with Geocities. It was a free hosting site and I was just a kid (so 20 isn't really a kid anymore, but I still felt like it), so I had no money. It was very rudimentary. I learned .html coding just so I could create the site.

Now, it's 10 years on and I'm still running the site. I've had my domain name registered for about 5 years now and have had many different hosts since then. While my online history hasn't always been a pleasant one, I won't soon forget the power this medium has. I've made friends around the world, I've grown and developed into a fantastic film critic (IMO).

I joined the Online Film Critics Society in 1997 when it was founded. This year, I was elected to the Governing Committee of the organization and I'm focusing efforts in both directions. Success is fleeting and shortly after being elected to the Governing Committee, it was announced that my day job, after 5 years, was being terminated. They were shipping our jobs to the Philippines. It's not a pleasant change of events but it's given me a bit of time to focus my efforts on redesigning my site and attempting to make a living out of my passion.

If you want to help support The Oscar Guy, you're welcome to do so. I present my website free of charge, so there is no requirement. However, if you do want to give your support. Words of encouragement are fantastic but donations will help me keep my site operational. In the menu on the left site is a PayPal button.

-Wesley Lovell (May 22, 2006)